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Can ExxonMobil's Permian Growth Keep Driving Upstream Momentum?
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Key Takeaways
XOM's Permian production topped 1.8 MMBoe/d in Q2 2026, driving higher upstream earnings and volume growth.
ExxonMobil targets 2.5 MMBoe/d of Permian output by 2030, implying a 9% production CAGR.
Advantaged assets are expected to reach 65% of upstream production by 2030, supporting higher unit earnings.
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation’s (XOM - Free Report) Permian Basin operations are becoming a major growth engine for its upstream business, with second-quarter 2026 production reaching a record of more than 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day (MMBoe/d). Upstream earnings increased sequentially to $7.93 billion from $5.74 billion, while advantaged volume growth added $1.14 billion to earnings year over year, mainly from the Permian and Guyana assets. The Permian’s abundant resources, multiple productive formations, established infrastructure and favorable drilling economics support efficient, lower-cost production for XOM.
Management expects the Permian contribution to keep expanding, targeting a 9% production CAGR through 2030. ExxonMobil plans to raise Permian output to roughly 2.5 MMBoe/d by 2030, alongside total upstream production of about 5.5 MMBoe/d. Advantaged assets are expected to represent around 65% of upstream production by 2030 compared with 59% year to date, supporting XOM’s target of more than $15 per barrel in upstream unit earnings.
Sustaining this momentum will depend partly on further improvements in drilling, reservoir performance and resource recovery. XOM is leveraging unconventional and artificial intelligence-enhanced technologies to improve drilling performance and recovery, although commodity prices remain an important earnings variable. Overall, the Permian’s rising production, earnings contribution and planned expansion suggest it can remain a key driver of ExxonMobil’s upstream momentum through 2030.
Two Other Permian Producers With Growth Ahead
Beyond ExxonMobil, other Permian-focused producers are also positioning for higher output, with Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG - Free Report) and Matador Resources Company (MTDR - Free Report) standing out for their raised production outlooks and continued basin-focused development.
Diamondback remains a pure-play Permian producer with a large Midland and Delaware Basin footprint. FANG raised 2026 production guidance to at least 1 MMBoe/d and oil guidance to at least 522,000 barrels per day while keeping its capital budget near $3.9 billion. Continued efficiency gains and well completions could help Diamondback sustain Permian-driven production growth.
Matador is heavily focused on the Delaware Basin, part of the prolific Permian Basin, which accounts for nearly all of its oil and gas output. MTDR raised its 2026 total production guidance to 218,500-223,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and oil production guidance to 127,500-129,000 barrels per day. With Delaware development remaining its main capital priority, Matador is positioned for further Permian-led growth.
XOM’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
ExxonMobil shares have risen 43.3% over the past year compared with the industry’s 40.7% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, XOM trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 8.97X. This is above the broader industry average of 5.73X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM's full-year 2026 earnings has remained constant over the past seven days. Estimates for third-quarter and fourth-quarter 2026 earnings have seen upward revisions.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Can ExxonMobil's Permian Growth Keep Driving Upstream Momentum?
Key Takeaways
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation’s (XOM - Free Report) Permian Basin operations are becoming a major growth engine for its upstream business, with second-quarter 2026 production reaching a record of more than 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day (MMBoe/d). Upstream earnings increased sequentially to $7.93 billion from $5.74 billion, while advantaged volume growth added $1.14 billion to earnings year over year, mainly from the Permian and Guyana assets. The Permian’s abundant resources, multiple productive formations, established infrastructure and favorable drilling economics support efficient, lower-cost production for XOM.
Management expects the Permian contribution to keep expanding, targeting a 9% production CAGR through 2030. ExxonMobil plans to raise Permian output to roughly 2.5 MMBoe/d by 2030, alongside total upstream production of about 5.5 MMBoe/d. Advantaged assets are expected to represent around 65% of upstream production by 2030 compared with 59% year to date, supporting XOM’s target of more than $15 per barrel in upstream unit earnings.
Sustaining this momentum will depend partly on further improvements in drilling, reservoir performance and resource recovery. XOM is leveraging unconventional and artificial intelligence-enhanced technologies to improve drilling performance and recovery, although commodity prices remain an important earnings variable. Overall, the Permian’s rising production, earnings contribution and planned expansion suggest it can remain a key driver of ExxonMobil’s upstream momentum through 2030.
Two Other Permian Producers With Growth Ahead
Beyond ExxonMobil, other Permian-focused producers are also positioning for higher output, with Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG - Free Report) and Matador Resources Company (MTDR - Free Report) standing out for their raised production outlooks and continued basin-focused development.
Diamondback remains a pure-play Permian producer with a large Midland and Delaware Basin footprint. FANG raised 2026 production guidance to at least 1 MMBoe/d and oil guidance to at least 522,000 barrels per day while keeping its capital budget near $3.9 billion. Continued efficiency gains and well completions could help Diamondback sustain Permian-driven production growth.
Matador is heavily focused on the Delaware Basin, part of the prolific Permian Basin, which accounts for nearly all of its oil and gas output. MTDR raised its 2026 total production guidance to 218,500-223,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and oil production guidance to 127,500-129,000 barrels per day. With Delaware development remaining its main capital priority, Matador is positioned for further Permian-led growth.
XOM’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
ExxonMobil shares have risen 43.3% over the past year compared with the industry’s 40.7% growth.
From a valuation standpoint, XOM trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 8.97X. This is above the broader industry average of 5.73X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM's full-year 2026 earnings has remained constant over the past seven days. Estimates for third-quarter and fourth-quarter 2026 earnings have seen upward revisions.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
XOM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.