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Watch These 4 Transportation Stocks for Q2 Earnings: Beat or Miss?
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Key Takeaways
LUV, CSX, UNP are expected to post an earnings beat in second-quarter 2026.
AAL expects Q2 revenue growth of more than 10%, amid solid bookings and fuel price volatility.
Sector challenges such as freight slowdown, inflation, geopolitical risks and fuel prices volatility persist.
The widely diversified Zacks Transportation sector continues to navigate through a challenging macroeconomic environment. The sector grapples with multiple headwinds, ranging from escalated expenses, inflation-induced elevated interest rates, a downturn in freight demand and supply-chain woes. Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-induced economic tensions continue to hurt consumer sentiment and growth expectations.
With inflation remaining a concern, risks associated with an economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions dampen the prospects of stocks belonging to this sector. Sluggish economic growth and inflationary woes are likely to make markets more volatile in the coming days. Due to supply-chain troubles, costs will likely continue to be steep in the future.
Fuel remains a key swing factor in near-term results. Notably, oil prices declined almost 31% during the April-June 2026 period, with oil prices down 20% during June 2026 alone. As fuel expenses represent a key input cost for any transportation player, a fall in oil prices bodes well for the bottom-line growth of airline stocks.
Given this backdrop, investors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector are keenly waiting for the results of Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV - Free Report) ), CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) , Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) andAmerican Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) – all of which are slated to be released this week.
Our quantitative model predicts an earnings beat for a company if it has a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This combination increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUV’s second-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $8.58 billion, indicating 18.38% growth year over year. Management anticipates second-quarter 2026 unit revenues to increase in the range of 16.5% to 18.5% on a year-over-year basis, with capacity up flat to up 1% year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUV’s second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 3.70% in the past 60 days to 52 cents per share. However, the consensus mark implies an upside of 20.93% from the year-ago actual. The consensus estimate lies within the company-provided guided range of 35-65 cents.
LUV is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 22. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Southwest Airlines this time around, as it has an Earnings ESP of -1.21% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 6.38% over the past 60 days to 50 cents per share. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a 13.64% upside from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.82 billion, indicating a 6.90% increase from second-quarter 2025 actuals.
CSX's second-quarter performance is expected to have benefited significantly from the upgraded Southeast Mexico Express service, driven by faster transit times, expanded market reach and enhanced network efficiency.
The expanding rail-served facility network, broader market access through new intermodal and interchange agreements, and improved network performance are expected to have further boosted the company's operational efficiency and second-quarter performance.
CSX is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, after market close. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CSX this time around, as it has an Earnings ESP of +0.95% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Earnings ESP was +1.66% and a Zacks Rank #2 when we issued our second-quarter 2026 earnings preview.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 1.91% over the past 60 days to $3.20 per share. The consensus mark for earnings implies a 5.61% rise from the year-ago actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s second-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $6.65 billion, indicating 8.09% growth year over year.
We expect the company’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in demand for services. On the contrary, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing supply-chain disruptions are also likely to have pressured the company's bottom line. The decline in shipment volumes is likely to have offset the benefits of pricing initiatives, hampering the company’s prospects in the June-end quarter of 2026.
UNP is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, before market open. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Union Pacific this time, as it has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2026 revenues is currently pegged at $16.7 billion, implying a 16% upward movement from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2026 earnings is currently pegged at 3 cents per share, indicating no change in the past 60 days. The consensus mark implies a 96.84% downward movement from the year-ago actual.
While strong bookings are likely to have aided AAL’s top-line performance in the June quarter, high labor costs are likely to have hurt the bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-fuel unit cost, or cost per available seat mile (CASM: adjusted), is pegged at 13.99 cents compared with 13.59 cents reported in the second quarter of 2025.
Despite having come down from the highs witnessed when the war between the nations was in full flow, oil prices are fluctuating, given the fragility of the interim peace deal. In this scenario, focus will also be on AAL’s guidance for the September quarter and full-year 2026.
AAL is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, before market open. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around, as AAL has an Earnings ESP of -44.74% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Earnings ESP was +67.44% when we issued our second-quarter 2026 earnings preview, and the Zacks Rank was the same.
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Watch These 4 Transportation Stocks for Q2 Earnings: Beat or Miss?
