A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mattel (MAT Quick QuoteMAT - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mattel due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Mattel Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Costs, Revenues Beat on Vehicles

Mattel reported second-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate but net sales surpassing the same. Revenues improved, while the bottom line declined sharply from the prior-year quarter.

The company posted adjusted earnings of 1 cent per share, down from 21 cents a year earlier. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents by 66.7%, as higher advertising, selling and administrative expenses and margin pressure weighed on profitability.

Net sales of $1.13 billion increased 10% year over year and surpassed the consensus mark of $1.08 billion by 4.2%. Growth was led by North America, Vehicles and the Action Figures, Building Sets, Games and Other category. Vehicles gross billings rose 11% in constant currency.

MAT’s Sales Rise on Broad Geographic Growth

North America net sales increased 12% year over year. International net sales advanced 9% as reported and 5% in constant currency, supporting broad-based top-line growth during the quarter.

Regional gross billings increased in North America, EMEA and Asia Pacific. North America gross billings rose 12% in constant currency to $613 million, while EMEA increased 7% to $363 million. Latin America was comparable at $165 million, and Asia Pacific advanced 4% to $126 million. Management believes U.S. retailer ordering patterns have now largely stabilized.

Mattel’s Vehicles and Games Drive Portfolio Gains

Worldwide Vehicles gross billings increased 14% as reported and 11% in constant currency to $463 million, primarily driven by Hot Wheels. The company expects Hot Wheels to achieve its ninth consecutive record year, supported by demand from children and adult collectors.

Action Figures, Building Sets, Games and Other gross billings surged 35% as reported and 33% in constant currency to $358 million. Growth was reflected in Games, including the contribution from Mattel's 163 digital titles, and Action Figures tied to theatrical releases. Mattel Brick Shop also performed well during the quarter.

MAT’s Dolls and Preschool Categories Remain Soft

Dolls gross billings declined 5% as reported and 7% in constant currency to $318 million, primarily due to lower Barbie sales. Weakness in Barbie and Polly Pocket was partly offset by growth in K-Pop Demon Hunters and Disney Princess and Frozen products. Management expects Barbie to return to growth in 2027.

Infant, Toddler and Preschool gross billings fell 11% as reported and 13% in constant currency to $128 million, mainly reflecting a decline in Fisher-Price. However, Little People delivered high-double-digit growth, aided by new partnerships.

Mattel’s Margins Contract as Spending Increases

Adjusted gross margin declined 260 basis points year over year to 48.6%. The contraction reflected the gross incremental cost of tariffs, inflation, higher royalties and unfavorable foreign exchange. Contributions from Mattel163, tariff-mitigation efforts and cost savings provided partial offsets.

Advertising expenses increased $45.2 million to $124.3 million, reflecting Mattel163, marketing and engagement activities and strategic investments. Adjusted selling and administrative expenses rose 11% to $383.6 million. Consequently, adjusted operating income declined 60% to $38.8 million, while adjusted EBITDA fell to $95.5 million from $170 million.

MAT’s Cash Position Falls as Buybacks Continue

For the first six months of 2026, cash flows used for operating activities were $202.1 million, compared with $275.3 million a year earlier. The improvement reflected more favorable working-capital usage, partly offset by lower net income excluding noncash items.

Mattel ended the quarter with $523.9 million in cash and equivalents, $829.8 million in inventories and $2.33 billion in long-term debt. The company repurchased $100 million of shares during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $300 million.

Mattel Reaffirms 2026 Earnings & Sales Outlook

Management reaffirmed its 2026 outlook, projecting constant-currency net sales growth of 3% to 6%. Adjusted gross margin is expected to be approximately 50%, while adjusted operating income is forecast between $580 million and $630 million.

Mattel continues to expect adjusted earnings of $1.27-$1.39 per share and an adjusted tax rate of approximately 24%. The company also reaffirmed its $400 million share-repurchase target for the year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Mattel has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Mattel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Mattel is part of the Zacks Toys - Games - Hobbies industry. Over the past month, Hasbro (HAS Quick QuoteHAS - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 2.6%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2026 more than a month ago.

Hasbro reported revenues of $1.14 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +16.2%. EPS of $1.28 for the same period compares with $1.30 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Hasbro is expected to post earnings of $1.88 per share, indicating a change of +11.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.8% over the last 30 days.

Hasbro has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.