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Can Cracker Barrel Sustain EBITDA Growth Beyond a $15M Tariff Refund?
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Key Takeaways
Cracker Barrel's fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 11.4% to $62.1 million, aided by tariff refunds.
Cracker Barrel plans menu upgrades, cost savings and productivity initiatives to improve fiscal 2027 margins.
CBRL expects traffic improvement and operating efficiencies to support adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2027.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL - Free Report) is pursuing menu-margin improvements and operating efficiencies to support profitability growth in fiscal 2027, following a fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA increase supported by tariff refunds.
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, adjusted EBITDA reached $62.1 million, up 11.4% from $55.7 million in the prior-year quarter. Results included a $9.1 million net tariff refund benefit after Cracker Barrel reinvested $5.9 million of the approximately $15 million refund in the business.
Cracker Barrel is working to improve menu margins through a more favorable sales mix, beyond pricing gains. Appetizers, shareable offerings and the option to upgrade meals to three sides have gained customer traction. The company also plans to enhance chicken, hamburger and steak offerings, targeting dinner, its largest daypart opportunity. These food-quality investments are incorporated into fiscal 2027 guidance, alongside cost savings and productivity initiatives involving support functions and technology.
However, operating pressures persist. In the fiscal fourth quarter, restaurant traffic declined 6.1% year over year, although the company reported continued gradual improvement in the underlying traffic trend after adjusting for variability in prior-year comparisons. Labor and related expenses increased to 37.5% of revenues from 36.5% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting sales deleverage, the reversal of a prior-year kitchen labor initiative and higher store bonuses. The company also continues to see softness among lower-income guests.
Cracker Barrel expects traffic improvements, stronger menu mix and operating efficiencies to support profitability gains in fiscal 2027. CBRL projects adjusted EBITDA of $180-$200 million for the year.
CBRL’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Cracker Barrel’s shares have gained 28.8% in the past year against the industry’s decline of 12.8%. In the same time frame, other industry players like The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) and BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) have surged 101.7% and 98.5%, respectively.
CBRL’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CBRL trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.37, below the industry’s average of 2.86. Conversely, industry players, such as Cheesecake Factory and BJ's Restaurants, have P/S multiples of 1.29 and 0.88, respectively.
CBRL’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBRL’s fiscal 2027 earnings per share has increased in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of CBRL Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating an 81.3% rise in fiscal 2027. Conversely, industry players like Cheesecake Factory and BJ's Restaurants are likely to witness an increase of 10.7% and 13.3%, year over year, respectively, in 2027 earnings.
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Can Cracker Barrel Sustain EBITDA Growth Beyond a $15M Tariff Refund?
Key Takeaways
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL - Free Report) is pursuing menu-margin improvements and operating efficiencies to support profitability growth in fiscal 2027, following a fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA increase supported by tariff refunds.
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, adjusted EBITDA reached $62.1 million, up 11.4% from $55.7 million in the prior-year quarter. Results included a $9.1 million net tariff refund benefit after Cracker Barrel reinvested $5.9 million of the approximately $15 million refund in the business.
Cracker Barrel is working to improve menu margins through a more favorable sales mix, beyond pricing gains. Appetizers, shareable offerings and the option to upgrade meals to three sides have gained customer traction. The company also plans to enhance chicken, hamburger and steak offerings, targeting dinner, its largest daypart opportunity. These food-quality investments are incorporated into fiscal 2027 guidance, alongside cost savings and productivity initiatives involving support functions and technology.
However, operating pressures persist. In the fiscal fourth quarter, restaurant traffic declined 6.1% year over year, although the company reported continued gradual improvement in the underlying traffic trend after adjusting for variability in prior-year comparisons. Labor and related expenses increased to 37.5% of revenues from 36.5% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting sales deleverage, the reversal of a prior-year kitchen labor initiative and higher store bonuses. The company also continues to see softness among lower-income guests.
Cracker Barrel expects traffic improvements, stronger menu mix and operating efficiencies to support profitability gains in fiscal 2027. CBRL projects adjusted EBITDA of $180-$200 million for the year.
CBRL’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Cracker Barrel’s shares have gained 28.8% in the past year against the industry’s decline of 12.8%. In the same time frame, other industry players like The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) and BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) have surged 101.7% and 98.5%, respectively.
CBRL’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CBRL trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.37, below the industry’s average of 2.86. Conversely, industry players, such as Cheesecake Factory and BJ's Restaurants, have P/S multiples of 1.29 and 0.88, respectively.
CBRL’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBRL’s fiscal 2027 earnings per share has increased in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of CBRL Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating an 81.3% rise in fiscal 2027. Conversely, industry players like Cheesecake Factory and BJ's Restaurants are likely to witness an increase of 10.7% and 13.3%, year over year, respectively, in 2027 earnings.
Cracker Barrel stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.