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Pre-market futures are up this morning, adding to the Nasdaq’s all-time-high close on Monday afternoon. The blue-chip Dow is +180 points at this hour, the Nasdaq is +120 points and the S&P 500 is +28 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is +13 points, presently. The anticipation of tech earnings are helping unlock positive sentiment ahead of Q3 report releases, including the attention-grabbing headline of NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) approaching an awe-inspiring $6 trillion market cap.
Brent crude oil — the London commodity index tracking international oil prices — is back down below $100 per barrel (/bbl) again this morning, with the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down below $90/bbl. Both indexes are more than -2.5% this morning. Without any concrete details regarding the war in Iran drawing to a close, conventional “wisdom” these days is that the conflict will come to an end after the midterm elections.
Bond yields have also moderated of late, while hovering at post-Great Recession (2009) highs above +5% on the 10-year. Currently, 10s are at +5.277%, the 2-year is +4.793% — representing a recent widening of the yield curve between the two, which had been tightening up of late — and the 30-year yield, telegraphing somewhat where 30-year fixed mortgage rates are headed, is currently +5.645%.
Trade Deficit Sinks to Deepest Level in 18 Months
Ahead of today’s open, the U.S. Trade Balance for August fell deeper than anticipated into negative territory: -$105.6 billion, from a revised -$92.8 billion (-$88.6 billion when initially reported) a month ago. This is the deepest trade deficit since the all-time low set back in March of 2025, -$132.98 billion, which directly preceded President Trump’s massive tariff initiative then known as “Liberation Day” (which lasted a week before tariff levels were largely rescinded).
Both Imports and Exports were up for the month: +1.4% and +4.3%, respectively. Total Imports reached $420.8 billion in the month, with August capital goods setting a new record high at $6.2 billion. These were particularly aligned with microchips from Taiwan imported to power the massive AI buildout, as well as higher oil prices.
Through the first four months of 2026, it appeared as if our trade deficit was under control, hovering steadily in the -$55 billion range. This deserved no prize, for sure, but we’re currently near double that deficit — having absorbed much of the tariff initiatives by then, but just taking on the higher oil prices following the attack on Iran.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
We’re still a couple days away from big companies likePepsiCo (PEP - Free Report) and Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) reporting Q3 earnings, but after today’s close we’ll hear from liquor provider Constellation Brands (STZ - Free Report) with its fiscal Q2 earnings numbers. Expectations are for slightly lower earnings growth year over year, -0.28%, on +3.58% growth on revenues. Changing habits among consumers — including household economy belt-tightening and use of GLP-1s (which constitutes “belt tightening” of a different kind) — has helped take shares well down from their 2024 levels.
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Premarket in Green
Pre-market futures are up this morning, adding to the Nasdaq’s all-time-high close on Monday afternoon. The blue-chip Dow is +180 points at this hour, the Nasdaq is +120 points and the S&P 500 is +28 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is +13 points, presently. The anticipation of tech earnings are helping unlock positive sentiment ahead of Q3 report releases, including the attention-grabbing headline of NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) approaching an awe-inspiring $6 trillion market cap.
Brent crude oil — the London commodity index tracking international oil prices — is back down below $100 per barrel (/bbl) again this morning, with the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down below $90/bbl. Both indexes are more than -2.5% this morning. Without any concrete details regarding the war in Iran drawing to a close, conventional “wisdom” these days is that the conflict will come to an end after the midterm elections.
Bond yields have also moderated of late, while hovering at post-Great Recession (2009) highs above +5% on the 10-year. Currently, 10s are at +5.277%, the 2-year is +4.793% — representing a recent widening of the yield curve between the two, which had been tightening up of late — and the 30-year yield, telegraphing somewhat where 30-year fixed mortgage rates are headed, is currently +5.645%.
Trade Deficit Sinks to Deepest Level in 18 Months
Ahead of today’s open, the U.S. Trade Balance for August fell deeper than anticipated into negative territory: -$105.6 billion, from a revised -$92.8 billion (-$88.6 billion when initially reported) a month ago. This is the deepest trade deficit since the all-time low set back in March of 2025, -$132.98 billion, which directly preceded President Trump’s massive tariff initiative then known as “Liberation Day” (which lasted a week before tariff levels were largely rescinded).
Both Imports and Exports were up for the month: +1.4% and +4.3%, respectively. Total Imports reached $420.8 billion in the month, with August capital goods setting a new record high at $6.2 billion. These were particularly aligned with microchips from Taiwan imported to power the massive AI buildout, as well as higher oil prices.
Through the first four months of 2026, it appeared as if our trade deficit was under control, hovering steadily in the -$55 billion range. This deserved no prize, for sure, but we’re currently near double that deficit — having absorbed much of the tariff initiatives by then, but just taking on the higher oil prices following the attack on Iran.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
We’re still a couple days away from big companies likePepsiCo (PEP - Free Report) and Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) reporting Q3 earnings, but after today’s close we’ll hear from liquor provider Constellation Brands (STZ - Free Report) with its fiscal Q2 earnings numbers. Expectations are for slightly lower earnings growth year over year, -0.28%, on +3.58% growth on revenues. Changing habits among consumers — including household economy belt-tightening and use of GLP-1s (which constitutes “belt tightening” of a different kind) — has helped take shares well down from their 2024 levels.