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Ulta Beauty Rises 20.7% in 3 Months: Can Its Rally Keep Going Now?
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Key Takeaways
Ulta Beauty gained 20.7% in three months as Q2 sales and earnings rose and full-year guidance increased.
ULTA's Q2 comparable sales rose 3.8%, driven by a 3.9% higher average ticket as transactions stayed flat.
Ulta Beauty trades at 17.6X forward earnings, above its sub-industry's 14.3X, as traffic remains a risk.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA - Free Report) shares have gained 20.7% in the past three months as the beauty retailer’s operating picture has improved. Second-quarter fiscal 2026 sales and earnings rose, and management raised its full-year outlook after the stronger first half.
The advance now puts more weight on execution. Better results, digital growth and new business initiatives support the setup, but traffic, promotions, margins and valuation leave less room for a stumble.
Ulta Beauty’s 20.7% Gain Reflects a Stronger Setup
ULTA’s three-month gain has coincided with better operating momentum. Second-quarter net sales increased 8.9% to $3.04 billion, while earnings rose 13.3% to $6.55 per share.
Management also raised fiscal 2026 guidance. It now expects net sales growth of 6.7%-7.2%, comparable sales growth of 3.2%-3.7% and earnings of $28.70-$29.00 per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ULTA’s Q2 Beat Adds Fundamental Support
Second-quarter earnings of $6.55 per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.21. Sales of $3.04 billion also came in above the $2.97 billion consensus mark.
Comparable sales rose 3.8%. Average ticket increased 3.9%, while transactions were roughly flat, showing that spending per visit rather than traffic did most of the work.
Ulta Beauty’s Growth Engines Back the Momentum
E-commerce sales grew at a high-teens rate, extending the company’s run of double-digit digital growth. Ulta Beauty also has about 47 million active loyalty members, while Marketplace now includes more than 450 brands and UB Media delivered double-digit growth.
The store base remains another growth lever. Management sees room for more than 1,800 freestanding U.S. locations versus 1,534 at the end of the second quarter. e.l.f. Beauty (ELF - Free Report) , which reported 36% sales growth in its latest quarter, also shows that beauty demand remains active across retailer and e-commerce channels.
ULTA’s Valuation Raises the Bar for More Upside
ULTA trades at 17.6X forward 12-month earnings. That is above the 14.3X Zacks sub-industry multiple but below the stock’s five-year median of 18.5X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The valuation is not extreme relative to Ulta Beauty’s own history, but the recent rally leaves less tolerance for weaker execution. Stronger earnings and sales trends can help support the multiple, while a slowdown could make the premium to the sub-industry harder to defend.
Ulta Beauty Still Faces Traffic and Margin Risks
Traffic remains the clearest near-term constraint. Transactions were roughly flat in the second quarter, promotional activity increased and category trends were uneven, with fragrance strong while makeup was approximately flat.
Management expects gross margin to remain roughly flat for fiscal 2026 and operating margin to improve by no more than 20 basis points. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH - Free Report) sells and distributes professional beauty supplies through Sally Beauty and Beauty Systems Group, keeping competition broad across hair color and hair care.
ULTA’s Mixed Signals Temper the Rally Case
Ulta Beauty’s improved results and higher guidance support the recent advance, but continued gains likely require better traffic and steady execution as comparisons become tougher. Ticket growth alone may not be enough if promotions rise or category strength narrows.
The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with a Growth Score of B, Value Score of C, Momentum Score of D and VGM Score of C. The Growth Score fits a firmer earnings backdrop, including a 0.1% increase in the current-year EPS estimate over the past four weeks. The weaker Momentum Score and middling Value and VGM Scores leave a more balanced signal after the three-month run. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Ulta Beauty Rises 20.7% in 3 Months: Can Its Rally Keep Going Now?
Key Takeaways
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA - Free Report) shares have gained 20.7% in the past three months as the beauty retailer’s operating picture has improved. Second-quarter fiscal 2026 sales and earnings rose, and management raised its full-year outlook after the stronger first half.
The advance now puts more weight on execution. Better results, digital growth and new business initiatives support the setup, but traffic, promotions, margins and valuation leave less room for a stumble.
Ulta Beauty’s 20.7% Gain Reflects a Stronger Setup
ULTA’s three-month gain has coincided with better operating momentum. Second-quarter net sales increased 8.9% to $3.04 billion, while earnings rose 13.3% to $6.55 per share.
Management also raised fiscal 2026 guidance. It now expects net sales growth of 6.7%-7.2%, comparable sales growth of 3.2%-3.7% and earnings of $28.70-$29.00 per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ULTA’s Q2 Beat Adds Fundamental Support
Second-quarter earnings of $6.55 per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.21. Sales of $3.04 billion also came in above the $2.97 billion consensus mark.
Comparable sales rose 3.8%. Average ticket increased 3.9%, while transactions were roughly flat, showing that spending per visit rather than traffic did most of the work.
Ulta Beauty’s Growth Engines Back the Momentum
E-commerce sales grew at a high-teens rate, extending the company’s run of double-digit digital growth. Ulta Beauty also has about 47 million active loyalty members, while Marketplace now includes more than 450 brands and UB Media delivered double-digit growth.
The store base remains another growth lever. Management sees room for more than 1,800 freestanding U.S. locations versus 1,534 at the end of the second quarter. e.l.f. Beauty (ELF - Free Report) , which reported 36% sales growth in its latest quarter, also shows that beauty demand remains active across retailer and e-commerce channels.
ULTA’s Valuation Raises the Bar for More Upside
ULTA trades at 17.6X forward 12-month earnings. That is above the 14.3X Zacks sub-industry multiple but below the stock’s five-year median of 18.5X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The valuation is not extreme relative to Ulta Beauty’s own history, but the recent rally leaves less tolerance for weaker execution. Stronger earnings and sales trends can help support the multiple, while a slowdown could make the premium to the sub-industry harder to defend.
Ulta Beauty Still Faces Traffic and Margin Risks
Traffic remains the clearest near-term constraint. Transactions were roughly flat in the second quarter, promotional activity increased and category trends were uneven, with fragrance strong while makeup was approximately flat.
Management expects gross margin to remain roughly flat for fiscal 2026 and operating margin to improve by no more than 20 basis points. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH - Free Report) sells and distributes professional beauty supplies through Sally Beauty and Beauty Systems Group, keeping competition broad across hair color and hair care.
ULTA’s Mixed Signals Temper the Rally Case
Ulta Beauty’s improved results and higher guidance support the recent advance, but continued gains likely require better traffic and steady execution as comparisons become tougher. Ticket growth alone may not be enough if promotions rise or category strength narrows.
The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with a Growth Score of B, Value Score of C, Momentum Score of D and VGM Score of C. The Growth Score fits a firmer earnings backdrop, including a 0.1% increase in the current-year EPS estimate over the past four weeks. The weaker Momentum Score and middling Value and VGM Scores leave a more balanced signal after the three-month run. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.