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MP vs. NB: Which Critical Minerals Stock is the Better Buy?
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Key Takeaways
MP leads with integrated rare earth operations, rising production and expanding U.S. magnet capacity.
NioCorp is advancing Elk Creek with a broader product mix, but faces major financing and execution risks.
Both stocks face earnings uncertainty, prompting investors to await clearer execution milestones.
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) and NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) are two US-based companies expected to play key roles in establishing domestic critical-mineral supply chains and reducing dependence on foreign sources.
Las Vegas-based MP Materials is an established rare earth producer with integrated mining, processing and magnet manufacturing operations. It currently has a market capitalization of approximately $10 billion. Colorado-based NioCorp, in contrast, is a development-stage company advancing its Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project in Nebraska, with a market capitalization of roughly $600 million.
The key question is which stock to bet on, MP or NB. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.
The Case for MP Materials
MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America. It also owns the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX, where it manufactures magnetic precursor products and began producing neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in December 2025.
MP continues to scale production and downstream manufacturing capabilities. Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production increased 41% year over year to 840 metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 despite a scheduled semiannual maintenance outage at Mountain Pass. Management expects third-quarter 2026 NdPr production to exceed 1,000 metric tons as throughput and plant reliability improve.
MP Materials remains on track to begin producing terbium and dysprosium later this year, while first samarium production is targeted for 2028. The company recently entered into a multiyear agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer.
Meanwhile, MP is progressing with its magnet manufacturing operations. During the second quarter, MP Materials delivered magnets to General Motors Company (GM - Free Report) for in-vehicle qualification testing and expects to begin commercial shipments in the fourth quarter, followed by a steady production ramp.
MP reported an 89% year-over-year increase in second-quarter 2026 revenues to $108.5 million. The company also recorded $17.58 million in income tied to a price protection agreement (PPA) with the Department of War (DoW). Cost of sales, however, increased 43.3% year over year, and selling, general and administrative expenses rose 28.2%. Start-up costs surged to $14.4 million from $0.76 million in the year-ago quarter as MP advanced initial magnet production.
The company reported an operating loss of $32 million, narrower than the loss of $43.9 million in the year-ago quarter. MP reported an adjusted loss of one cent per share in the second quarter of 2026, a significant improvement from the loss of 13 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Looking ahead, the company expects additional cost pressures as production scales. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.
MP Materials has also worked with U.S. and allied drone manufacturers to launch Project Swarm, an industrial coordination initiative designed to aggregate and standardize future magnet demand. It has already signed subscription agreements with several participants. The company’s partnership with Apple on magnet recycling, magnet production and joint development also continues to advance.
Meanwhile, construction of the 10X facility remains on track. The second U.S. rare earth magnet facility is expected to begin commissioning in 2028 and produce approximately 7,000 metric tons of magnets annually. Combined with the 3,000-metric-ton capacity of the Independence facility, MP’s U.S. magnet capacity is expected to reach 10,000 metric tons annually.
The Case for NioCorp
NioCorp’s primary focus is advancing the Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project toward commercial production. The company recently released an updated 2026 Feasibility Study for the Elk Creek project. The project is expected to produce eight products compared with three earlier. This includes ferroniobium, scandium trioxide, titanium tetrachloride and several rare earth oxide products, including NdPr, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, samarium-europium-gadolinium carbonate and heavy rare earth carbonate. The expanded product mix is expected to provide a more diversified revenue base and reduce dependence on any single commodity.
Over the projected 40-year mine life, the Elk Creek Project is projected to generate approximately $37.4 billion in life-of-mine revenues, average annual EBITDA of $608 million and average annual operating cash flow of $519 million. The study estimates an upfront capital requirement of approximately $1.85 billion.
NioCorp, being still in the development stage, has yet to generate revenues from mining operations. The company continues to incur operating expenses primarily related to costs incurred for the advancement of the Elk Creek Project and the activities necessary to support corporate and shareholder duties, resulting in losses.
In February 2026, NB commenced construction of the main underground portal for its Elk Creek Project, marking a shift from planning to pre-construction. NioCorp has raised more than $500 million since January 2025, has received a $10 million Pentagon Title III award and is under consideration by the U.S. Export-Import (EXIM) Bank for debt financing of up to 65% of the project’s capex costs. Notably, the completion of the 2026 Feasibility Study will satisfy a key EXIM Bank due diligence requirement.
