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Rivian & Lucid After Q3 Deliveries: Is Either Stock a Buy Now?
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Key Takeaways
Rivian delivered a record 19,248 vehicles in Q3, up 45.8% year over year and 58% sequentially.
Lucid delivered 3,806 vehicles as sales fell 6.6% year over year and production dropped sharply.
Rivian holds the edge, but investors should watch whether R2 scale improves profitability.
The third-quarter delivery numbers are in for two of America's best-known EV startups, and they tell opposite stories. Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) logged record deliveries and beat expectations. Lucid Group’s (LCID - Free Report) deliveries slipped and the company leaned on old inventory. Both companies still burn heavy cash and sell cars at weak margins. Let’s assess which stock has an edge now. Before that, here’s a closer look at their delivery numbers.
RIVN’s Record Quarter
Rivian built 19,751 vehicles at its Illinois plant and delivered 19,248, topping Wall Street's average estimate of 18,000, per CNBC. Deliveries rose 45.8% from the year-ago quarter and 58% sequentially.
The driver was R2, a smaller and cheaper SUV that began reaching customers in June. Until then, Rivian sold only premium vehicles, the R1S SUV and R1T pickup. A lower-priced model matters more now that federal EV tax credits have ended, tariffs are biting and industry demand is soft. Management says the R2 ramp is on track and volumes should climb over the coming quarters.
Rivian reaffirmed its 2026 target of 65,000 to 70,000 deliveries, higher from 42,247 delivered last year. After 41,807 deliveries in the first nine months of 2026, it needs at least 23,193 more in the fourth quarter to reach the bottom of that range, about 20% above third-quarter’s record. That is demanding but plausible if R2 output keeps rising. Since third-quarter deliveries already beat estimates, the bar is high, and any slip in R2 supply would be concerning.
Lucid’s Weaker Sales & Smaller Output
Lucid delivered 3,806 vehicles but produced only 2,954. Deliveries fell short of analyst estimates. They were down 6.6% on a yearly basis and 3.7% sequentially. Production dropped 38% from 4,774 in second-quarter 2026 after the company removed a second shift at its Arizona plant. Selling from stock instead of building new cars is part of a broader cost overhaul.
Lucid is attempting a company-wide reset aimed at $1.4 billion in cash flow gains this year— roughly $600-800 million from inventory, $500 million from capital spending and $200 million from operating costs. That helps preserve cash, but it does not fix the underlying economics of the business.
In the first nine months of 2026, Lucid delivered 10,852 vehicles. The company sold 15,841 units last year. To merely match 2025 levels, it needs to deliver 4,989 vehicles in the fourth quarter, roughly 31% more than the September quarter. That looks quite unlikely, although Lucid says demand for its Gravity SUV is regaining momentum.
Autonomy Bets on Both Sides
Both firms are chasing robotaxi revenues. Lucid's new deal with Bolt, a European ride platform, targets at least 25,000 autonomous vehicles as part of Bolt's goal of 100,000 by 2035. Separately, Uber Technologies has committed to at least 35,000 Lucid cars and invested $500 million. Nuro and NVIDIA are also partners.
Rivian also signed with Uber in March for up to 50,000 R2 robotaxis, with the latter pledging up to $1.25 billion through 2031, tied to milestones. Volkswagen is another pillar. Its joint venture supplied 60% of Rivian's software and services revenues in the second quarter, and Rivian expects $1 billion in non-recourse debt financing from Volkswagen this year.
These deals offer long-term optionality, but for now they are promises, not profits.
Margins Remain the Core Problem
Lucid’s gross margin was negative 105% in the second quarter, and free cash flow was negative $1.48 billion, underscoring how far vehicle economics are from breakeven. Reaching positive margins will require better fixed-cost absorption, lower conversion costs and tighter inventory control. Lower production, however, limits the scale benefits it can capture.
Rivian is closer to breakeven compared to Lucid but still loses money on its vehicles. Its second-quarter automotive gross loss was $36 million, a negative 3% margin, and the R2 launch added about $100 million in extra costs from ramp inefficiencies, expedited freight and supplier premiums. The pressure is expected to continue in the third quarter before scale benefits emerge in the final quarter of 2026. In the June quarter, Rivian’s free cash flow was negative $849 million.
Price Performance & Estimates
Year to date, Lucid has tanked more than 60%, underperforming Rivian’s decline of 26%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimates indicate that Rivian's loss per share will narrow 8% in 2026 and a further 23% in 2027.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lucid's loss per share is expected to widen 0.5% this year before shrinking 46.5% in 2027.
But Lucid is the weaker case, with shrinking deliveries and a gross margin that is deeply negative. It is likely to post weaker annual deliveries in 2026. Meanwhile, Rivian is poised for full-year 2026 delivery growth. Credible product ramp and strategic backers augur well for RIVN, but it still burns cash and needs fourth-quarter margins to improve sharply.
