A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Boot Barn (BOOT Quick QuoteBOOT - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Boot Barn due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

BOOT Q1 Earnings Beat on Store Growth & Tariff Refunds, View Up

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, wherein both top and bottom lines surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased year over year. The western and workwear retailer benefited from strong new-store productivity, same-store sales growth, robust e-commerce demand and merchandise margin expansion. Management also raised its fiscal 2027 outlook, reflecting confidence in continued execution despite a softer start to the second quarter.

The quarterly earnings of $2.29 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.69 and increased 31.6% from $1.74 reported in the year-ago quarter. Net sales rose 17.7% year over year to $593.5 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $582 million. Sales growth was driven by new-store expansion and positive comparable sales across both retail stores and e-commerce.

Stores and Digital Support Boot Barn's Sales Growth

Consolidated same-store sales increased 4.7% during the quarter. Retail store same-store sales rose 3.8%, supported by a 3% increase in average unit retail, while transactions remained approximately flat. E-commerce same-store sales jumped 13.4%, driven by double-digit growth at bootbarn.com, underscoring continued strength in the company's omnichannel strategy.

Boot Barn opened 27 new stores during the quarter compared with 14 in the prior-year period, ending the quarter with 566 stores across 49 states. Management continues to expect 70 new store openings in fiscal 2027 and reiterated its long-term opportunity to expand to approximately 1,200 U.S. locations. New locations are projected to generate average annual sales of about $3.2 million, with an investment payback period of less than two years.

Across merchandise categories, men's western boots posted mid-single-digit growth, while women's western boots declined at a mid-single-digit rate against difficult prior-year comparisons. Men's and women's apparel increased at a high-single-digit pace, led by double-digit denim growth. Work boots delivered high-single-digit growth, marking the category's fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth, aided by improved merchandising, stronger marketing support and investments in key third-party brands.

Boot Barn Expands Margins on Tariff Benefits

Gross profit increased 21.6% to $239.9 million, with the gross margin expanding about 130 basis points to 40.4%. Merchandise margin expanded by 220 basis points, including a 250-basis-point benefit from $14.7 million of tariff refunds and 60 basis points of product-margin expansion. These gains were partly offset by a 90-basis-point freight headwind.

SG&A expenses rose 18.1% to $149.4 million and represented 25.2% of sales, up roughly 10 basis points. Operating income climbed 28% to $90.5 million, while the operating margin expanded to 15.3% from 14% in the prior-year quarter.

BOOT Maintains Financial Flexibility

Operating cash flow rose to $83.8 million from $73.9 million a year earlier. Capital expenditures increased to $51.1 million from $31.5 million as the retailer continued investing in its store base and infrastructure. The company expects capital expenditures, net of estimated landlord-tenant allowances, between $125 million and $130 million for fiscal 2027.

BOOT ended the quarter with $139.3 million in cash and no borrowings under its revolving credit facility. The company repurchased more than 158,451 shares for $25 million during the quarter. It also doubled its revolving credit capacity to $500 million and extended the facility’s maturity to 2031.

Boot Barn Raises Fiscal 2027 Outlook

Backed by its better-than-expected first-quarter performance, Boot Barn raised its fiscal 2027 outlook. Management now expects earnings in the range of $8.80-$9.23 per share, up from the previous guidance of $8.21-$8.64, including an estimated 46-cent benefit from tariff refunds. 

Total sales are projected to be between $2.580 billion and $2.625 billion, while consolidated same-store sales are expected to increase 2-4% for the year, with retail store same-store sales growth of 1-3% and e-commerce same-store sales growth of 11-13%. The company had earlier total sales in the band of $2.578-$2.623 billion.

The merchandise margin rate is now expected to reach approximately 52.2% of sales, up 130 basis points year over year. The expansion includes 70 basis points from tariff refunds, 50 basis points from product-margin improvement and 10 basis points from lower freight costs. BOOT forecasts gross profit between $993 million and $1,016 million, or approximately 38.5% to 38.7% of sales.

For the second quarter, Boot Barn expects net sales of $572-$582 million, suggesting year-over-year growth of 13-15%. Consolidated same-store sales are projected to range from flat to up 2%, with retail store same-store sales between down 1% and up 1% and e-commerce same-store sales growth of 10% to 12%. Management expects earnings in the range of $1.55-$1.65 per share, including an estimated 6-cent benefit from tariff refunds.

Boot Barn expects second-quarter merchandise margin between $297 million and $302 million, or approximately 51.8% of sales, up 140 basis points year over year. The outlook includes an estimated $2.4 million benefit from tariff refunds. Gross profit is projected in the range of $208-$213 million, implying about 36.3%-36.6% of sales.

Management noted that consolidated same-store sales were approximately flat during the first four weeks of the second quarter. The moderation reflected fewer Western lifestyle stadium events and concerts, along with temporary traffic disruptions tied to World Cup broadcasts. Despite the softer July performance, management said the consumer remained healthy, reaffirmed confidence in its outlook for the balance of the year and maintained that Boot Barn was well positioned to deliver another year of profitable growth.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, Boot Barn has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Boot Barn has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.