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Why Costco's Warehouse Growth Story Is Far From Over
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Key Takeaways
Costco expects to end fiscal 2026 with 940 warehouses, up from 914 at the year's start.
Larger relocations, more parking and expanded gas stations aim to remove bottlenecks and add capacity.
China, Korea, Japan and Europe support a five- to 10-year international expansion runway.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) continues to expand its physical footprint at a sustained pace of warehouse openings. The company is targeting more than 30 net-new locations annually, supported by a growing real estate pipeline across domestic and international markets. For fiscal 2026, Costco expects 26 net new openings, with two previously planned warehouses shifting into fiscal 2027 rather than being canceled.
Costco began fiscal 2026 with 914 warehouses and expects to finish the year with 940. Most of the fiscal-year openings are planned in the United States, where the warehouse count is estimated to reach 648, while Canada and other international markets also contribute.
The opportunity extends beyond simply entering new markets. Costco is relocating selected high-volume warehouses into larger facilities with more parking and expanded gas stations. These investments are intended to remove operational bottlenecks and create additional selling capacity.
International expansion provides another long runway. Management sees meaningful opportunities across China, Korea, Japan, Spain, France and the United Kingdom, while Canada’s development pipeline is already mapped out for several years. Costco expects strong international expansion to continue over the next five to 10 years, suggesting its warehouse growth strategy remains broad, deliberate and far from mature.
Costco currently operates 933 warehouses, including 641 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 115 in Canada, 43 in Mexico, 37 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 20 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, seven in China, five in Spain, three in France, two in Sweden, and one each in Iceland and New Zealand.
What the Latest Metrics Say About Costco
Costco, which competes with Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) and Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) , has seen its shares drop 6.4% over the past three months compared with the industry’s 2.5% decline. While shares of Dollar General have risen 1.3%, those of Target have jumped 5.7% in the aforementioned period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 42.27, higher than the industry’s ratio of 30.85. However, the stock is trading below its 12-month median level of 44.49, indicating some moderation in valuation despite sustained investor confidence in the stock.
Costco is trading at a premium to Target (with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.23) and Dollar General (16.39).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s current financial-year sales and earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 9.6% and 13.5%, respectively. For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate indicates a 7.8% rise in sales and 10.2% growth in earnings.
The consensus estimates for earnings per share for both the current and next fiscal year have increased by 6 cents to $20.42 and $22.50, respectively, over the past 60 days.
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Image: Bigstock
Why Costco's Warehouse Growth Story Is Far From Over
Key Takeaways
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) continues to expand its physical footprint at a sustained pace of warehouse openings. The company is targeting more than 30 net-new locations annually, supported by a growing real estate pipeline across domestic and international markets. For fiscal 2026, Costco expects 26 net new openings, with two previously planned warehouses shifting into fiscal 2027 rather than being canceled.
Costco began fiscal 2026 with 914 warehouses and expects to finish the year with 940. Most of the fiscal-year openings are planned in the United States, where the warehouse count is estimated to reach 648, while Canada and other international markets also contribute.
The opportunity extends beyond simply entering new markets. Costco is relocating selected high-volume warehouses into larger facilities with more parking and expanded gas stations. These investments are intended to remove operational bottlenecks and create additional selling capacity.
International expansion provides another long runway. Management sees meaningful opportunities across China, Korea, Japan, Spain, France and the United Kingdom, while Canada’s development pipeline is already mapped out for several years. Costco expects strong international expansion to continue over the next five to 10 years, suggesting its warehouse growth strategy remains broad, deliberate and far from mature.
Costco currently operates 933 warehouses, including 641 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 115 in Canada, 43 in Mexico, 37 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 20 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, seven in China, five in Spain, three in France, two in Sweden, and one each in Iceland and New Zealand.
What the Latest Metrics Say About Costco
Costco, which competes with Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) and Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) , has seen its shares drop 6.4% over the past three months compared with the industry’s 2.5% decline. While shares of Dollar General have risen 1.3%, those of Target have jumped 5.7% in the aforementioned period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 42.27, higher than the industry’s ratio of 30.85. However, the stock is trading below its 12-month median level of 44.49, indicating some moderation in valuation despite sustained investor confidence in the stock.
Costco is trading at a premium to Target (with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.23) and Dollar General (16.39).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s current financial-year sales and earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 9.6% and 13.5%, respectively. For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate indicates a 7.8% rise in sales and 10.2% growth in earnings.
The consensus estimates for earnings per share for both the current and next fiscal year have increased by 6 cents to $20.42 and $22.50, respectively, over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Costco currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.