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The company projects fourth-quarter revenues to be $50 billion (+/- $1 billion). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the top line is pegged at $50.86 billion, which implies year-over-year growth of 349.5%.
Micron Technology estimates adjusted earnings of $31.00 (+/- $1.00). The consensus mark for the bottom line has been revised upward by 6 cents to $31.45 per share over the past seven days, which indicates a year-over-year improvement of approximately 938%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 21.06%.
Micron Technology, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Micron Technology this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
MU’s Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate ($31.71 per share) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate ($31.45 per share), is +0.81%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Micron Technology’s fourth-quarter results are poised to reflect a significant boost from the growing demand for memory chips, fueled by the increasing adoption of graphics processing unit (GPU)-enabled artificial intelligence (AI) servers. As data center operators expand their infrastructure to support generative AI and large language models, memory chips have become essential components. This surge in demand for AI-driven technologies is likely to have bolstered Micron Technology’s revenues during the quarter under review.
Rising demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to have remained the major revenue growth driver for the company in the fourth quarter. Rising AI workloads, including longer context windows, reasoning and more complex models, are increasing the need for higher memory capacity and bandwidth.
Another positive factor is the improving supply-demand dynamics in the memory chip market. For several quarters, MU faced headwinds from excess inventory across various sectors, which heavily impacted its financial results. However, conditions have improved over the past year, which has resulted in an increase in prices for its DRAM and NAND chips.
The favorable supply-demand scenario is expected to have boosted Micron’s DRAM and NAND revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, DRAM revenues for the fourth quarter are expected to hit $38.26 billion, indicating robust year-over-year growth of 325.8%. NAND revenues are forecasted to jump 446.9% to $12.32 billion.
However, inflationary pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties have dampened consumer spending, likely reducing demand for memory chips in key markets, such as smartphones and personal computers. Micron Technology’s heavy reliance on China poses a risk amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.
Micron Technology Share Price Performance
Over the past year, Micron Technology shares have surged 587.3%, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s rise of 26.2%. The stock has also outpaced major semiconductor companies, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM - Free Report) , NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) and Broadcom (AVGO - Free Report) . Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, NVIDIA and Broadcom have rallied 62.9%, 26.1% and 4.2%, respectively.
From a valuation standpoint, MU appears to be trading at a discount relative to the industry and is trading well below its mean. Going by the forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 6.74, significantly lower than 21.16 for the industry.
Micron Technology Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MU stock also trades at a lower multiple compared to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom and NVIDIA. At present, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom and NVIDIA have P/E multiples of 22.61, 19.14 and 17.04, respectively.
Investment Consideration for MU Stock
Micron Technology sits at the heart of several transformative tech trends. The company’s exposure to AI, high-performance data centers, autonomous vehicles and industrial IoT uniquely positions it for sustainable long-term growth. As AI adoption accelerates, the demand for advanced memory solutions like DRAM and NAND is soaring. Micron Technology’s investments in next-generation DRAM and 3D NAND ensure it remains competitive in delivering the performance needed for modern computing.
Micron Technology's HBM business is becoming an increasingly important growth driver. On its last earnings call, the company stated its HBM4 12-high ramp is progressing twice as fast as the HBM3E 12-high ramp, while HBM4 revenues have already surpassed $1 billion. Management also indicated that HBM demand for 2027 and 2028 is well above the company's ability to supply.
Another major positive is Micron Technology's new Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs). It has signed 16 SCAs, generally covering five years, with the agreements representing about 20% of DRAM volume and one-third of NAND volume over their terms. Out of the 16 agreements, 14 carry minimum-price commitments representing approximately $100 billion of cumulative revenues.
The main concern is that Micron Technology remains exposed to memory-market cycles. Its exceptionally high margins could eventually decline if industry supply catches up with demand. At the same time, the company is increasing investment to expand capacity.
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, management projects capital expenditure of around $10 billion, bringing full-year fiscal 2026 capital spending to approximately $27 billion. It also expects capex in every quarter of fiscal 2027 to be above fiscal fourth-quarter levels, with more than half of the year-over-year increase coming from construction capex. These investments are aimed at long-term demand, but they create execution and timing risk. Construction spending will not produce bits immediately, which could limit free cash flow flexibility if demand fluctuates or pricing weakens.
Conclusion: Hold MU Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Micron Technology enters fourth-quarter earnings with several strong catalysts. Robust AI infrastructure spending, rising HBM demand, improving memory prices and better supply-demand conditions should have supported both revenues and profitability.
At the same time, MU stock has already delivered an exceptional rally, while the memory industry remains cyclical and Micron Technology is committing significant capital to expand capacity. These factors argue for a balanced approach rather than chasing the stock aggressively ahead of earnings.
For investors who already own Micron Technology, holding the stock ahead of the fourth-quarter results appears reasonable. The upcoming earnings report should provide important clues about HBM demand, memory pricing, fiscal 2027 growth and the returns Micron Technology can generate from its large capacity investments.
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Micron Likely to Beat Q4 Earnings Estimates: How to Play MU Stock?
Key Takeaways
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results after market close on Sept. 30.
