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Steel Dynamics Expects Higher Q3 Earnings on Strong Steel Demand
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Key Takeaways
STLD expects Q3 adjusted EPS of $5.34-$5.38, up from $3.69 in Q2 and $2.74 a year ago.
Steel Dynamics sees record shipments, stronger margins and higher prices supporting third-quarter earnings.
The fabrication backlog is nearly 50% above last year and extends through Q1'27.
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD - Free Report) expects third-quarter 2026 earnings of $5.34-$5.38 per share, well above $3.69 in the second quarter and $2.74 in the year-ago quarter. Stronger steel metal margins, record shipments, higher realized selling prices and lower scrap costs are projected to drive the significant sequential improvement in steel operations profitability. Healthy order activity, solid end-market demand and low customer inventories are also supporting pricing conditions.
Steel fabrication earnings are expected to improve modestly on higher shipments, despite narrower metal spreads. The backlog is nearly 50% above prior-year levels and extends through the first quarter of 2027, supported by demand from commercial construction, data centers, manufacturing and healthcare. The company also expects fabrication volumes to grow in 2027, aided by domestic manufacturing investment, infrastructure spending and onshoring activity.
Metals recycling earnings are expected to decline sequentially due to lower metal spreads and slightly weaker shipments. Aluminum earnings are expected to improve meaningfully on higher shipments. The company continues to advance its Columbus, MS aluminum flat rolled mill, with all three cold mills operational and the first Continuous Annealing and Solution Heat (CASH) line expected to ship commercial material in the fourth quarter.
Steel Dynamics has repurchased $261 million, or just under 1% of its common stock, so far in the third quarter. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after market close on Oct. 19, 2026.
Price Performance of STLD
Shares of STLD are up 76.2% over the past year compared with the industry’s 73.5% rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TX’s current-year earnings is $6.54 per share, implying a 201.4% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the negative average surprise being 11.1%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IOSP’s fiscal current-year earnings is pegged at $5.03 per share, implying a 4.55% year-over-year decrease. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 12.9%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVNT’s current-year earnings is pegged at $3.2 per share, indicating a 13.5% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.4%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Steel Dynamics Expects Higher Q3 Earnings on Strong Steel Demand
Key Takeaways
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD - Free Report) expects third-quarter 2026 earnings of $5.34-$5.38 per share, well above $3.69 in the second quarter and $2.74 in the year-ago quarter. Stronger steel metal margins, record shipments, higher realized selling prices and lower scrap costs are projected to drive the significant sequential improvement in steel operations profitability. Healthy order activity, solid end-market demand and low customer inventories are also supporting pricing conditions.
Steel fabrication earnings are expected to improve modestly on higher shipments, despite narrower metal spreads. The backlog is nearly 50% above prior-year levels and extends through the first quarter of 2027, supported by demand from commercial construction, data centers, manufacturing and healthcare. The company also expects fabrication volumes to grow in 2027, aided by domestic manufacturing investment, infrastructure spending and onshoring activity.
Metals recycling earnings are expected to decline sequentially due to lower metal spreads and slightly weaker shipments. Aluminum earnings are expected to improve meaningfully on higher shipments. The company continues to advance its Columbus, MS aluminum flat rolled mill, with all three cold mills operational and the first Continuous Annealing and Solution Heat (CASH) line expected to ship commercial material in the fourth quarter.
Steel Dynamics has repurchased $261 million, or just under 1% of its common stock, so far in the third quarter. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after market close on Oct. 19, 2026.
Price Performance of STLD
Shares of STLD are up 76.2% over the past year compared with the industry’s 73.5% rise.
STLD’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
STLD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Ternium S.A. (TX - Free Report) , Innospec Inc. (IOSP - Free Report) and Avient Corporation (AVNT - Free Report) . TX sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while IOSP and AVNT carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TX’s current-year earnings is $6.54 per share, implying a 201.4% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the negative average surprise being 11.1%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IOSP’s fiscal current-year earnings is pegged at $5.03 per share, implying a 4.55% year-over-year decrease. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 12.9%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVNT’s current-year earnings is pegged at $3.2 per share, indicating a 13.5% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.4%.