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How to Find Strong Basic Materials Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
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Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Agnico Eagle Mines?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 29 days from its next quarterly earnings release on October 28, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $2.60 a share.
Agnico Eagle Mines' Earnings ESP sits at +6.05%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.60 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.45. AEM is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AEM is one of just a large database of Basic Materials stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is NexGen Energy (NXE - Free Report) .
NexGen Energy, which is readying to report earnings on November 4, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently -$0.02 a share, and NXE is 36 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NexGen Energy is -$0.03, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +40.00%.
AEM and NXE's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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How to Find Strong Basic Materials Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Agnico Eagle Mines?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 29 days from its next quarterly earnings release on October 28, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $2.60 a share.
Agnico Eagle Mines' Earnings ESP sits at +6.05%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.60 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.45. AEM is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AEM is one of just a large database of Basic Materials stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is NexGen Energy (NXE - Free Report) .
NexGen Energy, which is readying to report earnings on November 4, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently -$0.02 a share, and NXE is 36 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NexGen Energy is -$0.03, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +40.00%.
AEM and NXE's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>