On the commercial front, NioCorp has signed non-binding agreements aimed at establishing future markets for its planned output. These include a memorandum of understanding with Lockheed MartinCorporation (LMT - Free Report) and a non-binding term sheet with Traxys to market and sell minerals from the Elk Creek Project.
These developments improve the project's strategic positioning, particularly as the United States seeks to reduce dependence on imported critical minerals. However, investors should note that Elk Creek remains a development-stage project, and its projected economics and production timelines are subject to financing, construction execution, commodity prices and other risks.
How do Estimates Compare for MP & NB?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at eight cents per share, indicating a turnaround performance from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for MP Materials’ 2027 earnings is pegged at 88 cents per share, implying 1,009% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NioCorp’s fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at a loss of 46 cents per share, wider than the loss of 35 cents in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2027 estimate is at a loss of 32 cents per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both estimates for MP Materials’ 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 60 days. Estimates for NioCorp’s fiscal 2026 have moved up in the past 60 days, while the estimates for fiscal 2027 have moved down. This is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP vs. NB: Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past year, MP Materials stock has declined 21.1% compared with NioCorp’s 10.2% fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials is currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 5.11, while NioCorp is trading at a lower 1.38.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials or NioCorp: Which Stock is the Better Buy?
Both MP Materials and NioCorp stand to benefit from growing U.S. efforts to establish secure domestic supply chains for rare earths and other critical minerals.
MP Materials currently has a clear advantage in terms of operational maturity. Its integrated Mountain Pass operations, growing rare earth production, expanding magnet manufacturing capacity and strategic partnerships with customers and the U.S. government provide tangible growth opportunities. However, substantial investments in downstream expansion and production ramp-ups could continue to pressure near-term profitability.
NioCorp offers exposure to a broader portfolio of critical minerals and has made progress in advancing the Elk Creek Project. The updated feasibility study points to potentially attractive long-term economics, while government support and commercial discussions could strengthen the project's strategic importance. Nevertheless, the company faces significant execution and financing risks as it works to transition from development into construction and commercial production.
Given the downward revisions to earnings estimates and the risks associated with their respective expansion plans, investors may prefer to wait for improved earnings visibility and clearer execution milestones before taking positions. Both MP and NB currently carry a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
MP vs. NB: Which Critical Minerals Stock is the Better Buy?
Key Takeaways
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) and NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) are two US-based companies expected to play key roles in establishing domestic critical-mineral supply chains and reducing dependence on foreign sources.
Las Vegas-based MP Materials is an established rare earth producer with integrated mining, processing and magnet manufacturing operations. It currently has a market capitalization of approximately $10 billion. Colorado-based NioCorp, in contrast, is a development-stage company advancing its Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project in Nebraska, with a market capitalization of roughly $600 million.
The key question is which stock to bet on, MP or NB. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.
The Case for MP Materials
MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America. It also owns the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX, where it manufactures magnetic precursor products and began producing neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in December 2025.
MP continues to scale production and downstream manufacturing capabilities. Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production increased 41% year over year to 840 metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 despite a scheduled semiannual maintenance outage at Mountain Pass. Management expects third-quarter 2026 NdPr production to exceed 1,000 metric tons as throughput and plant reliability improve.
MP Materials remains on track to begin producing terbium and dysprosium later this year, while first samarium production is targeted for 2028. The company recently entered into a multiyear agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer.
Meanwhile, MP is progressing with its magnet manufacturing operations. During the second quarter, MP Materials delivered magnets to General Motors Company (GM - Free Report) for in-vehicle qualification testing and expects to begin commercial shipments in the fourth quarter, followed by a steady production ramp.
MP reported an 89% year-over-year increase in second-quarter 2026 revenues to $108.5 million. The company also recorded $17.58 million in income tied to a price protection agreement (PPA) with the Department of War (DoW). Cost of sales, however, increased 43.3% year over year, and selling, general and administrative expenses rose 28.2%. Start-up costs surged to $14.4 million from $0.76 million in the year-ago quarter as MP advanced initial magnet production.
The company reported an operating loss of $32 million, narrower than the loss of $43.9 million in the year-ago quarter. MP reported an adjusted loss of one cent per share in the second quarter of 2026, a significant improvement from the loss of 13 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Looking ahead, the company expects additional cost pressures as production scales. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.
