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Centene Stock Roars Back 117% in a Year: Is CNC Still a Buy?
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Key Takeaways
Centene shares surged 117% in a year as pricing, cost controls and underwriting trends improved.
CNC raised 2026 premium and service revenue guidance to $173-$177B while its HBR improved.
CNC trades below industry and key-peer forward P/E levels despite sharply improving 2026 earnings estimates.
Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) shares have jumped 117% over the past year, far ahead of the industry’s 22.3% growth. The S&P 500 has gained 20.6% over the same period, while peers UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) and Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV - Free Report) have returned 28.8% and 25.4%, respectively.
Much of Centene’s rally reflects a recovery from a depressed level. The stock came under heavy pressure after the company withdrew its 2025 earnings guidance in July 2025. Management found that Marketplace members were considerably sicker than expected, which reduced projected risk-adjustment revenues and hurt earnings expectations. Rising medical costs in both Marketplace and Medicaid plans added to the concern and weakened confidence in the company’s outlook.
The picture has improved since then. Profitability stabilized faster than investors expected, corrective pricing in the Marketplace business began to take hold, and Centene reduced exposure to plans that were not priced adequately. Management also raised its outlook several times. As a result, investors have moved from fearing prolonged losses and uncontrolled medical costs to expecting better margins, firmer pricing and more predictable earnings.
One-Year Price Performance: CNC, UNH, ELV, Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Operating Trends Point to a Recovery
Centene’s second-quarter health benefits ratio (HBR) improved 340 basis points year over year to 89.6%. Premium revenues increased 4.4% to $43.6 billion, supported by higher premium yields, growth in the prescription drug plan business and rate increases across Medicaid and Marketplace products.
The balance sheet also strengthened. Long-term debt fell 7.6% from year-end 2025 to $16 billion, while cash and cash equivalents rose 35% to $24.2 billion. Net cash provided by operations reached $8 billion in the first half of 2026, up 142.4% from the prior-year period, although favorable timing contributed to the increase.
Management raised its 2026 premium and service revenue guidance to $173-$177 billion from $171-$175 billion. The company now expects a HBR of 90.5-91.3% for 2026, compared with 91.9% in 2025 and 88.3% in 2024. The projected improvement suggests that recent pricing and cost actions are starting to support underwriting results.
Earnings Expectations Have Turned Sharply Higher
The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for 2026 earnings of $4.89 per share, up 135.1% from the previous year. Analysts expect earnings to rise another 9.2% in 2027 to $5.34 per share.
Revenue growth is expected to remain modest. The consensus estimate points to revenues of $196.29 billion in 2026, up 0.8%, followed by a slight decline to $192.58 billion in 2027. This outlook shows that the recovery is centered more on margins and execution than on rapid sales growth.
Centene has also topped earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, producing an average surprise of 151.3%.
Centene Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The rebound has lifted Centene’s valuation. CNC now trades at 12.56X forward earnings, above its five-year median of 11.31X. Even so, the multiple remains below the industry average of 15.69X. It also trails UnitedHealth’s 18.31X and Elevance Health’s 14.11X. Centene carries a Value Score of A, indicating that the stock still offers a reasonable mix of valuation and earnings potential.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Centene currently trades below the average analyst price target of $71.94, suggesting an upside of 11.8%. The range is wide, with the high target at $85 and the low at $56, reflecting different risk views.
Risks Have Eased, but They Have Not Disappeared
Centene remains dependent on government-sponsored healthcare programs. Its results can therefore shift with changes in federal and state funding, reimbursement rates and regulation across Medicaid, Medicare and Affordable Care Act Marketplace plans.
Expenses deserve attention. Total operating costs rose 5.5% in 2023, 5.8% in 2024 and 26.6% in 2025. They increased another 6.6% year over year in the first half of 2026. Pricing actions and tighter cost controls should help, but elevated medical expenses and continued investment could slow the pace of margin gains.
Capital efficiency remains another weak spot. Centene’s trailing 12-month return on capital is 6.8%, below the industry average of 9.9%, showing room for better capital efficiency.
Why Centene’s Recovery Could Continue
Several trends support the longer-term outlook. An aging population and rising chronic-disease prevalence should support long-term demand across Centene’s health plans.
Centene is also reshaping its membership mix. Total membership declined to 25.9 million at the end of the second quarter as the company reshaped its book, but prescription drug plan membership rose 12.2% year over year, while Individual and Commercial Group membership rose 10.5%, showing growth in selected areas of the portfolio.
The company is strengthening fraud prevention and payment integrity through AI-based analytics that can flag unusual claims earlier and improve oversight. It is also using advanced analytics in medical-cost forecasting, pricing and operating decisions.
Centene is working with states to secure rates that better match member needs, utilization trends and the risk profile of the population after eligibility redeterminations. These steps, together with firmer Marketplace pricing and tighter cost control, give the company a clearer path to steadier margins.
Should Investors Buy CNC Stock Now?
Centene’s sharp rebound increasingly has fundamental support rather than relying on momentum alone. Corrective Marketplace pricing, better Medicaid rate alignment, tighter cost controls and stronger PDP growth are helping margins recover, while repeated guidance increases point to better earnings visibility.
Risks tied to medical costs, regulation and government funding remain, and the stock is no longer as cheap as it was a year ago. Still, earnings estimates are moving higher, underwriting trends are improving, and valuation remains below key peers. With these factors supporting further upside, Centene currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), making the stock worth considering for investors. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Centene Stock Roars Back 117% in a Year: Is CNC Still a Buy?
