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Corn, wheat and soybean ETFs beat the S&P 500 as weather and geopolitics lifted crop prices.
China's $17B annual U.S. farm purchase pledge boosted soybean and agribusiness ETFs like MOO.
Easing Iran tensions and better weather may limit further upside in agricultural ETFs.
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA - Free Report) (up 5%) has outperformed the S&P 500 (down 0.02%) over the past month (as of July 28, 2026). Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN - Free Report) has returned over 9.7% over the past month while Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT - Free Report) has surged about 13%. Meanwhile, Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB - Free Report) has advanced about 6.2%.
Let’s find out why.
Inside the Rally in Corn Prices: Will the Rally Last?
Corn prices gained due to deteriorating crop conditions, hot and dry weather stress, and export demand. Investors should note that corn ethanol is a renewable liquid biofuel produced by fermenting and distilling corn starch, primarily blended into gasoline for transportation. With oil prices rising due to the Iran war, demand for ethanol was higher, and so was the demand for corn.
However, the CORN ETF has slumped 2.8% over the past week as improving weather across the U.S. Corn Belt has pressured corn prices, according to Trading Economics. Going forward, the outlook for corn prices will also depend on developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Any pause in hostilities could weaken ethanol demand and weigh on corn prices. Conversely, a further escalation in the conflict would likely support higher corn prices.
What Happened to Soybean?
Soybean prices rallied due to strong international export demand, surging crude oil and biofuel momentum, and Black Sea trade disruptions. Note that China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028.
The newly announced $17 billion annual commitment marks a major win for the U.S. farm belt, building on a baseline agreement reached during trade talks last October, when China agreed to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of American soybeans annually over three years (read: Agricultural ETFs to Gain as China Pledges to Buy $17B of US Crops).
The cumulative effect of the October 2025 soybean pledge and this new $17 billion annual commitment is likely to provide a powerful, multi-year revenue stream that should stabilize farm incomes, encourage planting, and directly benefit companies across the agricultural value chain. No wonder VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO - Free Report) has added about 6% over the past month (as of July 28, 2026).
Inside the Wheat Rally
Wheat and corn exports out of the Black Sea were totally disturbed. Attacks on Black Sea ports, civilian vessels and agricultural infrastructure are alarming and have led to a sharp increase in global wheat prices, per a senior UN official, as quoted Gorgia Today.
With Russia and Ukraine targeting vessels and port facilities, the security of one of the world's most critical grain-export corridors is at stake. Upcoming movement in wheat prices depends on the development in Black Sea unrest.
However, with the huge spike seen over the past month, some level of unrest is probably baked in the wheat ETF. Hence, we may not see a steep surge from here in those agricultural ETFs.
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Agricultural ETFs Top S&P 500 in July: Here's Why
Key Takeaways
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA - Free Report) (up 5%) has outperformed the S&P 500 (down 0.02%) over the past month (as of July 28, 2026). Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN - Free Report) has returned over 9.7% over the past month while Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT - Free Report) has surged about 13%. Meanwhile, Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB - Free Report) has advanced about 6.2%.
Let’s find out why.
Inside the Rally in Corn Prices: Will the Rally Last?
Corn prices gained due to deteriorating crop conditions, hot and dry weather stress, and export demand. Investors should note that corn ethanol is a renewable liquid biofuel produced by fermenting and distilling corn starch, primarily blended into gasoline for transportation. With oil prices rising due to the Iran war, demand for ethanol was higher, and so was the demand for corn.
However, the CORN ETF has slumped 2.8% over the past week as improving weather across the U.S. Corn Belt has pressured corn prices, according to Trading Economics. Going forward, the outlook for corn prices will also depend on developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Any pause in hostilities could weaken ethanol demand and weigh on corn prices. Conversely, a further escalation in the conflict would likely support higher corn prices.
What Happened to Soybean?
Soybean prices rallied due to strong international export demand, surging crude oil and biofuel momentum, and Black Sea trade disruptions. Note that China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028.
The newly announced $17 billion annual commitment marks a major win for the U.S. farm belt, building on a baseline agreement reached during trade talks last October, when China agreed to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of American soybeans annually over three years (read: Agricultural ETFs to Gain as China Pledges to Buy $17B of US Crops).
The cumulative effect of the October 2025 soybean pledge and this new $17 billion annual commitment is likely to provide a powerful, multi-year revenue stream that should stabilize farm incomes, encourage planting, and directly benefit companies across the agricultural value chain. No wonder VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO - Free Report) has added about 6% over the past month (as of July 28, 2026).
Inside the Wheat Rally
Wheat and corn exports out of the Black Sea were totally disturbed. Attacks on Black Sea ports, civilian vessels and agricultural infrastructure are alarming and have led to a sharp increase in global wheat prices, per a senior UN official, as quoted Gorgia Today.
With Russia and Ukraine targeting vessels and port facilities, the security of one of the world's most critical grain-export corridors is at stake. Upcoming movement in wheat prices depends on the development in Black Sea unrest.
However, with the huge spike seen over the past month, some level of unrest is probably baked in the wheat ETF. Hence, we may not see a steep surge from here in those agricultural ETFs.