It has been about a month since the last earnings report for BellRing Brands (BRBR Quick QuoteBRBR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 15% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is BellRing Brands due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for BellRing Brands Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

BellRing Brands Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Net Sales Increase Y/Y

BellRing Brands reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results wherein earnings declined year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, revenues increased year over year and came ahead of the consensus mark.

The company posted adjusted earnings of 30 cents per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, down 45.5% from 55 cents in the prior-year quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents.

Net sales increased 4.2% to $570.4 million from $547.5 million in the year-ago quarter and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $562 million. Higher Premier Protein shake volume, driven by distribution gains and robust Dymatize sales growth, supported revenues, while significant input cost inflation, including tariffs, higher freight expenses and inventory-related charges, weighed on profitability.

Premier Protein net sales increased 0.7% year over year. Volume rose 1.5%, while price/mix declined 0.8%, reflecting incremental promotional investments. Premier Protein ready-to-drink (RTD) shake sales increased 1.2% from the prior-year quarter. Volume grew 3.1%, whereas price/mix declined 1.9%. Premier Protein RTD consumption increased 6% year over year. Premier Protein RTD consumption rose 50.9% in e-commerce, 26.1% in food and 10.1% in mass channels, while club consumption declined 7.6%.

Dymatize net sales climbed 26.7% year over year. Volume increased 6%, while price/mix improved 20.7%, reflecting pricing actions implemented to offset inflationary costs and distribution gains in international markets. Dymatize consumption increased 2.7% from the year-ago period. By channel, e-commerce sales increased 18%, while mass sales declined 11.9%, specialty and all other sales fell 3.9%, food sales decreased 12.2%, and club sales dropped 53%.

BRBR's Margin & Cost Performance

Adjusted gross profit declined 17.9% to $157.9 million from $192.4 million in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted gross margin contracted 740 basis points to 27.7% from 35.1%. The decline reflected significant input cost inflation, including tariffs, higher freight expenses and a $10 million charge related to excess shake bottle inventory. The inventory charge reduced adjusted gross margin by 180 basis points. Selling, general and administrative expenses declined 35.2% to $93.7 million from $144.5 million, including reorganization charges of $5.4 million. As a percentage of sales, SG&A improved to 16.4% from 26.4%.

Adjusted EBITDA decreased 34.9% to $78.3 million from $120.3 million a year earlier. Management said that the excess shake bottle inventory charge and higher-than-expected freight costs were the primary reasons adjusted EBITDA came in below internal expectations. Operating profit increased 46% to $65.4 million from $44.8 million, as lower reported SG&A expenses more than offset the decline in gross profit.

BRBR's Other Financial Information

Cash and cash equivalents totaled $50.4 million as of June 30, 2026, compared with $71.8 million as of Sept. 30, 2025. Inventories increased to $480.6 million from $330.4 million, while long-term debt rose to $1,135.3 million from $1,084.3 million over the same period. Operating cash flow for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 declined to $65 million from $91.5 million in the comparable prior-year period. During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, BellRing repurchased 4.9 million shares for $133.1 million. As of June 30, 2026, the company had $506.9 million remaining under its existing share repurchase authorization.

BellRing’s Outlook

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, BellRing expects net sales to be flat at the midpoint of its outlook. Premier is anticipated to post low-single-digit sales growth, including an approximate 100-basis-point headwind from powders. The company also projects double-digit growth in RTD shake volumes, with the benefit expected to be largely offset by weaker price/mix stemming from elevated promotional activity across the club, mass and e-commerce channels.

BellRing forecasts an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 10% for the fourth quarter. The margin outlook reflects the impact of seasonal promotional spending, continued commodity and freight cost inflation ahead of planned pricing actions, as well as initiatives to reduce excess shake bottle inventory, which are expected to lower the quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin by roughly 100 basis points.

For fiscal 2026, BellRing increased its net sales outlook to $2.335-$2.375 billion, representing 1-3% year-over-year growth compared with its earlier expectation of flat to 2% growth. 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -41.34% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, BellRing Brands has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, BellRing Brands has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

BellRing Brands is part of the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry. Over the past month, Medifast (MED Quick QuoteMED - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 3.2%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2026 more than a month ago.

Medifast reported revenues of $76.38 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -27.6%. EPS of -$0.28 for the same period compares with $0.04 a year ago.

Medifast is expected to post a loss of $0.40 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -90.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +33.3%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for Medifast. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.