Key Takeaways
The widely diversified Zacks Transportation sector continues to navigate through a challenging macroeconomic environment. The sector grapples with multiple headwinds, ranging from escalated expenses, inflation-induced elevated interest rates, a downturn in freight demand and supply-chain woes. Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-induced economic tensions continue to hurt consumer sentiment and growth expectations.
With inflation remaining a concern, risks associated with an economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions dampen the prospects of stocks belonging to this sector. Sluggish economic growth and inflationary woes are likely to make markets more volatile in the coming days. Due to supply-chain troubles, costs will likely continue to be steep in the future.
Fuel remains a key swing factor in near-term results. Notably, oil prices declined almost 31% during the April-June 2026 period, with oil prices down 20% during June 2026 alone. As fuel expenses represent a key input cost for any transportation player, a fall in oil prices bodes well for the bottom-line growth of airline stocks.
Given this backdrop, investors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector are keenly waiting for the results of Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV - Free Report) ), CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) , Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) andAmerican Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) – all of which are slated to be released this week.
Our quantitative model predicts an earnings beat for a company if it has a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This combination increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Let’s delve deeper.
Southwest Airlines
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUV’s second-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $8.58 billion, indicating 18.38% growth year over year. Management anticipates second-quarter 2026 unit revenues to increase in the range of 16.5% to 18.5% on a year-over-year basis, with capacity up flat to up 1% year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUV’s second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 3.70% in the past 60 days to 52 cents per share. However, the consensus mark implies an upside of 20.93% from the year-ago actual. The consensus estimate lies within the company-provided guided range of 35-65 cents.
LUV is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 22. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Southwest Airlines this time around, as it has an Earnings ESP of -1.21% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Southwest Airlines Co. Price and EPS Surprise
Southwest Airlines Co. price-eps-surprise | Southwest Airlines Co. Quote
CSX
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 6.38% over the past 60 days to 50 cents per share. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a 13.64% upside from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.82 billion, indicating a 6.90% increase from second-quarter 2025 actuals.
CSX's second-quarter performance is expected to have benefited significantly from the upgraded Southeast Mexico Express service, driven by faster transit times, expanded market reach and enhanced network efficiency.
The expanding rail-served facility network, broader market access through new intermodal and interchange agreements, and improved network performance are expected to have further boosted the company's operational efficiency and second-quarter performance.
CSX is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, after market close. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CSX this time around, as it has an Earnings ESP of +0.95% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Earnings ESP was +1.66% and a Zacks Rank #2 when we issued our second-quarter 2026 earnings preview.
CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
CSX Corporation price-eps-surprise | CSX Corporation Quote
Union Pacific Corporation
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 1.91% over the past 60 days to $3.20 per share. The consensus mark for earnings implies a 5.61% rise from the year-ago actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s second-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $6.65 billion, indicating 8.09% growth year over year.
We expect the company’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in demand for services. On the contrary, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing supply-chain disruptions are also likely to have pressured the company's bottom line. The decline in shipment volumes is likely to have offset the benefits of pricing initiatives, hampering the company’s prospects in the June-end quarter of 2026.
UNP is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, before market open. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Union Pacific this time, as it has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Union Pacific Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Union Pacific Corporation price-eps-surprise | Union Pacific Corporation Quote
American Airlines
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2026 revenues is currently pegged at $16.7 billion, implying a 16% upward movement from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2026 earnings is currently pegged at 3 cents per share, indicating no change in the past 60 days. The consensus mark implies a 96.84% downward movement from the year-ago actual.
While strong bookings are likely to have aided AAL’s top-line performance in the June quarter, high labor costs are likely to have hurt the bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-fuel unit cost, or cost per available seat mile (CASM: adjusted), is pegged at 13.99 cents compared with 13.59 cents reported in the second quarter of 2025.
Despite having come down from the highs witnessed when the war between the nations was in full flow, oil prices are fluctuating, given the fragility of the interim peace deal. In this scenario, focus will also be on AAL’s guidance for the September quarter and full-year 2026.
AAL is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, before market open. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around, as AAL has an Earnings ESP of -44.74% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Earnings ESP was +67.44% when we issued our second-quarter 2026 earnings preview, and the Zacks Rank was the same.
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American Airlines Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Group Inc. Quote