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MCD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 0.7%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MCD
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $3.32, indicating a rise of 4.1% from $3.19 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $7.14 billion. The estimate suggests a rise of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Factors Likely to Shape MCD’s Quarterly Results
McDonald's second-quarter 2026 revenues are likely to have benefited from the company's continued emphasis on value, which remained central to its growth strategy. The revamped McValue platform, featuring an everyday menu with items priced below $3 alongside affordable meal deals across multiple dayparts, is expected to have strengthened customer traffic, particularly among budget-conscious consumers. Management indicated that the enhanced value proposition was performing in line with expectations and was helping preserve market share despite a challenging consumer environment.
The company's marketing initiatives are also likely to have supported the top line. While April faced difficult comparisons against last year's successful Minecraft promotion, McDonald's entered the remainder of the quarter with a strong promotional calendar. Partnerships such as the Netflix-themed KPop Demon Hunters campaign and preparations for the FIFA-related activation are expected to have kept customer engagement high. These culturally relevant campaigns, combined with continued digital activation through the McDonald's app, likely helped sustain traffic across key markets.
Menu innovation may have been another important growth driver during the quarter. The nationwide rollout of McCafe beverages, including Refreshers and crafted sodas in the United States, alongside successful beverage platform launches in Germany and Canada, likely generated incremental demand. In addition, limited-time offerings across the beef and chicken categories, including the Big Arch burger and Hot Honey campaign, are expected to have maintained momentum in core menu categories. International markets such as the U.K., Germany and Australia are also likely to have contributed through disciplined execution of value, marketing and menu innovation, supporting comparable sales and market share gains.
Our model predicts total U.S. and International Operated Markets sales to increase 1.5% and 8.1% to $2.73 billion and $3.68 billion, year over year, respectively.
McDonald's bottom line in the second quarter is likely to have been supported by solid sales leverage, the resilience of its predominantly franchised business model and disciplined cost management. Management highlighted that restaurant margins remained strong, while supply-chain partnerships and hedging programs are expected to have cushioned against inflation in food, paper and energy costs. In addition, lower-than-anticipated financial support for the Extra Value Meals program, continued full-margin promotional offerings and favorable foreign currency translation are expected to have provided additional support to earnings during the quarter.
What Our Model Unveils About MCD
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for McDonald’s this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MCD: McDonald’s has an Earnings ESP of -0.52%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
McDonald’s Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to increase 6.3% year over year. CAVA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 16.6%.
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker earnings are expected to register a 23.3% year-over-year decline. EAT’s earnings surpassed estimates in all of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6.8%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.54% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 35% year-over-year increase. Sweetgreen’s earnings missed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average miss being 42.4%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
McDonald's Gears Up for Q2 Earnings: Key Factors to Watch
Key Takeaways
McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 4.
MCD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 0.7%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MCD
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $3.32, indicating a rise of 4.1% from $3.19 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $7.14 billion. The estimate suggests a rise of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Factors Likely to Shape MCD’s Quarterly Results
McDonald's second-quarter 2026 revenues are likely to have benefited from the company's continued emphasis on value, which remained central to its growth strategy. The revamped McValue platform, featuring an everyday menu with items priced below $3 alongside affordable meal deals across multiple dayparts, is expected to have strengthened customer traffic, particularly among budget-conscious consumers. Management indicated that the enhanced value proposition was performing in line with expectations and was helping preserve market share despite a challenging consumer environment.
The company's marketing initiatives are also likely to have supported the top line. While April faced difficult comparisons against last year's successful Minecraft promotion, McDonald's entered the remainder of the quarter with a strong promotional calendar. Partnerships such as the Netflix-themed KPop Demon Hunters campaign and preparations for the FIFA-related activation are expected to have kept customer engagement high. These culturally relevant campaigns, combined with continued digital activation through the McDonald's app, likely helped sustain traffic across key markets.
Menu innovation may have been another important growth driver during the quarter. The nationwide rollout of McCafe beverages, including Refreshers and crafted sodas in the United States, alongside successful beverage platform launches in Germany and Canada, likely generated incremental demand. In addition, limited-time offerings across the beef and chicken categories, including the Big Arch burger and Hot Honey campaign, are expected to have maintained momentum in core menu categories. International markets such as the U.K., Germany and Australia are also likely to have contributed through disciplined execution of value, marketing and menu innovation, supporting comparable sales and market share gains.
Our model predicts total U.S. and International Operated Markets sales to increase 1.5% and 8.1% to $2.73 billion and $3.68 billion, year over year, respectively.
McDonald's bottom line in the second quarter is likely to have been supported by solid sales leverage, the resilience of its predominantly franchised business model and disciplined cost management. Management highlighted that restaurant margins remained strong, while supply-chain partnerships and hedging programs are expected to have cushioned against inflation in food, paper and energy costs. In addition, lower-than-anticipated financial support for the Extra Value Meals program, continued full-margin promotional offerings and favorable foreign currency translation are expected to have provided additional support to earnings during the quarter.
What Our Model Unveils About MCD
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for McDonald’s this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MCD: McDonald’s has an Earnings ESP of -0.52%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
McDonald’s Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
McDonald's Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
McDonald's Corporation price-eps-surprise | McDonald's Corporation Quote
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +20.30% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to increase 6.3% year over year. CAVA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 16.6%.
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker earnings are expected to register a 23.3% year-over-year decline. EAT’s earnings surpassed estimates in all of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6.8%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.54% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 35% year-over-year increase. Sweetgreen’s earnings missed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average miss being 42.4%.