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Can Higher H2 Production Support Franco-Nevada's 2026 Guidance?
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Key Takeaways
FNV expects 2026 GEO sales of 510,000-570,000 ounces, tracking toward the upper half of the range.
Higher-grade ore and increased mining rates are expected to boost Candelaria and Tocantinzinho in H2.
Cobre Panama is expected to deliver 23,100 gold and 265,000 silver ounces starting in Q3.
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV - Free Report) has delivered solid performance so far this year with record $1.23 billion revenues in the first half of 2026. FNV’s gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs) sales increased 13% year over year to 268,758 ounces in the same time frame. The upside was aided by stronger precious metal and oil prices, and higher contributions from several assets. This upbeat performance has set an optimistic tone for the second half of the year.
FNV expects total GEOs sales of 510,000-570,000 for 2026 and is tracking toward the upper half of this range due to elevated oil prices. This indicates an increase of 4% at the mid-point from 2025’s GEOs sales of 519,106. Production is expected to be weighted toward the second half, reflecting anticipated production profiles at Candelaria, Tocantinzinho, Côté Gold, Greenstone and Valentine.
Despite lower year-over-year second-quarter 2026 performance, Candelaria’s operator expects a stronger second-half performance, driven by increased availability of higher-grade Phase 12 ore, as well as increased underground mining rates. Tocantinzinho’s second-half performance will gain from higher-grade mineralization becoming available in accordance with the mine plan.
Côté Gold’s production is expected to increase while unit costs are expected to decline through the second half of 2026. Greenstone reported operational improvement in the second quarter and this trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year. Lastly, Valentine’s production is expected to be strong in the second half, driven by higher mill feed grades.
Franco-Nevada also incorporates anticipated deliveries from the processing of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panamá. Franco-Nevada expects stream deliveries from Cobre Panamá to total 23,100 gold ounces and 265,000 silver ounces, with deliveries expected to begin in the third quarter.
Franco-Nevada’s Peer Performances & Outlook
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD - Free Report) reported adjusted EBITDA of $767 million in the first half of 2026, skyrocketing 129% year over year. Royal Gold expects 2026 gold and silver sales to remain within the previously issued 290,000-320,000 ounces and 3-3.5 million ounces, respectively. Copper and other metals sales are trending around or above the top ends of their respective guidance of 21-25 million pounds and 34-38 million. Royal Gold expects GEOs to reach 430,000-480,000 GEOs within five years, driven by expansions and new projects added to the portfolio.
B2Gold Corp. (BTG - Free Report) recorded consolidated gold production of 441,411 ounces in the first half of 2026, up 4.5% year over year. B2Gold expects 2026 consolidated gold production of 820,000-920,000 ounces, narrowing from the prior mentioned 820,000-970,000 ounces. B2Gold’s production was 979,604 ounces in 2025.
FNV’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates
Franco-Nevada’s stock has gained 11.2% in a year compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 16.4% growth. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has risen 15% and the S&P 500 has returned 15.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FNV is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 29.91X, at a premium to the industry average of 12.43X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Franco-Nevada’s 2026 sales is $2.28 billion, indicating 25.2% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is $7.54 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 35%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2027 sales implies 2.6% year-over-year growth. The same for earnings indicates year-over-year growth of 13.4%.
EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending north over the past 60 days, while estimates for 2027 are trending south, as seen in the chart below.
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Image: Bigstock
Can Higher H2 Production Support Franco-Nevada's 2026 Guidance?
Key Takeaways
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV - Free Report) has delivered solid performance so far this year with record $1.23 billion revenues in the first half of 2026. FNV’s gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs) sales increased 13% year over year to 268,758 ounces in the same time frame. The upside was aided by stronger precious metal and oil prices, and higher contributions from several assets. This upbeat performance has set an optimistic tone for the second half of the year.
FNV expects total GEOs sales of 510,000-570,000 for 2026 and is tracking toward the upper half of this range due to elevated oil prices. This indicates an increase of 4% at the mid-point from 2025’s GEOs sales of 519,106. Production is expected to be weighted toward the second half, reflecting anticipated production profiles at Candelaria, Tocantinzinho, Côté Gold, Greenstone and Valentine.
Despite lower year-over-year second-quarter 2026 performance, Candelaria’s operator expects a stronger second-half performance, driven by increased availability of higher-grade Phase 12 ore, as well as increased underground mining rates. Tocantinzinho’s second-half performance will gain from higher-grade mineralization becoming available in accordance with the mine plan.
Côté Gold’s production is expected to increase while unit costs are expected to decline through the second half of 2026. Greenstone reported operational improvement in the second quarter and this trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year. Lastly, Valentine’s production is expected to be strong in the second half, driven by higher mill feed grades.
Franco-Nevada also incorporates anticipated deliveries from the processing of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panamá. Franco-Nevada expects stream deliveries from Cobre Panamá to total 23,100 gold ounces and 265,000 silver ounces, with deliveries expected to begin in the third quarter.
Franco-Nevada’s Peer Performances & Outlook
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD - Free Report) reported adjusted EBITDA of $767 million in the first half of 2026, skyrocketing 129% year over year. Royal Gold expects 2026 gold and silver sales to remain within the previously issued 290,000-320,000 ounces and 3-3.5 million ounces, respectively. Copper and other metals sales are trending around or above the top ends of their respective guidance of 21-25 million pounds and 34-38 million. Royal Gold expects GEOs to reach 430,000-480,000 GEOs within five years, driven by expansions and new projects added to the portfolio.
B2Gold Corp. (BTG - Free Report) recorded consolidated gold production of 441,411 ounces in the first half of 2026, up 4.5% year over year. B2Gold expects 2026 consolidated gold production of 820,000-920,000 ounces, narrowing from the prior mentioned 820,000-970,000 ounces. B2Gold’s production was 979,604 ounces in 2025.
FNV’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates
Franco-Nevada’s stock has gained 11.2% in a year compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 16.4% growth. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has risen 15% and the S&P 500 has returned 15.7%.
FNV is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 29.91X, at a premium to the industry average of 12.43X.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Franco-Nevada’s 2026 sales is $2.28 billion, indicating 25.2% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is $7.54 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 35%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2027 sales implies 2.6% year-over-year growth. The same for earnings indicates year-over-year growth of 13.4%.
EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending north over the past 60 days, while estimates for 2027 are trending south, as seen in the chart below.
FNV currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.