MP Materials has also worked with U.S. and allied drone manufacturers to launch Project Swarm, an industrial coordination initiative designed to aggregate and standardize future magnet demand. It has already signed subscription agreements with several participants. The company’s partnership with Apple on magnet recycling, magnet production and joint development also continues to advance.
Meanwhile, construction of the 10X facility remains on track. The second U.S. rare earth magnet facility is expected to begin commissioning in 2028 and produce approximately 7,000 metric tons of magnets annually. Combined with the 3,000-metric-ton capacity of the Independence facility, MP’s U.S. magnet capacity is expected to reach 10,000 metric tons annually.
The Case for NioCorp
NioCorp’s primary focus is advancing the Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project toward commercial production. The company recently released an updated 2026 Feasibility Study for the Elk Creek project. The project is expected to produce eight products compared with three earlier. This includes ferroniobium, scandium trioxide, titanium tetrachloride and several rare earth oxide products, including NdPr, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, samarium-europium-gadolinium carbonate and heavy rare earth carbonate. The expanded product mix is expected to provide a more diversified revenue base and reduce dependence on any single commodity.
Over the projected 40-year mine life, the Elk Creek Project is projected to generate approximately $37.4 billion in life-of-mine revenues, average annual EBITDA of $608 million and average annual operating cash flow of $519 million. The study estimates an upfront capital requirement of approximately $1.85 billion.
NioCorp, being still in the development stage, has yet to generate revenues from mining operations. The company continues to incur operating expenses primarily related to costs incurred for the advancement of the Elk Creek Project and the activities necessary to support corporate and shareholder duties, resulting in losses.
In February 2026, NB commenced construction of the main underground portal for its Elk Creek Project, marking a shift from planning to pre-construction. NioCorp has raised more than $500 million since January 2025, has received a $10 million Pentagon Title III award and is under consideration by the U.S. Export-Import (EXIM) Bank for debt financing of up to 65% of the project’s capex costs. Notably, the completion of the 2026 Feasibility Study will satisfy a key EXIM Bank due diligence requirement.
On the commercial front, NioCorp has signed non-binding agreements aimed at establishing future markets for its planned output. These include a memorandum of understanding with Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT - Free Report) and a non-binding term sheet with Traxys to market and sell minerals from the Elk Creek Project.
These developments improve the project's strategic positioning, particularly as the United States seeks to reduce dependence on imported critical minerals. However, investors should note that Elk Creek remains a development-stage project, and its projected economics and production timelines are subject to financing, construction execution, commodity prices and other risks.
How do Estimates Compare for MP & NB?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at eight cents per share, indicating a turnaround performance from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for MP Materials’ 2027 earnings is pegged at 88 cents per share, implying 1,009% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NioCorp’s fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at a loss of 46 cents per share, wider than the loss of 35 cents in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2027 estimate is at a loss of 32 cents per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both estimates for MP Materials’ 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 60 days. Estimates for NioCorp’s fiscal 2026 have moved up in the past 60 days, while the estimates for fiscal 2027 have moved down. This is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP vs. NB: Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past year, MP Materials stock has declined 21.1% compared with NioCorp’s 10.2% fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials is currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 5.11, while NioCorp is trading at a lower 1.38.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials or NioCorp: Which Stock is the Better Buy?
Both MP Materials and NioCorp stand to benefit from growing U.S. efforts to establish secure domestic supply chains for rare earths and other critical minerals.
MP Materials currently has a clear advantage in terms of operational maturity. Its integrated Mountain Pass operations, growing rare earth production, expanding magnet manufacturing capacity and strategic partnerships with customers and the U.S. government provide tangible growth opportunities. However, substantial investments in downstream expansion and production ramp-ups could continue to pressure near-term profitability.
NioCorp offers exposure to a broader portfolio of critical minerals and has made progress in advancing the Elk Creek Project. The updated feasibility study points to potentially attractive long-term economics, while government support and commercial discussions could strengthen the project's strategic importance. Nevertheless, the company faces significant execution and financing risks as it works to transition from development into construction and commercial production.
Given the downward revisions to earnings estimates and the risks associated with their respective expansion plans, investors may prefer to wait for improved earnings visibility and clearer execution milestones before taking positions. Both MP and NB currently carry a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.