We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Will State Regulators Slow Robinhood's Prediction-Market Growth?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
Robinhood faces Ohio enforcement that could restrict sports-event contracts despite federal regulation.
Event-contract revenues surged more than tenfold to $156 million as volumes hit a record 13.6 billion.
Broader state restrictions could reduce HOOD's contract volumes and limit Rothera's revenue potential.
Robinhood Markets’ (HOOD - Free Report) rapidly expanding prediction-market business is encountering a potentially meaningful regulatory hurdle as U.S. states step up efforts to treat sports-event contracts as gambling rather than federally regulated derivatives.
The Ohio Casino Control Commission has reasserted its cease-and-desist order against Robinhood Derivatives, requiring compliance by Oct. 16. The action follows the Sixth Circuit’s Sept. 25 ruling allowing Ohio to enforce its gambling laws against sports-event contracts despite the platforms’ federal commodities-law arguments. Ohio’s order is particularly significant because it covers companies not only offering such contracts but also facilitating them through futures commission merchant or designated contract market activities.
The timing matters for Robinhood. Event-contract revenues surged more than tenfold year over year to $156 million in the second quarter of 2026, exceeding revenues from both equities and cryptocurrencies, while volumes reached a record 13.6 billion contracts. Prediction markets have consequently emerged as one of the fastest-growing monetization engines.
Regulatory pressure is spreading across the industry. Ohio sent similar notices to nine other firms, including Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) , Gemini Space Station (GEMI - Free Report) , Polymarket, ProphetX and Webull Corporation (BULL - Free Report) . In Connecticut, ProphetX, Gemini Space Station and Webull have already exited following regulatory action, while Robinhood, Coinbase and Polymarket remain in discussions with regulators. This indicates that the industry could face a fragmented regulatory environment in which platforms remain federally regulated yet lose access to individual states. If more jurisdictions follow suit, the addressable sports-contract market and transaction volumes could gradually narrow for HOOD and its peers, including Coinbase, Gemini Space Station and Webull.
A broader state-by-state clampdown could also complicate Robinhood’s Rothera strategy. The CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, established through its joint venture with Susquehanna, began routing Robinhood event contracts in June and contributed $17 million of second-quarter event-contract revenues. Restrictions covering both exchanges and firms facilitating contracts could limit volumes and reduce the economics the company hoped to capture through vertical integration.
For HOOD, prediction markets remain an attractive diversification opportunity, but rapid growth now comes with greater regulatory uncertainty. Continued adoption could support revenue growth, while broader state enforcement could temper volumes and Rothera’s monetization potential. The evolving federal-state regulatory divide warrants monitoring when assessing HOOD’s growth outlook and valuation.
Over the past six months, Robinhood shares have jumped 55.9%, outperforming the industry’s 5.5% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HOOD shares are currently trading at a premium to the industry. The company has a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 11.64X compared with the industry average of 3.05X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 4.4%. The trend is likely to continue next year, with earnings expected to jump 35.4%. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been revised higher to $2.14 and $2.90 per share, respectively.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Will State Regulators Slow Robinhood's Prediction-Market Growth?
Key Takeaways
Robinhood Markets’ (HOOD - Free Report) rapidly expanding prediction-market business is encountering a potentially meaningful regulatory hurdle as U.S. states step up efforts to treat sports-event contracts as gambling rather than federally regulated derivatives.
The Ohio Casino Control Commission has reasserted its cease-and-desist order against Robinhood Derivatives, requiring compliance by Oct. 16. The action follows the Sixth Circuit’s Sept. 25 ruling allowing Ohio to enforce its gambling laws against sports-event contracts despite the platforms’ federal commodities-law arguments. Ohio’s order is particularly significant because it covers companies not only offering such contracts but also facilitating them through futures commission merchant or designated contract market activities.
The timing matters for Robinhood. Event-contract revenues surged more than tenfold year over year to $156 million in the second quarter of 2026, exceeding revenues from both equities and cryptocurrencies, while volumes reached a record 13.6 billion contracts. Prediction markets have consequently emerged as one of the fastest-growing monetization engines.
Regulatory pressure is spreading across the industry. Ohio sent similar notices to nine other firms, including Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) , Gemini Space Station (GEMI - Free Report) , Polymarket, ProphetX and Webull Corporation (BULL - Free Report) . In Connecticut, ProphetX, Gemini Space Station and Webull have already exited following regulatory action, while Robinhood, Coinbase and Polymarket remain in discussions with regulators. This indicates that the industry could face a fragmented regulatory environment in which platforms remain federally regulated yet lose access to individual states. If more jurisdictions follow suit, the addressable sports-contract market and transaction volumes could gradually narrow for HOOD and its peers, including Coinbase, Gemini Space Station and Webull.
A broader state-by-state clampdown could also complicate Robinhood’s Rothera strategy. The CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, established through its joint venture with Susquehanna, began routing Robinhood event contracts in June and contributed $17 million of second-quarter event-contract revenues. Restrictions covering both exchanges and firms facilitating contracts could limit volumes and reduce the economics the company hoped to capture through vertical integration.
For HOOD, prediction markets remain an attractive diversification opportunity, but rapid growth now comes with greater regulatory uncertainty. Continued adoption could support revenue growth, while broader state enforcement could temper volumes and Rothera’s monetization potential. The evolving federal-state regulatory divide warrants monitoring when assessing HOOD’s growth outlook and valuation.
Robinhood’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimate Analysis
Over the past six months, Robinhood shares have jumped 55.9%, outperforming the industry’s 5.5% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HOOD shares are currently trading at a premium to the industry. The company has a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 11.64X compared with the industry average of 3.05X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 4.4%. The trend is likely to continue next year, with earnings expected to jump 35.4%. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been revised higher to $2.14 and $2.90 per share, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HOOD currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.