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Can USDC Adoption Reshape Coinbase's Long-Term Growth Profile?

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Key Takeaways

  • COIN held a record $20B in average USDC in Q2 2026, up 44% year over year, with over 30% of circulation.
  • USDC can support recurring revenues tied to reserve economics as circulation and platform balances increase.
  • Rising USDC use in payments, custody, lending and Base could reduce reliance on volatile transaction revenues.

Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) is increasingly being valued as more than a crypto trading platform, with USDC emerging as a potentially important long-term growth engine. Unlike transaction revenues, which are highly sensitive to crypto trading volumes, USDC can generate a more recurring revenue stream tied to broader adoption of blockchain-based payments and digital-dollar usage.

Stablecoins remain central to Coinbase’s revenue mix and payments strategy. Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $20 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 44% year over year, while more than 30% of circulating USDC was held in Coinbase products at quarter-end. As Coinbase participates in the economics of USDC reserves, rising circulation and higher balances across its platform can support continued revenue growth.

USDC is also evolving beyond a trading asset into broader financial infrastructure. Growing adoption by businesses, institutions and consumers for payments, settlement and value transfers could expand Coinbase’s monetization opportunities across custody, payments, trading, lending and onchain applications. Rising stablecoin activity on Base, Coinbase’s Layer-2 network, further strengthens this opportunity.

Increased stablecoin adoption can deepen Coinbase’s ecosystem and generate activity across multiple products, helping reduce its historical reliance on volatile transaction revenues. If stablecoins become a mainstream settlement layer, Coinbase’s distribution, custody and Base infrastructure could position USDC as a core pillar of long-term growth and subscription and services revenues.

What About COIN’s Peers?

Stablecoins, especially USDC, are also fundamental to Circle Internet Group’s (CRCL - Free Report) business strategy. As USDC’s issuer, Circle earns revenues through interest on reserves and transaction flows. Stablecoins also support Circle’s expansion into payments, DeFi and global finance, reinforcing its role as a core infrastructure provider in the digital asset ecosystem.

Stablecoins play a growing role in BlackRock Inc.’s (BLK - Free Report) digital strategy. Through its partnership with Circle, it manages USDC reserves, gaining direct exposure to stablecoin infrastructure. This supports BlackRock’s broader push to modernize finance by leveraging blockchain technology for tokenized assets, real-time settlements and more efficient capital markets.

COIN’s Price Performance

Shares of COIN have lost 21.2% in the year-to-date period, underperforming the industry.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

COIN’s Expensive Valuation

COIN trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 81.08, significantly above the industry average of 15.45.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Estimate Movement for COIN

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s third-quarter and fourth-quarter 2026 earnings per share (EPS) witnessed northbound movement in the last 30 days. The same holds true for 2026 and 2027.
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The consensus estimates for COIN’s 2026 revenues and earnings indicate year-over-year decreases. Nonetheless, the consensus estimates for 2027 revenues and earnings imply year-over-year increases.

COIN stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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