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Lots of information hits the tape this Thursday morning, as we see shifts based on early-morning commentary, along with key monthly and weekly data. Pre-markets are modestly mixed following an up-trading day Wednesday. The Dow is up another +250 points, the S&P 500 is +10, the Nasdaq is -14 points at this hour and the small-cap Russell 2000 is +7.
Fed Governor Chris Waller, offering his insights this morning in a Reuters “NEXT Newsmaker” interview, said that he expects the Fed will keep interest rates steady going forward as long as progress on inflation continues to be made. On the other hand, if tariff risks and other factors keep the inflation picture from improving, then a rate hike would be back on the table.
Bond yields seemed to react to this statement, lowering on the 10-year to +4.75% and the 2-year to +4.33%. Spot oil prices remain high — WTI at $92 per barrel (/bbl) and Brent crude at $96/bbl — as hostilities continue between the U.S. and Iran. We remain off the April and May highs, but significantly higher than the early July lows.
Key will be the next Inflation Rate report from the August Consumer Price Index (CPI), due a week from tomorrow. Last time around, we saw a still-high +3.7% headline inflation rate, with a much more agreeable +2.5% on the core print. It would appear much is resting on the shoulders of this upcoming report in determining the Fed’s next move. Keep in mind, however, President Trump’s selection of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh strongly suggests there is a bias toward not raising rates from the committee head.
Weekly Jobless Claims Remain in Good Range
Initial Jobless Claims for last week reached +206K, slightly above the +205K projected but below the upwardly revised +204K the previous week. We can see the tight band these numbers continue to sustain, but it is now the fifth week at +200K new claims or higher.
Continuing Claims were also very consistent: 1.779 million was a bit higher than the downwardly revised 1.771 million the prior week — again, seemingly refusing to reach the 1.8 million threshold, which itself would continue to indicate a healthy labor market environment. As it happens, we haven’t been above 1.8 million longer-term jobless claims in 10 weeks.
So far this “Jobs Week,” we’ve seen slightly lower-than-expected job openings in the July JOLTS report Tuesday and a mere +38K filled jobs in the private sector from August ADP (ADP - Free Report) (below the +45K analysts were looking for), and basically in-line on weekly jobless claims. Tomorrow’s Employment Situation report will hopefully show a bounceback from a loss of -23K jobs in July to +53K last month.
Trade Deficit Deepens, Productivity In-Line
Also this morning, the U.S. Trade Balance showed a deficit of -$88.6 billion in July, a slight improvement over the -$90 billion anticipated. However, it is the deepest deficit since the all-time low -$133 billion in March of 2025, and a sizable drop from the improved revision to -$71.2 billion revision for June.
Finally, Q2 non-farm Productivity figures are out this morning. The headline came in at +1.4%, in-line with expectations. Meanwhile, Q2 Unit Labor Costs were slightly below estimates: +1.2% versus +1.3%. Nothing will move the stock market trading needle from this data, but it is important to keep these numbers in minds when considering the overall health of the economy.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
As always, we’ll keep an eye on the Strait of Hormuz and the White House to see what, if anything, is being done about ending the Iran war. The last thing anyone in this country wants is $100/bbl oil. Also, Canada’s tariffs on U.S. imports are scheduled for next Tuesday — the day after Labor Day. Will any negotiations transpire ahead of this deadline to keep the trade war from escalating?
Aside from Waller’s comments this morning, this afternoon we look toward comments from Fed Presidents Beth Hammack (Cleveland) and Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) at an online summit called “Connecting Communities.” Will they back up Waller’s comments about keeping interest rates steady so long as inflation rates do?
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Weekly Jobless Claims Increase Marginally
Lots of information hits the tape this Thursday morning, as we see shifts based on early-morning commentary, along with key monthly and weekly data. Pre-markets are modestly mixed following an up-trading day Wednesday. The Dow is up another +250 points, the S&P 500 is +10, the Nasdaq is -14 points at this hour and the small-cap Russell 2000 is +7.
Fed Governor Chris Waller, offering his insights this morning in a Reuters “NEXT Newsmaker” interview, said that he expects the Fed will keep interest rates steady going forward as long as progress on inflation continues to be made. On the other hand, if tariff risks and other factors keep the inflation picture from improving, then a rate hike would be back on the table.
Bond yields seemed to react to this statement, lowering on the 10-year to +4.75% and the 2-year to +4.33%. Spot oil prices remain high — WTI at $92 per barrel (/bbl) and Brent crude at $96/bbl — as hostilities continue between the U.S. and Iran. We remain off the April and May highs, but significantly higher than the early July lows.
Key will be the next Inflation Rate report from the August Consumer Price Index (CPI), due a week from tomorrow. Last time around, we saw a still-high +3.7% headline inflation rate, with a much more agreeable +2.5% on the core print. It would appear much is resting on the shoulders of this upcoming report in determining the Fed’s next move. Keep in mind, however, President Trump’s selection of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh strongly suggests there is a bias toward not raising rates from the committee head.
Weekly Jobless Claims Remain in Good Range
Initial Jobless Claims for last week reached +206K, slightly above the +205K projected but below the upwardly revised +204K the previous week. We can see the tight band these numbers continue to sustain, but it is now the fifth week at +200K new claims or higher.
Continuing Claims were also very consistent: 1.779 million was a bit higher than the downwardly revised 1.771 million the prior week — again, seemingly refusing to reach the 1.8 million threshold, which itself would continue to indicate a healthy labor market environment. As it happens, we haven’t been above 1.8 million longer-term jobless claims in 10 weeks.
So far this “Jobs Week,” we’ve seen slightly lower-than-expected job openings in the July JOLTS report Tuesday and a mere +38K filled jobs in the private sector from August ADP (ADP - Free Report) (below the +45K analysts were looking for), and basically in-line on weekly jobless claims. Tomorrow’s Employment Situation report will hopefully show a bounceback from a loss of -23K jobs in July to +53K last month.
Trade Deficit Deepens, Productivity In-Line
Also this morning, the U.S. Trade Balance showed a deficit of -$88.6 billion in July, a slight improvement over the -$90 billion anticipated. However, it is the deepest deficit since the all-time low -$133 billion in March of 2025, and a sizable drop from the improved revision to -$71.2 billion revision for June.
Finally, Q2 non-farm Productivity figures are out this morning. The headline came in at +1.4%, in-line with expectations. Meanwhile, Q2 Unit Labor Costs were slightly below estimates: +1.2% versus +1.3%. Nothing will move the stock market trading needle from this data, but it is important to keep these numbers in minds when considering the overall health of the economy.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
As always, we’ll keep an eye on the Strait of Hormuz and the White House to see what, if anything, is being done about ending the Iran war. The last thing anyone in this country wants is $100/bbl oil. Also, Canada’s tariffs on U.S. imports are scheduled for next Tuesday — the day after Labor Day. Will any negotiations transpire ahead of this deadline to keep the trade war from escalating?
Aside from Waller’s comments this morning, this afternoon we look toward comments from Fed Presidents Beth Hammack (Cleveland) and Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) at an online summit called “Connecting Communities.” Will they back up Waller’s comments about keeping interest rates steady so long as inflation rates do?