Pre-market futures are filling in yesterday’s potholes. This occurred during and after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference yesterday afternoon, which saw him deny guidance to where the Fed means to go with interest rates following the first FOMC move of 2026: up +25 basis points (bps), to a new range of +3.75-4.00%. The Dow, in particular, felt the brunt of yesterday’s sell-off, -1.2%.

This morning, the Dow is roaring back +626 points, the Nasdaq +468 and the S&P 500 +95 points — all between +1.2-1.6% gains. The small-cap Russell 2000 is up +1.4%, +39 points. Bond yields have relaxed gently: +4.96% on the 10-year, +4.68% on the 2-year and +5.31% on the 30-year. Oil prices have also come down: $99 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $102 on Brent crude.

Initial Jobless Claims Match 57-Year Lows

The most consistently promising of all employment data remains the Weekly Jobless Claims. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims reached its lowest level since mid-June at +196K, down from the +207K expected and -10K fewer than the previous week’s unrevised +206K. These sub-200K numbers match those seen back in 1969, when the economy was in a much different place.

Continuing Claims came in at +1.73 million, below the downwardly revised +1.769 million in the prior month and the lowest tally since May of 2023. Considering that analysts won’t even begin to grow concerned about the labor force until longer-term jobless claims reach +2 million, we haven’t even reached +1.8 million since the last week in June.

As we’ve noted in the past regarding jobless claims, however, these weekly numbers do not tell the full story. While we are clearly in a “low hire/low fire” employment environment, those who do find themselves out of work, if they are already of a certain age, might take their pink slip as a ticket to retirement. Or become part of the “gig economy,” driving for Uber (UBER Quick QuoteUBER - Free Report) or renting out their home via Airbnb (ABNB Quick QuoteABNB - Free Report) .

Housing Starts Slip on Big Multi-Family Drop

Housing Starts for August are also out this morning, coming in at +1.275 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units.  This is down slightly from the +1.3 million expected, though Single-Family homes — which provide many more nutrients to the overall economy — were +7.6%. It was Multi-Family where the drop-off happened: -22%. This follows months of Multi-Family home construction; we may be at the end of that growth trend.

Building Permits were also lower than expected: 1.39 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units were down from the unrevised +1.43 million reported for July, and expectations for +1.41%. Permits are seen as a proxy for future Starts, so perhaps we’re not quite out of the woods with Housing data just yet (and won’t be until we’re back down from +7% mortgage rates).

Philly Fed Stays High Third-Straight Month

Here’s something we haven’t seen in more than a decade: manufacturing data from the Philly Fed survey has come in above +37 for the third-straight month, to +37.8 for September. This follows 40+ prints for both August and July. For some context, we spent from mid-2022 to early 2024 with negative Philly Fed numbers nearly every month. Eastern Pennsylvania and Western New Jersey are seeing strong construction levels, due to data center buildouts and the Chips Act.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

A half-hour after the opening bell, Pending Home Sales for August will hit the tape, expected to rebound to +0.5% from the low read in July of -2.3%. A positive print today would be the first one since May. Might we see a positive surprise in these home sales numbers that we saw Housing Starts? This might be a sign that the housing market is improving, despite high mortgage rates.

We’ll also keep an eye on developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where President Trump asserted yesterday that Iran is willing to negotiate to end the seven-month war. This, despite advancements in the Red Sea from Iran-backed Houthis, and an Iran-backed militia in Iraq that successfully bombed a major east-west pipeline in Saudi Arabia last weekend, which have sent gasoline prices to $5 per gallon.

Next week, Trump is planning to meet with Gulf leaders about bringing an end to the war. Based on recent history, however, the U.S. isn’t likely to welcome peace proposals from Iran, which last assumed it would retain control over the Strait of Hormuz. But with strategic oil reserves being tapped in the West, including the U.S. — not to mention the upcoming Midterm elections — the White House may not be holding as strong a hand as the president thinks.