It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Meritage Homes (MTH Quick QuoteMTH - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Meritage due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Meritage Homes Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Meritage Homes Q2 Earnings Beat on Cost Savings, Revenues Miss

Meritage Homes reported second-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted earnings surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate but total closing revenues missing the same. Year-over-year , both metrics declined.

MTH’s Q2 Earnings & Revenue Discussion

Adjusted earnings were $1.42 per share, down 32.1% year over year but beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.30. The bottom line surpassed the consensus mark by 9.23%, aided by lower direct construction costs and improved operating leverage from the first quarter.

Total revenues (including Total Closing revenues and Financial Services revenues) were $1.408 billion, down 13.3% year over year.

Segment Details of Meritage Homes

Homebuilding: Total home closing revenues were $1.4 billion, down 13.8% year over year and missed the consensus mark of $1.43 billion by 1.8%. Under the Homebuilding umbrella, home closing revenues declined 14.1% year over year to $1.388 billion, reflecting continued affordability pressures, volatile mortgage rates and cautious buyer sentiment. However, Land closing revenues rose to $12.72 million from $8.28 million a year ago.

Home closings totaled 3,725 units in the second quarter of 2026, down 11% from the year-ago period as softer selling conditions weighed on delivery volume. Home closing revenues declined 14% year over year to $1.39 billion, reflecting lower closings and a 4% decrease in average sales price. Average sales price on closings fell to $373,000 from $387,000 a year ago, primarily due to geographic mix. Product mix also had an impact, while Meritage Homes used incremental incentives in certain markets to move aged spec inventory. 

Total home orders declined 9% year over year to 3,575 units. Home order value fell 11% to $1.38 billion, while average absorption pace decreased 19% to 3.5 sales per community per month from 4.3 a year ago. The lower absorption rate was partly offset by a 14% increase in average community count. Management noted that demand remained relatively stable sequentially, with no meaningful deterioration from the first quarter.

Meritage Homes ended the quarter with 340 active communities, up 9% year over year but down 1% sequentially as some communities closed earlier than expected and certain planned openings shifted into the third quarter. Quarter-end backlog totaled 1,715 homes, down 2% from the prior-year period, while backlog value declined 5% to $661.9 million.

Financial Services: Segment revenues fell 17.4% to $7.78 million, while segment profit slipped to $5.33 million from $5.61 million as results remained closely tied to home closing activity.

Meritage Homes’ Margins Benefit From Lower Direct Costs

Home closing gross margin contracted 280 basis points year over year to 18.3%, reflecting lost leverage on lower revenues and higher lot costs. Adjusted home closing gross margin was 18.6% versus 21.4% a year ago, but improved 80 basis points sequentially as direct costs per square foot fell nearly 6% year over year and cycle times stayed below 110 days.

SG&A expenses declined 12% to $144 million, though SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenues increased 20 basis points to 10.4%. Net earnings fell 38% to $90.6 million, while the effective tax rate rose to 24.8% from 23.9% because of higher state income taxes.

MTH's Liquidity Supports Capital Returns

Meritage Homes ended the second quarter with $807 million in cash and cash equivalents, up from $775 million at year-end 2025. The company’s debt-to-capital ratio stood at 26.8%, while net debt-to-capital was 17.1%. Meritage Homes also had no outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility, underscoring its solid liquidity position. The company increased the revolver size to $980 million and had $896.9 million available under the facility at quarter-end.

MTH returned $131 million to its shareholders through $100 million of share repurchases and $31 million of dividends. Land acquisition and development spending declined to $357 million from $509 million a year ago, while the company controlled 73,233 lots, equal to 5.2 years of supply.

MTH's Outlook Leans on Community Growth

For the third quarter of 2026, Meritage Homes expects 3,300-3,600 home closings, home closing revenues of $1.26-$1.35 billion and home closing gross margin of around 18%. Earnings are projected at $1.10-$1.30 per share, with an effective tax rate of 24.5-25%.

For full-year 2026, management now expects home closing volume and revenues to be around 5% below 2025 levels, although revenues could trend lower if market conditions require higher incentives. Meritage Homes reiterated its 5-10% year-over-year community count growth target and said second-half volume growth is expected to come from community expansion rather than an improving demand environment.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -13.23% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Meritage has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Meritage has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Meritage is part of the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry. Over the past month, NVR (NVR Quick QuoteNVR - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 1.2%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2026 more than a month ago.

NVR reported revenues of $2.28 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -10.5%. EPS of $83.96 for the same period compares with $108.54 a year ago.

For the current quarter, NVR is expected to post earnings of $108.90 per share, indicating a change of -3.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for NVR. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.