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CF Jumps 24% in the Past 3 Months: What's Driving the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
CF Industries' shares have rallied 24.3% over the past three months, outpacing the industry.
Nitrogen supply is expected to remain constrained through 2026 and 2027 as demand outpaces capacity.
CF Industries repurchased 5.6 million shares for $523 million and raised its quarterly dividend.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (CF - Free Report) shares have rallied 24.3% over the past three months. The company has also outperformed the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 19.1% rise over the same time frame.
CF Industries’ shares have rallied on expectations of strong nitrogen demand, firm selling prices and tightening global supply. The company’s robust cash flow, higher shareholder returns and growth investments have further supported investor sentiment.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at the factors that are driving CF stock.
CF Industries Gains From Higher Prices and Nitrogen Demand
CF Industries should benefit from durable nitrogen demand through 2026 and into 2027. Management expects global nitrogen demand to remain constructive as lower prices entering the second half of 2026 encourage deferred purchases. India, Southeast Asia and other markets are expected to import urea at or above second-half 2025 levels.
The company projects Indian urea imports of 10-11 million metric tons in 2026 and Brazilian imports of 7-8 million metric tons, with Brazil demand weighted to the second half. In North America, July 2026 ammonia and UAN fill programs saw firm uptake while channel inventories are projected below average. Over the long term, management expects global nitrogen capacity additions under construction to lag demand growth over the next four years, tightening the supply-demand balance.
Higher selling prices lifted second-quarter 2026 net sales to $2.22 billion from $1.89 billion a year earlier, with prices higher across all segments. CF operated at 98% of available ammonia capacity in the first half, helping it capture favorable market conditions despite the Yazoo outage. The Iran conflict disrupted Middle East trade, with management estimating losses of 4-4.5 million metric tons of urea and about 1 million tons of ammonia. Prices returned to pre-conflict levels by quarter-end, but management expects supply to remain constrained through 2026 and into 2027 as geopolitical risks and European production economics limit availability.
CF Industries Balances Growth and Capital Returns
CF Industries continues to deploy cash through buybacks and dividends. It repurchased 2.2 million shares for $245 million in the first half of 2026, including 2 million shares for $230 million in the second quarter. Since the current $2 billion program began in October 2025, the company has repurchased 5.6 million shares for about $523 million, leaving roughly $1.48 billion authorized through 2029 as of June 30, 2026. In July 2026, the board also raised the quarterly dividend by 20% to 60 cents per share, reinforcing management’s stated commitment to return capital while funding high-return investments.
CF Industries ended the second quarter with $2.48 billion of cash and cash equivalents, including $341 million held by Blue Point One, while long-term debt was essentially unchanged at $3.22 billion. Net cash from operating activities rose to $1.37 billion in the first half of 2026 from $1.15 billion a year earlier. Trailing 12-month free cash flow was $1.82 billion. Management expects CF-funded capital expenditures of about $950 million in 2026, excluding the Yazoo City rebuild. Blue Point’s partners fund the joint venture according to ownership interests. Permits received in July 2026 allow construction to commence in August. This financial capacity supports growth investment alongside ongoing capital returns.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WS’ current-year earnings stands at $3.4 per share, implying a 52.5% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the negative average surprise being 13.8%. Shares of the company have fallen about 20.4% over the past three months.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRS’ current-year earnings is pegged at $13.28 per share, implying a 23.4% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 8.4%. Shares of CRS have fallen around 25.1% over the past three months.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVNT’s current-year earnings is pegged at $3.2 per share, indicating a 13.5% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.4%. Shares of AVNT have surged around 9.3% over the past three months.
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CF Jumps 24% in the Past 3 Months: What's Driving the Stock?
Key Takeaways
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (CF - Free Report) shares have rallied 24.3% over the past three months. The company has also outperformed the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 19.1% rise over the same time frame.
CF Industries’ shares have rallied on expectations of strong nitrogen demand, firm selling prices and tightening global supply. The company’s robust cash flow, higher shareholder returns and growth investments have further supported investor sentiment.
Let’s take a look at the factors that are driving CF stock.
CF Industries Gains From Higher Prices and Nitrogen Demand
CF Industries should benefit from durable nitrogen demand through 2026 and into 2027. Management expects global nitrogen demand to remain constructive as lower prices entering the second half of 2026 encourage deferred purchases. India, Southeast Asia and other markets are expected to import urea at or above second-half 2025 levels.
The company projects Indian urea imports of 10-11 million metric tons in 2026 and Brazilian imports of 7-8 million metric tons, with Brazil demand weighted to the second half. In North America, July 2026 ammonia and UAN fill programs saw firm uptake while channel inventories are projected below average. Over the long term, management expects global nitrogen capacity additions under construction to lag demand growth over the next four years, tightening the supply-demand balance.
Higher selling prices lifted second-quarter 2026 net sales to $2.22 billion from $1.89 billion a year earlier, with prices higher across all segments. CF operated at 98% of available ammonia capacity in the first half, helping it capture favorable market conditions despite the Yazoo outage. The Iran conflict disrupted Middle East trade, with management estimating losses of 4-4.5 million metric tons of urea and about 1 million tons of ammonia. Prices returned to pre-conflict levels by quarter-end, but management expects supply to remain constrained through 2026 and into 2027 as geopolitical risks and European production economics limit availability.
CF Industries Balances Growth and Capital Returns
CF Industries continues to deploy cash through buybacks and dividends. It repurchased 2.2 million shares for $245 million in the first half of 2026, including 2 million shares for $230 million in the second quarter. Since the current $2 billion program began in October 2025, the company has repurchased 5.6 million shares for about $523 million, leaving roughly $1.48 billion authorized through 2029 as of June 30, 2026. In July 2026, the board also raised the quarterly dividend by 20% to 60 cents per share, reinforcing management’s stated commitment to return capital while funding high-return investments.
CF Industries ended the second quarter with $2.48 billion of cash and cash equivalents, including $341 million held by Blue Point One, while long-term debt was essentially unchanged at $3.22 billion. Net cash from operating activities rose to $1.37 billion in the first half of 2026 from $1.15 billion a year earlier. Trailing 12-month free cash flow was $1.82 billion. Management expects CF-funded capital expenditures of about $950 million in 2026, excluding the Yazoo City rebuild. Blue Point’s partners fund the joint venture according to ownership interests. Permits received in July 2026 allow construction to commence in August. This financial capacity supports growth investment alongside ongoing capital returns.
CF’s Zacks Rank & Key Pick
CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Worthington Steel, Inc. (WS - Free Report) , Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS - Free Report) and Avient Corporation (AVNT - Free Report) . WS sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while CRS and AVNT carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WS’ current-year earnings stands at $3.4 per share, implying a 52.5% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the negative average surprise being 13.8%. Shares of the company have fallen about 20.4% over the past three months.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRS’ current-year earnings is pegged at $13.28 per share, implying a 23.4% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 8.4%. Shares of CRS have fallen around 25.1% over the past three months.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVNT’s current-year earnings is pegged at $3.2 per share, indicating a 13.5% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.4%. Shares of AVNT have surged around 9.3% over the past three months.