Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Progressive?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Progressive (PGR Quick QuotePGR - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on October 21, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.26 a share.

By taking the percentage difference between the $4.26 Most Accurate Estimate and the $4.12 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Progressive has an Earnings ESP of +3.35%. Investors should also know that PGR is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

PGR is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Trustmark (TRMK Quick QuoteTRMK - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Trustmark, which is readying to report earnings on October 27, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.00 a share, and TRMK is 36 days out from its next earnings report.

Trustmark's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.76% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.99.

PGR and TRMK's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>