While Rivian holds an edge over Lucid currently, investors should consider the stock only if the fourth quarter shows R2 scale narrowing its automotive gross loss to breakeven or better.
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Rivian & Lucid After Q3 Deliveries: Is Either Stock a Buy Now?
Key Takeaways
The third-quarter delivery numbers are in for two of America's best-known EV startups, and they tell opposite stories. Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) logged record deliveries and beat expectations. Lucid Group’s (LCID - Free Report) deliveries slipped and the company leaned on old inventory. Both companies still burn heavy cash and sell cars at weak margins. Let’s assess which stock has an edge now. Before that, here’s a closer look at their delivery numbers.
RIVN’s Record Quarter
Rivian built 19,751 vehicles at its Illinois plant and delivered 19,248, topping Wall Street's average estimate of 18,000, per CNBC. Deliveries rose 45.8% from the year-ago quarter and 58% sequentially.
The driver was R2, a smaller and cheaper SUV that began reaching customers in June. Until then, Rivian sold only premium vehicles, the R1S SUV and R1T pickup. A lower-priced model matters more now that federal EV tax credits have ended, tariffs are biting and industry demand is soft. Management says the R2 ramp is on track and volumes should climb over the coming quarters.
Rivian reaffirmed its 2026 target of 65,000 to 70,000 deliveries, higher from 42,247 delivered last year. After 41,807 deliveries in the first nine months of 2026, it needs at least 23,193 more in the fourth quarter to reach the bottom of that range, about 20% above third-quarter’s record. That is demanding but plausible if R2 output keeps rising. Since third-quarter deliveries already beat estimates, the bar is high, and any slip in R2 supply would be concerning.
Lucid’s Weaker Sales & Smaller Output
Lucid delivered 3,806 vehicles but produced only 2,954. Deliveries fell short of analyst estimates. They were down 6.6% on a yearly basis and 3.7% sequentially. Production dropped 38% from 4,774 in second-quarter 2026 after the company removed a second shift at its Arizona plant. Selling from stock instead of building new cars is part of a broader cost overhaul.
Lucid is attempting a company-wide reset aimed at $1.4 billion in cash flow gains this year— roughly $600-800 million from inventory, $500 million from capital spending and $200 million from operating costs. That helps preserve cash, but it does not fix the underlying economics of the business.
In the first nine months of 2026, Lucid delivered 10,852 vehicles. The company sold 15,841 units last year. To merely match 2025 levels, it needs to deliver 4,989 vehicles in the fourth quarter, roughly 31% more than the September quarter. That looks quite unlikely, although Lucid says demand for its Gravity SUV is regaining momentum.
Autonomy Bets on Both Sides
Both firms are chasing robotaxi revenues. Lucid's new deal with Bolt, a European ride platform, targets at least 25,000 autonomous vehicles as part of Bolt's goal of 100,000 by 2035. Separately, Uber Technologies has committed to at least 35,000 Lucid cars and invested $500 million. Nuro and NVIDIA are also partners.
Rivian also signed with Uber in March for up to 50,000 R2 robotaxis, with the latter pledging up to $1.25 billion through 2031, tied to milestones. Volkswagen is another pillar. Its joint venture supplied 60% of Rivian's software and services revenues in the second quarter, and Rivian expects $1 billion in non-recourse debt financing from Volkswagen this year.
These deals offer long-term optionality, but for now they are promises, not profits.
Margins Remain the Core Problem
Lucid’s gross margin was negative 105% in the second quarter, and free cash flow was negative $1.48 billion, underscoring how far vehicle economics are from breakeven. Reaching positive margins will require better fixed-cost absorption, lower conversion costs and tighter inventory control. Lower production, however, limits the scale benefits it can capture.
Rivian is closer to breakeven compared to Lucid but still loses money on its vehicles. Its second-quarter automotive gross loss was $36 million, a negative 3% margin, and the R2 launch added about $100 million in extra costs from ramp inefficiencies, expedited freight and supplier premiums. The pressure is expected to continue in the third quarter before scale benefits emerge in the final quarter of 2026. In the June quarter, Rivian’s free cash flow was negative $849 million.
Price Performance & Estimates
Year to date, Lucid has tanked more than 60%, underperforming Rivian’s decline of 26%.
The consensus estimates indicate that Rivian's loss per share will narrow 8% in 2026 and a further 23% in 2027.
Lucid's loss per share is expected to widen 0.5% this year before shrinking 46.5% in 2027.
Our Take
Neither Rivian nor Lucid is a clean buy today. Both carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) currently.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
But Lucid is the weaker case, with shrinking deliveries and a gross margin that is deeply negative. It is likely to post weaker annual deliveries in 2026. Meanwhile, Rivian is poised for full-year 2026 delivery growth. Credible product ramp and strategic backers augur well for RIVN, but it still burns cash and needs fourth-quarter margins to improve sharply.
While Rivian holds an edge over Lucid currently, investors should consider the stock only if the fourth quarter shows R2 scale narrowing its automotive gross loss to breakeven or better.