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In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.5% while total revenues missed the same by 1.6%. On a year-over-year basis, both metrics declined 31.1% and 5.2%, respectively.
Lennar’s earnings topped the estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other three occasions, with a negative average surprise of 4.1%.
How are Estimates Placed for LEN Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has moved south to $1.29 from $1.31 over the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a decline of 35.5% from earnings of $2.00 per share reported in the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $8.33 billion, indicating a 5.4% decline from the year-ago figure of $8.81 billion.
Revenues in the fiscal third quarter are expected to have declined due to the ongoing affordability issues faced by homebuyers in the United States, as the ongoing spike in mortgage rates is making homeownership difficult. Per Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ranged between 6.48% and 6.66% between June and August 2026. Besides inflated rates, U.S. homebuyers struggle with employment opportunities and growing global political uncertainties, which are underlying reasons for the struggling housing market.
During the fiscal quarter, even though the home sales volume is likely to have normalized to some extent sequentially, the reduced average selling price (ASP) on home sales pressured revenues. Besides, even if Lennar engaged in extensive incentive offerings to ease the financial pressures of potential buyers in the quarter, the softness in demand is expected to have lingered.
For the fiscal third quarter, Lennar expects home deliveries between 20,500 units and 21,500 units, with ASP on homes delivered between $375,000 and $380,000. These values compare with 21,584 homes sold in the year-ago quarter at an ASP of $383,000.
Our Zacks model expects home deliveries for the quarter to be 21,181 units at an ASP of $377,230, indicating a year-over-year decline of 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Besides, our model predicts Homebuilding revenues (contributing 95.9% to second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues) to decline 2.8% year over year to $8.02 billion.
Nonetheless, LEN’s technology-driven transformation efforts to unlock scalable efficiencies, reduce customer acquisition costs and modernize its entire operating model are expected to have eased the pressures to some extent in the fiscal third quarter.
Earnings & Margins
The company’s bottom line is expected to have weakened significantly during the fiscal third quarter compared with a year ago because of its increased incentive offerings and lower home delivery ASP implemented to boost sales volume. Amid an inflated mortgage rate scenario and lower household income opportunities, Lennar chose to sacrifice its margins to boost home delivery numbers, which is likely to be adverse in the near term.
For the fiscal third quarter, Lennar expects the home sales gross margin to be approximately 16%, down from 17.5% reported a year ago. It also expects EPS in the range of $1.20-$1.40 for the quarter to be reported.
Moreover, Lennar’s technology investments are likely to have put pressure on margins, as the near-term efficiency gains from them are immaterial and represent a significant drag on operating leverage. Heightened investments, alongside higher marketing and selling expenses, are expected to have increased the selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses of the company in the quarter to be reported. Lennar expects SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales) to be between 8.8% and 9%, up year over year from 8.2%.
Orders & Backlog
For the fiscal third quarter, LEN expects new home orders between 21,000 units and 22,000 units, down from 23,004 units reported a year ago. Our model predicts the same metric to be 21,867 units, reflecting a 4.9% year-over-year decline.
We expect backlog units to be up 3.2% year over year to 17,504 units, with potential housing revenues inching down 0.5% to $6.62 billion.
What Our Model Unveils for Lennar
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lennar this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.
LEN’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.78%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
LEN’s Zacks Rank: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the respective quarters to be reported.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.49% and a Zacks Rank of 1 presently.
Comfort Systems’ earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 34.6%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 46.2%.
Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.66% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
Quanta’s earnings have topped in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 46.9%.
Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.52% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
Everus’ earnings have topped in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 57%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 15.3%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Here's What Investors Must Know Ahead of Lennar's Q3 Earnings
Key Takeaways
Lennar Corporation (LEN - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Sept. 16, after the closing bell.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.5% while total revenues missed the same by 1.6%. On a year-over-year basis, both metrics declined 31.1% and 5.2%, respectively.
Lennar’s earnings topped the estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other three occasions, with a negative average surprise of 4.1%.
How are Estimates Placed for LEN Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has moved south to $1.29 from $1.31 over the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a decline of 35.5% from earnings of $2.00 per share reported in the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $8.33 billion, indicating a 5.4% decline from the year-ago figure of $8.81 billion.
Lennar Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Lennar Corporation price-eps-surprise | Lennar Corporation Quote
Factors Likely to Shape Lennar’s Q3 Results
Revenues
Revenues in the fiscal third quarter are expected to have declined due to the ongoing affordability issues faced by homebuyers in the United States, as the ongoing spike in mortgage rates is making homeownership difficult. Per Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ranged between 6.48% and 6.66% between June and August 2026. Besides inflated rates, U.S. homebuyers struggle with employment opportunities and growing global political uncertainties, which are underlying reasons for the struggling housing market.
During the fiscal quarter, even though the home sales volume is likely to have normalized to some extent sequentially, the reduced average selling price (ASP) on home sales pressured revenues. Besides, even if Lennar engaged in extensive incentive offerings to ease the financial pressures of potential buyers in the quarter, the softness in demand is expected to have lingered.
For the fiscal third quarter, Lennar expects home deliveries between 20,500 units and 21,500 units, with ASP on homes delivered between $375,000 and $380,000. These values compare with 21,584 homes sold in the year-ago quarter at an ASP of $383,000.
Our Zacks model expects home deliveries for the quarter to be 21,181 units at an ASP of $377,230, indicating a year-over-year decline of 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Besides, our model predicts Homebuilding revenues (contributing 95.9% to second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues) to decline 2.8% year over year to $8.02 billion.
Nonetheless, LEN’s technology-driven transformation efforts to unlock scalable efficiencies, reduce customer acquisition costs and modernize its entire operating model are expected to have eased the pressures to some extent in the fiscal third quarter.
Earnings & Margins
The company’s bottom line is expected to have weakened significantly during the fiscal third quarter compared with a year ago because of its increased incentive offerings and lower home delivery ASP implemented to boost sales volume. Amid an inflated mortgage rate scenario and lower household income opportunities, Lennar chose to sacrifice its margins to boost home delivery numbers, which is likely to be adverse in the near term.
For the fiscal third quarter, Lennar expects the home sales gross margin to be approximately 16%, down from 17.5% reported a year ago. It also expects EPS in the range of $1.20-$1.40 for the quarter to be reported.
Moreover, Lennar’s technology investments are likely to have put pressure on margins, as the near-term efficiency gains from them are immaterial and represent a significant drag on operating leverage. Heightened investments, alongside higher marketing and selling expenses, are expected to have increased the selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses of the company in the quarter to be reported. Lennar expects SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales) to be between 8.8% and 9%, up year over year from 8.2%.
Orders & Backlog
For the fiscal third quarter, LEN expects new home orders between 21,000 units and 22,000 units, down from 23,004 units reported a year ago. Our model predicts the same metric to be 21,867 units, reflecting a 4.9% year-over-year decline.
We expect backlog units to be up 3.2% year over year to 17,504 units, with potential housing revenues inching down 0.5% to $6.62 billion.
What Our Model Unveils for Lennar
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lennar this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.
LEN’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.78%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
LEN’s Zacks Rank: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the respective quarters to be reported.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.49% and a Zacks Rank of 1 presently.
Comfort Systems’ earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 34.6%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 46.2%.
Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.66% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
Quanta’s earnings have topped in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 46.9%.
Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.52% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
Everus’ earnings have topped in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 57%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 15.3%.