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Why Is Leucadia National (LUK) Down 8.7% Since Its Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Leucadia National Corporation . Shares have lost about 8.7% in that time frame.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is LUK due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Leucadia Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates in Q4

Leucadia reported relatively healthy fourth-quarter 2017 results with record results from two of its largest businesses, namely Jefferies and National Beef. Net loss for the reported quarter was $271.6 million or loss of 74 cents per share against net income of $137.2 million or 37 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year decrease in earnings was primarily due to non-cash charges related to the Tax Act.

Excluding non-recurring items, adjusted earnings for the reported quarter were 48 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny.

For full year 2017, net income was $167.4 million or 45 cents per share compared with $125.9 million or 34 cents per share in 2016.

Total revenues for the reported quarter increased to $2,939.5 million from $2,745.8 million in the prior-year period on the back of solid organic growth. Revenues exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,909 million. For full year 2017, revenues improved to $11,436.4 million from $10,062.6 million in 2016.

Segmental Performance

In the reported quarter, Leucadia recorded an improved performance in the debt capital market, along with a solid contribution from equity capital markets, advisory activities and a favorable sales and trading environment. With significant margin contribution from National Beef and other businesses, Leucadia remains well positioned to grow.

During the quarter, Jefferies’ revenues increased to $825.1 million from $742.8 million in the year-earlier quarter, primarily driven by sustained improvement in investment banking business. National Beef revenues were up to $1,882.7 million from $1,847.1 million owing to positive cattle supply environment, strong domestic and export demand due to focus on the highest quality cattle and flawless execution. The overall industry is likely to benefit from favorable supply and demand dynamics, with demand improving from increasing income levels and supply benefiting from the continued growth in cattle available for processing. Revenues from Other Financial Services businesses including FXCM, HomeFed, Leucadia Asset Management, Berkadia and Foursight Capital increased to $38.5 million from $25.3 million. Other Merchant Banking businesses recorded revenues of $162.1 million compared with $120.3 million. Corporate & Other segment revenues improved to $31.1 million from $10.2 million in the year-ago period.

Other Financial Details

In 2017, Leucadia repurchased approximately 3.7 million shares. Leucadia currently has 12.5 million shares remaining for repurchase.

Cash and cash equivalents at quarter end were $5,275.5 million, while long-term debt was $7,885.8 million. Cash flow from operating activities in 2017 was $1,072.8 million compared with $608.8 million in 2016.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There has been one revision lower for the current quarter.

VGM Scores

At this time, LUK has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the momentum front with an F. The stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The company's stock is suitable solely for value based on our styles scores.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, LUK has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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