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GL Outperforms Industry, Trades at a Discount: How to Play the Stock

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Key Takeaways

  • Globe Life expects 2026 total premium revenues to grow 6.5-7%, with health premiums up 14-16%.
  • AI investments target better underwriting, customer engagement & lower administrative costs.
  • Globe Life expects $670-$700 million of 2026 buybacks, alongside approximately $95 million of dividends.

Shares of Globe Life Inc. (GL - Free Report) have gained 20% in the past year, outperforming its industry, the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s growth of 10.4%, 7% and 14.8%, respectively. 

The insurer has a market capitalization of $13.23 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 0.5 million.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

GL Shares are Affordable

Globe Life shares are trading at a discount compared to the industry. Its forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.58X is lower than the industry average of 13.29X, the Finance sector’s 16.29X and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite’s 19.54X. Also, it has a Value Score of B.

Shares of other insurers like Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) and AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF - Free Report) are also trading at a discount to the industry average, while Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) is trading at a multiple.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

GL Trading Above 200-Day Moving Average

Shares of Globe Life closed at $172.26 on Thursday and are trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $155.35, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data.

GL’s Growth Projection Encourages

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Globe Life’s 2026 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 8.2%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $6.40 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 6.3%. 

The consensus estimate for 2027 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 5.1% and 6%, respectively, from the corresponding 2026 estimates.

Target Price Reflects Potential Upside

Based on short-term price targets offered by 13 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $192.46 per share. The average indicates a potential 11.3% upside from the last closing price.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

GL’s Return on Capital

GL’s trailing 12-month return on equity is 20.5%, ahead of the industry average of 13.3%. Return on equity, a profitability measure, reflects how effectively a company is utilizing its shareholders’ equity. 

Also, return on invested capital (ROIC) in the trailing 12 months was 12.2%, above the industry average of 6.3%. Its ROIC has increased over the last few quarters amid capital investment during the same period. This reflects the company’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income.

Key Points to Note for Globe Life

Globe Life continues to strengthen its growth outlook through a combination of premium expansion, technology adoption, distribution investments, rising investment income and shareholder-friendly capital deployment. The company’s diversified product portfolio and multiple distribution channels position it to capture opportunities across life and supplemental health markets.

Globe Life’s premium growth remains a key earnings driver. Management expects 2026 total premium revenue to increase 6.5-7%, with health premiums projected to grow 14-16%. Medicare Supplement rate increases and stronger sales at United American and Family Heritage are supporting health growth. Approximately $65 million of additional 2026 premium is expected from approved rate increases on individual Medicare Supplement policies.

Technology investments could further enhance profitability. Globe Life is expanding artificial intelligence across applications, customer service and claims processing. Broader AI adoption is expected to improve underwriting, sales productivity and customer engagement while gradually lowering administrative costs.

Distribution expansion is another important growth lever. Management expects mid-single-digit growth in agent count and life sales at American Income in the second half. Liberty National and Family Heritage also posted agent-count growth, supporting future premium generation.

Globe Life’s solid capital position enables meaningful shareholder returns. The company repurchased 1.1 million shares for $175 million in the second quarter and expects 2026 buybacks of $670-$700 million, alongside approximately $95 million of dividends.

Conclusion

Overall, Globe Life’s growth prospects remain supported by steady premium expansion, particularly in supplemental health, alongside investments in technology and distribution. Rising AI adoption could improve operating efficiency and support underwriting and sales productivity, while favorable investment yields continue to bolster earnings. 

With multiple growth drivers spanning premiums, productivity, investment income and capital returns, Globe Life is positioned to sustain earnings momentum over the longer term.

Higher return on capital, affordability of shares, and solid growth projections should continue to benefit the insurer over the long term. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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