It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Waste Connections (WCN Quick QuoteWCN - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Waste Connections due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Waste Connections, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Waste Connections Beats on Q2 Earnings

Waste Connections reported impressive second-quarter 2026 results, wherein earnings and revenues outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimates.

WCN reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.50 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35 by 11.1%. Earnings increased 16.3% from $1.29 in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues of $2.56 billion surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.53 billion by 1.1% and rose 6.4% year over year. Strong pricing and operational execution supported the results, although solid waste unit volumes declined 1.9%.

WCN's Solid Waste Trends

Solid waste internal growth was 3.6% in the quarter. Core price increased 5.6%, while yield, which reflects the average price per unit of service after customer and business-mix changes, improved 4.6%. Fuel and material surcharges contributed 1.1%.

Unit volumes fell 1.9%, reflecting sluggish construction activity and customer churn related partly to fuel surcharges. Roll-off pulls declined 2%, while rates per pull rose 5%. Landfill tons were nearly flat, as a 1% increase in construction and demolition volumes offset weaker special waste activity.

Waste Connections' Segmental Revenues

Solid Waste Collection revenues increased 5.8% year over year to $1.78 billion. Solid Waste Disposal and Transfer revenues advanced 5.1% to $464.3 million. These businesses benefited from pricing, while softer volumes limited organic growth.

Solid Waste Recycling revenues declined 8.1% to $61.4 million due to lower commodity values. E&P Waste Treatment, Recovery and Disposal revenues surged 18.3% to $201 million. Intermodal and Other revenues rose 18.3% to $51.3 million.

WCN's Margin & Cost Picture

Adjusted EBITDA increased 6.8% year over year to $840.1 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 10 basis points to 32.8%. Underlying margin expansion was 70 basis points, driven partly by improved employee retention, safety performance and lower risk-management costs.

Fuel costs reduced the margin by approximately 40 basis points, while lower commodity values created a 20-basis-point drag. Management expects full-year core pricing of at least 5.5% and anticipates recovering elevated fuel expenses over time through surcharges.

Operating expenses increased 6.2% to $1.48 billion. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose 7.2% to $260.5 million. Reported operating income declined 4.8% to $437.6 million, reflecting $58.5 million in impairments and other operating items.

Waste Connections' Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $733.3 million in the quarter compared with $638.2 million a year earlier. The adjusted free cash flow increased 24.7% to $457.5 million, representing 17.9% of revenues.

For the first six months of 2026, capital expenditure was $598.9 million. WCN also spent $614.5 million in share repurchases and $177.1 million in dividends. The company ended June with $98.2 million in cash and equivalents, and $9.28 billion in long-term debt.

Waste Connections' Growth Investments

The company completed acquisitions representing approximately $100 million in annualized revenues during the first half. Another $30 million of exclusive-market franchise transactions was expected to close shortly, while management continued to anticipate an above-average acquisition year.

WCN’s artificial intelligence pricing tool has generated roughly $20 million in annualized EBITDA benefits. Management is also testing AI-based routing technology and developing customer-service tools. Across seven programs, Waste Connections expects its $100-million AI investment to ultimately produce $100 million in EBITDA improvement as implementation progresses through 2028 and 2029.

WCN’s 2026 Outlook

Waste Connections raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $10.02-$10.05 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is projected between $3.33 billion and $3.34 billion, implying a margin of 33.2% to 33.3%.

The company maintained its adjusted free cash flow forecast of $1.4 billion to $1.45 billion, and capital expenditure projection of $1.25 billion. The outlook excludes acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Waste Connections has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Waste Connections has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.