The company projects fourth-quarter revenues to be $50 billion (+/- $1 billion). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the top line is pegged at $50.86 billion, which implies year-over-year growth of 349.5%.
Micron Technology estimates adjusted earnings of $31.00 (+/- $1.00). The consensus mark for the bottom line has been revised upward by 6 cents to $31.45 per share over the past seven days, which indicates a year-over-year improvement of approximately 938%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 21.06%.
Micron Technology, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Micron Technology, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Micron Technology, Inc. Quote
Earnings Whispers for Micron Technology
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Micron Technology this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
MU’s Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate ($31.71 per share) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate ($31.45 per share), is +0.81%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
MU’s Zacks Rank: Micron Technology carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Influence Micron’s Q4 Results
Micron Technology’s fourth-quarter results are poised to reflect a significant boost from the growing demand for memory chips, fueled by the increasing adoption of graphics processing unit (GPU)-enabled artificial intelligence (AI) servers. As data center operators expand their infrastructure to support generative AI and large language models, memory chips have become essential components. This surge in demand for AI-driven technologies is likely to have bolstered Micron Technology’s revenues during the quarter under review.
Rising demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to have remained the major revenue growth driver for the company in the fourth quarter. Rising AI workloads, including longer context windows, reasoning and more complex models, are increasing the need for higher memory capacity and bandwidth.
Another positive factor is the improving supply-demand dynamics in the memory chip market. For several quarters, MU faced headwinds from excess inventory across various sectors, which heavily impacted its financial results. However, conditions have improved over the past year, which has resulted in an increase in prices for its DRAM and NAND chips.
The favorable supply-demand scenario is expected to have boosted Micron’s DRAM and NAND revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, DRAM revenues for the fourth quarter are expected to hit $38.26 billion, indicating robust year-over-year growth of 325.8%. NAND revenues are forecasted to jump 446.9% to $12.32 billion.
However, inflationary pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties have dampened consumer spending, likely reducing demand for memory chips in key markets, such as smartphones and personal computers. Micron Technology’s heavy reliance on China poses a risk amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.
Micron Technology Share Price Performance
Over the past year, Micron Technology shares have surged 587.3%, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s rise of 26.2%. The stock has also outpaced major semiconductor companies, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM - Free Report) , NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) and Broadcom (AVGO - Free Report) . Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, NVIDIA and Broadcom have rallied 62.9%, 26.1% and 4.2%, respectively.
Micron Technology One-Year Price Return Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, MU appears to be trading at a discount relative to the industry and is trading well below its mean. Going by the forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 6.74, significantly lower than 21.16 for the industry.
Micron Technology Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MU stock also trades at a lower multiple compared to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom and NVIDIA. At present, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom and NVIDIA have P/E multiples of 22.61, 19.14 and 17.04, respectively.
Investment Consideration for MU Stock
Micron Technology sits at the heart of several transformative tech trends. The company’s exposure to AI, high-performance data centers, autonomous vehicles and industrial IoT uniquely positions it for sustainable long-term growth. As AI adoption accelerates, the demand for advanced memory solutions like DRAM and NAND is soaring. Micron Technology’s investments in next-generation DRAM and 3D NAND ensure it remains competitive in delivering the performance needed for modern computing.
Micron Technology's HBM business is becoming an increasingly important growth driver. On its last earnings call, the company stated its HBM4 12-high ramp is progressing twice as fast as the HBM3E 12-high ramp, while HBM4 revenues have already surpassed $1 billion. Management also indicated that HBM demand for 2027 and 2028 is well above the company's ability to supply.
Another major positive is Micron Technology's new Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs). It has signed 16 SCAs, generally covering five years, with the agreements representing about 20% of DRAM volume and one-third of NAND volume over their terms. Out of the 16 agreements, 14 carry minimum-price commitments representing approximately $100 billion of cumulative revenues.
The main concern is that Micron Technology remains exposed to memory-market cycles. Its exceptionally high margins could eventually decline if industry supply catches up with demand. At the same time, the company is increasing investment to expand capacity.
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, management projects capital expenditure of around $10 billion, bringing full-year fiscal 2026 capital spending to approximately $27 billion. It also expects capex in every quarter of fiscal 2027 to be above fiscal fourth-quarter levels, with more than half of the year-over-year increase coming from construction capex. These investments are aimed at long-term demand, but they create execution and timing risk. Construction spending will not produce bits immediately, which could limit free cash flow flexibility if demand fluctuates or pricing weakens.
Conclusion: Hold MU Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Micron Technology enters fourth-quarter earnings with several strong catalysts. Robust AI infrastructure spending, rising HBM demand, improving memory prices and better supply-demand conditions should have supported both revenues and profitability.
At the same time, MU stock has already delivered an exceptional rally, while the memory industry remains cyclical and Micron Technology is committing significant capital to expand capacity. These factors argue for a balanced approach rather than chasing the stock aggressively ahead of earnings.
For investors who already own Micron Technology, holding the stock ahead of the fourth-quarter results appears reasonable. The upcoming earnings report should provide important clues about HBM demand, memory pricing, fiscal 2027 growth and the returns Micron Technology can generate from its large capacity investments.