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Can Southern Copper's Investment Plan Fuel Long-Term Output Growth?
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Key Takeaways
SCCO plans to invest $20.5B over the next decade, with most capital allocated to projects.
Tia Maria, Los Chancas and Michiquillay represent $10.3B in planned investment in Peru.
Southern Copper expects production to increase to 1.6M tons by 2033 or 2034.
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) intends to invest $20.5 billion over the next decade to support its long-term outlook, with the bulk of the capital allocated to projects.
Southern Copper has also reaffirmed its dedication to collaborating with Peru's government to drive economic and social progress. This will be achieved by advancing the company’s Peruvian projects, Tía María, Los Chancas, and Michiquillay, which represent a total investment of $10.3 billion.
SCCO expects to spend $1.8 billion on the Tia Maria project located in the Peruvian region of Arequipa, which is designed to produce 120,000 tons of copper cathodes per year. As of June 30, 2026, the project was 42% complete, with $693 million invested and $1.10 billion committed. The company targets start-up for the second half of 2027.
The company expects to invest $2.6 billion in the Los Chancas, which is expected to produce 130,000 tons of copper and 7,500 tons of molybdenum annually from 2031. Michiquillay requires $2.5 billion in investment and expects to produce 225,000 tons of copper annually from 2032 over an initial mine life exceeding 25 years.
In Mexico, El Pilar is moving toward early site work in September 2026 and construction in the first quarter of 2027, with production targeted for the second half of 2029. The project is designed for 36,000 tons of annual copper cathode output.
These projects give Southern Copper multiple sources of organic production growth beyond current mine grades. These developments help reach tangible milestones for the company’s broader expansion program across both operating countries over time. Southern Copper maintains a strong long-term outlook with production expected to increase to 1.6 million tons by 2033 or 2034.
Project Updates of Southern Copper Peers
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper. Freeport-McMoRan expects the expansion to result in the addition of more than 700 million pounds of copper production annually.
Freeport-McMoRan has a strong liquidity profile and generates substantial cash flows, providing ample flexibility to fund expansion projects, reduce debt and enhance shareholder returns.
BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) has copper projects under execution and a pipeline that could deliver around two Mtpa of attributable copper production by the 2030s. BHP Group is planning an Escondida New Concentrator project with a potential $4.4-$5.9-billion investment to replace the aging Los Colorados plant. BHP Group has approved a pre-commitment funding of $0.5 billion (BHP’s share) for the concentrator, which is expected to have a higher production capacity and add 230-270 kt of copper annually.
SCCO’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates
Southern Copper shares have skyrocketed 123.3% year to date compared with the Zacks Mining - Non-Ferrous industry’s surge of 82.4%. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has risen 34.6% and the S&P 500 has rallied 23%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Southern Copper stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 29.17X, which is a premium to the industry average of 24.84X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Southern Copper’s 2026 sales is $16.86 billion, indicating a 25.6% year-over-year jump. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is pegged at $7.61 per share, suggesting a rally of 45.2%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2027 sales implies an 11.7% year-over-year dip. The same for earnings suggests a fall of 8.2%.
Earnings estimates for 2026 have moved 0.1% south over the past 60 days, while the same for 2027 have moved up 0.3% over the past 60 days.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Can Southern Copper's Investment Plan Fuel Long-Term Output Growth?
Key Takeaways
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) intends to invest $20.5 billion over the next decade to support its long-term outlook, with the bulk of the capital allocated to projects.
Southern Copper has also reaffirmed its dedication to collaborating with Peru's government to drive economic and social progress. This will be achieved by advancing the company’s Peruvian projects, Tía María, Los Chancas, and Michiquillay, which represent a total investment of $10.3 billion.
SCCO expects to spend $1.8 billion on the Tia Maria project located in the Peruvian region of Arequipa, which is designed to produce 120,000 tons of copper cathodes per year. As of June 30, 2026, the project was 42% complete, with $693 million invested and $1.10 billion committed. The company targets start-up for the second half of 2027.
The company expects to invest $2.6 billion in the Los Chancas, which is expected to produce 130,000 tons of copper and 7,500 tons of molybdenum annually from 2031. Michiquillay requires $2.5 billion in investment and expects to produce 225,000 tons of copper annually from 2032 over an initial mine life exceeding 25 years.
In Mexico, El Pilar is moving toward early site work in September 2026 and construction in the first quarter of 2027, with production targeted for the second half of 2029. The project is designed for 36,000 tons of annual copper cathode output.
These projects give Southern Copper multiple sources of organic production growth beyond current mine grades. These developments help reach tangible milestones for the company’s broader expansion program across both operating countries over time. Southern Copper maintains a strong long-term outlook with production expected to increase to 1.6 million tons by 2033 or 2034.
Project Updates of Southern Copper Peers
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper. Freeport-McMoRan expects the expansion to result in the addition of more than 700 million pounds of copper production annually.
Freeport-McMoRan has a strong liquidity profile and generates substantial cash flows, providing ample flexibility to fund expansion projects, reduce debt and enhance shareholder returns.
BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) has copper projects under execution and a pipeline that could deliver around two Mtpa of attributable copper production by the 2030s. BHP Group is planning an Escondida New Concentrator project with a potential $4.4-$5.9-billion investment to replace the aging Los Colorados plant. BHP Group has approved a pre-commitment funding of $0.5 billion (BHP’s share) for the concentrator, which is expected to have a higher production capacity and add 230-270 kt of copper annually.
SCCO’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates
Southern Copper shares have skyrocketed 123.3% year to date compared with the Zacks Mining - Non-Ferrous industry’s surge of 82.4%. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has risen 34.6% and the S&P 500 has rallied 23%.
The Southern Copper stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 29.17X, which is a premium to the industry average of 24.84X.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Southern Copper’s 2026 sales is $16.86 billion, indicating a 25.6% year-over-year jump. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is pegged at $7.61 per share, suggesting a rally of 45.2%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2027 sales implies an 11.7% year-over-year dip. The same for earnings suggests a fall of 8.2%.
Earnings estimates for 2026 have moved 0.1% south over the past 60 days, while the same for 2027 have moved up 0.3% over the past 60 days.
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.