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Can CAVA's 2024 Cohort Support Its Next Phase of Unit Growth?
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Key Takeaways
CAVA's 2024 cohort is its strongest-performing vintage, generating double-digit same-store sales.
CAVA's new restaurants continue to exceed sales and margin expectations, with productivity above 100%.
CAVA targets 75-77 net new restaurants in 2026 as newer vintages strengthen its development outlook.
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) is seeing strong performance from its newer restaurant vintages as it expands its national footprint. The company’s 2024 restaurant cohort is generating double-digit same-store sales and represents the highest-performing vintage in its portfolio. Based on the performance of that cohort, CAVA expects the 2026 classes to follow a similar maturation pattern.
The strength of newer vintages is important as CAVA increases its restaurant base. The company ended the second quarter of 2026 with 476 restaurants after opening 17 net new locations. New restaurant productivity remained above 100%, while recent openings continued to exceed expectations on both sales and margin performance. Systemwide average unit volumes reached $3.1 million.
New-unit strength has also been broad-based. CAVA reported solid performance across geographies and restaurant formats, including established and emerging markets. The company attributed part of this performance to rising brand awareness and investments aimed at supporting the guest experience and restaurant execution.
The maturation profile of newer restaurants provides additional support to CAVA’s expansion strategy. The company indicated that newer restaurants typically start at high sales levels, moderate during their first year after opening and subsequently rebound toward historical performance.
The 2024 cohort’s double-digit same-store sales performance provides evidence of continued growth as these restaurants mature. CAVA is also incorporating recent performance data into its site-selection models and cash-on-cash return analysis for future openings.
The 2024 cohort therefore provides an important benchmark for CAVA’s future development. Double-digit comps from this vintage, combined with above-100% new restaurant productivity and broad-based market strength, support the company’s current expansion trajectory. CAVA expects to open 75-77 net new restaurants in 2026.
Key Competitors Take Different Paths to Unit Growth
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is supporting a sizable development pipeline with established new-unit economics. CMG opened 101 restaurants in the second quarter of 2026, including 80 Chipotlanes, and continues to expect approximately 350 openings for the full year. New restaurant productivity has remained near 80%, while second-year cash-on-cash returns are approximately 60%. Despite the higher development pace, the impact of new openings on comparable restaurant sales has remained near 100 basis points, consistent with historical levels. These trends likely support Chipotle’s long-term potential to operate at least 7,000 restaurants across North America.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) is taking a more measured approach to restaurant expansion. The company opened four restaurants and closed two in the second quarter, ending the period with 287 locations. Sweetgreen is refining its prototype design, construction costs, market selection and new-unit economics while focusing on rebuilding average unit volumes, restaurant-level cash flow and profitability. SG expects to maintain a conservative development pace in 2027, similar to or slower than 2026, with an emphasis on locations that meet its return thresholds before accelerating growth.
CAVA’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of CAVA have lost 7.4% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 8.1%.
CAVA’s Stock’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CAVA stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.21, above the industry’s average of 3.27.
CAVA’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s 2027 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year uptick of 34%. The EPS estimates for 2027 have increased in the past 30 days.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Can CAVA's 2024 Cohort Support Its Next Phase of Unit Growth?
Key Takeaways
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) is seeing strong performance from its newer restaurant vintages as it expands its national footprint. The company’s 2024 restaurant cohort is generating double-digit same-store sales and represents the highest-performing vintage in its portfolio. Based on the performance of that cohort, CAVA expects the 2026 classes to follow a similar maturation pattern.
The strength of newer vintages is important as CAVA increases its restaurant base. The company ended the second quarter of 2026 with 476 restaurants after opening 17 net new locations. New restaurant productivity remained above 100%, while recent openings continued to exceed expectations on both sales and margin performance. Systemwide average unit volumes reached $3.1 million.
New-unit strength has also been broad-based. CAVA reported solid performance across geographies and restaurant formats, including established and emerging markets. The company attributed part of this performance to rising brand awareness and investments aimed at supporting the guest experience and restaurant execution.
The maturation profile of newer restaurants provides additional support to CAVA’s expansion strategy. The company indicated that newer restaurants typically start at high sales levels, moderate during their first year after opening and subsequently rebound toward historical performance.
The 2024 cohort’s double-digit same-store sales performance provides evidence of continued growth as these restaurants mature. CAVA is also incorporating recent performance data into its site-selection models and cash-on-cash return analysis for future openings.
The 2024 cohort therefore provides an important benchmark for CAVA’s future development. Double-digit comps from this vintage, combined with above-100% new restaurant productivity and broad-based market strength, support the company’s current expansion trajectory. CAVA expects to open 75-77 net new restaurants in 2026.
Key Competitors Take Different Paths to Unit Growth
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is supporting a sizable development pipeline with established new-unit economics. CMG opened 101 restaurants in the second quarter of 2026, including 80 Chipotlanes, and continues to expect approximately 350 openings for the full year. New restaurant productivity has remained near 80%, while second-year cash-on-cash returns are approximately 60%. Despite the higher development pace, the impact of new openings on comparable restaurant sales has remained near 100 basis points, consistent with historical levels. These trends likely support Chipotle’s long-term potential to operate at least 7,000 restaurants across North America.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) is taking a more measured approach to restaurant expansion. The company opened four restaurants and closed two in the second quarter, ending the period with 287 locations. Sweetgreen is refining its prototype design, construction costs, market selection and new-unit economics while focusing on rebuilding average unit volumes, restaurant-level cash flow and profitability. SG expects to maintain a conservative development pace in 2027, similar to or slower than 2026, with an emphasis on locations that meet its return thresholds before accelerating growth.
CAVA’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of CAVA have lost 7.4% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 8.1%.
CAVA’s Stock’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CAVA stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.21, above the industry’s average of 3.27.
CAVA’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s 2027 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year uptick of 34%. The EPS estimates for 2027 have increased in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of CAVA Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CAVA stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.