We enter a new trading week rather quietly, with no economic reports or major earnings releases to parse through. As such, we’re seeing market traders flow back into the major indexes after a mostly tough September so far. The Dow is up +444 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is +51 and the Nasdaq +301 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is up +21 points.

Spot oil prices have continued to moderate lower — $10 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $101/bbl on Brent crude — as the basics of a new peace plan are laid out by Iran. No word so far whether the Trump administration has even looked at the proposal at this time. The threat of a conflict escalation throughout the Middle East is very real, however, with Yemeni Houthis flexing their muscle and Saudi Arabia working to fix their bombed pipeline which sends oil to the Red Sea.

Bond yields have also cooled somewhat, though remain at elevated levels: +4.961% on the 10-year and +4.725% on the 2-year. Notably, the yield curve has flattened somewhat in recent days; it had been keeping a relatively steady 40 basis-point (bps) gap between them, but now we’re under 24 bps. Despite a long-term inverted yield curve from 2022-2024 that did not result in a recession, economists do look out for recessionary pressures once 2-year yields go higher than 10-years.

Investors Circle Thursday of This Week

Looking at this week’s calendar of events which may impact market trading, Thursday stands out. Not only Weekly Jobless Claims, like any “normal” trading week not impacted by days off, etc., but Costco ((COST Quick QuoteCOST - Free Report) reports its fiscal Q4 results on its “earnings island” between earnings seasons. The company is expected to see more than +10% growth on its year-over-year earnings and +10% on revenues. The warehouse club giant carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) this morning.

Also on Thursday, China’s President Xi visits Washington DC to meet with President Trump for a summit between the two world-power leaders. Trade is expected to be a major topic, though reporters will hopefully be on hand to see if the two leaders discuss Taiwan’s future. Trump could also use Xi’s help in leaning on Iran to help bring about a peace treaty. China is one of the few countries successfully shipping oil and other products through the Strait of Hormuz.

Finally, Thursday brings us a new Kansas City Fed survey, as well as New Home Sales for August. Sandwiched on either side of these Thursday events are flash Manufacturing/Services PMI for September on Wednesday and Durable Goods Orders for August and a final Consumer Survey update from the University of Michigan.