Key Takeaways
Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) shares have jumped 117% over the past year, far ahead of the industry’s 22.3% growth. The S&P 500 has gained 20.6% over the same period, while peers UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) and Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV - Free Report) have returned 28.8% and 25.4%, respectively.
Much of Centene’s rally reflects a recovery from a depressed level. The stock came under heavy pressure after the company withdrew its 2025 earnings guidance in July 2025. Management found that Marketplace members were considerably sicker than expected, which reduced projected risk-adjustment revenues and hurt earnings expectations. Rising medical costs in both Marketplace and Medicaid plans added to the concern and weakened confidence in the company’s outlook.
The picture has improved since then. Profitability stabilized faster than investors expected, corrective pricing in the Marketplace business began to take hold, and Centene reduced exposure to plans that were not priced adequately. Management also raised its outlook several times. As a result, investors have moved from fearing prolonged losses and uncontrolled medical costs to expecting better margins, firmer pricing and more predictable earnings.
One-Year Price Performance: CNC, UNH, ELV, Industry & S&P 500
Operating Trends Point to a Recovery
Centene’s second-quarter health benefits ratio (HBR) improved 340 basis points year over year to 89.6%. Premium revenues increased 4.4% to $43.6 billion, supported by higher premium yields, growth in the prescription drug plan business and rate increases across Medicaid and Marketplace products.
The balance sheet also strengthened. Long-term debt fell 7.6% from year-end 2025 to $16 billion, while cash and cash equivalents rose 35% to $24.2 billion. Net cash provided by operations reached $8 billion in the first half of 2026, up 142.4% from the prior-year period, although favorable timing contributed to the increase.
Management raised its 2026 premium and service revenue guidance to $173-$177 billion from $171-$175 billion. The company now expects a HBR of 90.5-91.3% for 2026, compared with 91.9% in 2025 and 88.3% in 2024. The projected improvement suggests that recent pricing and cost actions are starting to support underwriting results.
Earnings Expectations Have Turned Sharply Higher
The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for 2026 earnings of $4.89 per share, up 135.1% from the previous year. Analysts expect earnings to rise another 9.2% in 2027 to $5.34 per share.
Revenue growth is expected to remain modest. The consensus estimate points to revenues of $196.29 billion in 2026, up 0.8%, followed by a slight decline to $192.58 billion in 2027. This outlook shows that the recovery is centered more on margins and execution than on rapid sales growth.
Centene has also topped earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, producing an average surprise of 151.3%.
Centene Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Centene Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Centene Corporation Quote
CNC’s Valuation
The rebound has lifted Centene’s valuation. CNC now trades at 12.56X forward earnings, above its five-year median of 11.31X. Even so, the multiple remains below the industry average of 15.69X. It also trails UnitedHealth’s 18.31X and Elevance Health’s 14.11X. Centene carries a Value Score of A, indicating that the stock still offers a reasonable mix of valuation and earnings potential.
Centene currently trades below the average analyst price target of $71.94, suggesting an upside of 11.8%. The range is wide, with the high target at $85 and the low at $56, reflecting different risk views.
Risks Have Eased, but They Have Not Disappeared
Centene remains dependent on government-sponsored healthcare programs. Its results can therefore shift with changes in federal and state funding, reimbursement rates and regulation across Medicaid, Medicare and Affordable Care Act Marketplace plans.
Expenses deserve attention. Total operating costs rose 5.5% in 2023, 5.8% in 2024 and 26.6% in 2025. They increased another 6.6% year over year in the first half of 2026. Pricing actions and tighter cost controls should help, but elevated medical expenses and continued investment could slow the pace of margin gains.
Capital efficiency remains another weak spot. Centene’s trailing 12-month return on capital is 6.8%, below the industry average of 9.9%, showing room for better capital efficiency.
Why Centene’s Recovery Could Continue
Several trends support the longer-term outlook. An aging population and rising chronic-disease prevalence should support long-term demand across Centene’s health plans.
Centene is also reshaping its membership mix. Total membership declined to 25.9 million at the end of the second quarter as the company reshaped its book, but prescription drug plan membership rose 12.2% year over year, while Individual and Commercial Group membership rose 10.5%, showing growth in selected areas of the portfolio.
The company is strengthening fraud prevention and payment integrity through AI-based analytics that can flag unusual claims earlier and improve oversight. It is also using advanced analytics in medical-cost forecasting, pricing and operating decisions.
Centene is working with states to secure rates that better match member needs, utilization trends and the risk profile of the population after eligibility redeterminations. These steps, together with firmer Marketplace pricing and tighter cost control, give the company a clearer path to steadier margins.
Should Investors Buy CNC Stock Now?
Centene’s sharp rebound increasingly has fundamental support rather than relying on momentum alone. Corrective Marketplace pricing, better Medicaid rate alignment, tighter cost controls and stronger PDP growth are helping margins recover, while repeated guidance increases point to better earnings visibility.
Risks tied to medical costs, regulation and government funding remain, and the stock is no longer as cheap as it was a year ago. Still, earnings estimates are moving higher, underwriting trends are improving, and valuation remains below key peers. With these factors supporting further upside, Centene currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), making the stock worth considering for investors. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.