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Vail Resorts to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Vail Resorts is expected to post a Q4 loss of $5.37 per share as revenues dip 0.1% to $271.1 million.
Mountain revenues are projected to rise 5.2%, while strong Australia pass sales may support results.
Vail Resorts expects $106 million in annualized efficiencies, but weak winter weather pressured its outlook.
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN - Free Report) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Sept. 28, after the closing bell. The company has confirmed that its fourth-quarter and full-year results will cover the period ended July 31, 2026.
In the last quarter, its adjusted earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.8%. Notably, MTN delivered better-than-expected earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on three occasions, with an average miss of 2.8%.
Trend in Estimate Revision of MTN
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter loss per share is pegged at $5.37, indicating a decline of 5.7% from $5.08 reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings per share has trended downward to $4.23 over the past seven days.
For net revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $270.1 million, indicating a 0.4% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $271.3 million.
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape MTN’s Quarterly Results
Vail Resorts’ fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 performance is likely to have benefited from stable summer demand across its North American Lodging and Mountain Resort businesses, encouraging momentum in Australia and continued cost-efficiency gains. Strong advance-commitment trends in Australia are likely to have supported results in the to-be-reported quarter.
Stable summer demand across the Mountain Resort business is likely to have aided quarterly performance. Our model predicts Mountain net revenues for the fiscal fourth quarter to increase 5.2% year over year to $190.4 million.
Australia is likely to have supported the company's performance in the fiscal fourth quarter. Vail Resorts entered the Australian ski season with Epic Australia Pass units up approximately 26% and sales dollars up about 31%, reflecting encouraging early demand. This momentum is expected to have supported performance during the quarter under review.
Cost-efficiency initiatives are likely to have supported fiscal fourth-quarter operating performance. Vail Resorts expects to achieve $106 million of annualized efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026, exceeding its original two-year target of $100 million. The program is expected to deliver roughly $45 million of incremental year-over-year efficiencies in fiscal 2026.
However, the difficult North American winter season continued to weigh on full-year earnings expectations entering the fiscal fourth quarter. Unfavorable weather persisted through March and April, with the Rockies experiencing their worst season on record for snowfall and industry-wide visitation in the region declining approximately 24% over the season. The continued weather-related pressure on late-season visitation prompted Vail Resorts to lower its fiscal 2026 Resort reported EBITDA outlook to $735-$755 million. The midpoint implies an approximately 12% year-over-year decline.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for MTN
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MTN: Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of -1.71%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Vail Resorts’ Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model indicates they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
For the to-be-reported quarter, CNK’s earnings are expected to increase 85%. Cinemark reported better-than-expected earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on three occasions, the average miss being 11.4%.
Hasbro (HAS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
the to-be-reported quarter, HAS’ earnings are expected to increase 11.9%. Hasbro’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 23.6%.
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
For the to-be-reported quarter, CHH’s earnings are expected to increase 7.6%. Choice Hotels reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average miss being 4.8%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Vail Resorts to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN - Free Report) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Sept. 28, after the closing bell. The company has confirmed that its fourth-quarter and full-year results will cover the period ended July 31, 2026.
In the last quarter, its adjusted earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.8%. Notably, MTN delivered better-than-expected earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on three occasions, with an average miss of 2.8%.
Trend in Estimate Revision of MTN
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter loss per share is pegged at $5.37, indicating a decline of 5.7% from $5.08 reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings per share has trended downward to $4.23 over the past seven days.
Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Vail Resorts, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Vail Resorts, Inc. Quote
For net revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $270.1 million, indicating a 0.4% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $271.3 million.
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape MTN’s Quarterly Results
Vail Resorts’ fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 performance is likely to have benefited from stable summer demand across its North American Lodging and Mountain Resort businesses, encouraging momentum in Australia and continued cost-efficiency gains. Strong advance-commitment trends in Australia are likely to have supported results in the to-be-reported quarter.
Stable summer demand across the Mountain Resort business is likely to have aided quarterly performance. Our model predicts Mountain net revenues for the fiscal fourth quarter to increase 5.2% year over year to $190.4 million.
Australia is likely to have supported the company's performance in the fiscal fourth quarter. Vail Resorts entered the Australian ski season with Epic Australia Pass units up approximately 26% and sales dollars up about 31%, reflecting encouraging early demand. This momentum is expected to have supported performance during the quarter under review.
Cost-efficiency initiatives are likely to have supported fiscal fourth-quarter operating performance. Vail Resorts expects to achieve $106 million of annualized efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026, exceeding its original two-year target of $100 million. The program is expected to deliver roughly $45 million of incremental year-over-year efficiencies in fiscal 2026.
However, the difficult North American winter season continued to weigh on full-year earnings expectations entering the fiscal fourth quarter. Unfavorable weather persisted through March and April, with the Rockies experiencing their worst season on record for snowfall and industry-wide visitation in the region declining approximately 24% over the season. The continued weather-related pressure on late-season visitation prompted Vail Resorts to lower its fiscal 2026 Resort reported EBITDA outlook to $735-$755 million. The midpoint implies an approximately 12% year-over-year decline.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for MTN
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MTN: Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of -1.71%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Vail Resorts’ Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model indicates they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +33.03% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
For the to-be-reported quarter, CNK’s earnings are expected to increase 85%. Cinemark reported better-than-expected earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on three occasions, the average miss being 11.4%.
Hasbro (HAS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
the to-be-reported quarter, HAS’ earnings are expected to increase 11.9%. Hasbro’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 23.6%.
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
For the to-be-reported quarter, CHH’s earnings are expected to increase 7.6%. Choice Hotels reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average miss being 4.8%.