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In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 1%.
DPZ’s earnings topped the consensus mark in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining three occasions, the average surprise being negative 0.6%.
Trend in DPZ’s Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.33 per share, which implies 6.1% growth from the prior-year quarter. In the past seven days, estimates for earnings have declined.
The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.17 billion, indicating growth of 1.6% from the year-ago level.
Factors Likely to Shape DPZ’s Fiscal Q3 Results
Revenues
Domino’s third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues are likely to have benefited from stronger order growth, value-focused promotions and continued expansion through aggregators. The company has adjusted its second-half marketing calendar, with the revised Best Deal Ever promotion adding Stuffed Crust and a new pizza product planned for the fiscal third quarter. These initiatives are expected to have supported customer traffic and create additional ordering occasions.
The company also expects the ticket headwind from the prior-year Stuffed Crust promotion to ease in the third quarter. The lower impact from the prior-year promotional mix is likely to support a better balance between order growth and ticket.
For the fiscal third quarter, our model predicts comps at the U.S. company-owned and franchise stores to grow 3.4% and 5.3%, respectively, year over year. Also, we expect international comps to decrease 0.1% year over year.
However, competitive pressure and a challenging macroeconomic environment are likely to have remained headwinds. The company expects competitive pressures to continue, while macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty might have weighed on international operations.
Our model predicts total U.S. store revenues to decline 8.4% from the year-ago levels to $340.2 million. The decline is likely to have reflected the impact of refranchising, while underlying demand is expected to have benefited from order growth, value-focused promotions and continued expansion of the aggregator channel. The company’s focus on driving order counts and adding new stores also supports the underlying U.S. business.
Per our model, supply-chain revenues are likely to rise 6.2% from the prior-year actuals to $740.1 million. International Franchise Royalties and Fees are expected to increase 2.9% year over year to $80.9 million.
Margins & Earnings
Domino’s fiscal third-quarter earnings are likely to have benefited from higher order counts and continued growth in the aggregator channel. The company has also been focused on maintaining profitable growth in the aggregator business, with pricing designed to protect franchisee profitability. The improved ticket mix in the fiscal third quarter is likely to have provided additional support to profitability.
Our model forecasts fiscal third-quarter EBITDA and operating margins to expand 50 basis points and 30 basis points, respectively, to 21.7% and 19.8%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Domino's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.
DPZ’s Earnings ESP: Domino's has an Earnings ESP of +0.19%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Domino's Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale you may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAKE’s earnings are expected to rise 30.9% year over year. CAKE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 10.1%.
Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. In the to-be-reported quarter, SHAK’s earnings are expected to register an 11.1% year-over-year decline. SHAK’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average negative surprise of 10.6%.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Starbucks’ earnings are expected to register a 38.5% year-over-year increase. Starbucks’ earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 8.4%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Domino's to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Oct. 13, before the opening bell.
In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 1%.
DPZ’s earnings topped the consensus mark in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining three occasions, the average surprise being negative 0.6%.
Trend in DPZ’s Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.33 per share, which implies 6.1% growth from the prior-year quarter. In the past seven days, estimates for earnings have declined.
Domino's Pizza Inc Price and EPS Surprise
Domino's Pizza Inc price-eps-surprise | Domino's Pizza Inc Quote
The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.17 billion, indicating growth of 1.6% from the year-ago level.
Factors Likely to Shape DPZ’s Fiscal Q3 Results
Revenues
Domino’s third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues are likely to have benefited from stronger order growth, value-focused promotions and continued expansion through aggregators. The company has adjusted its second-half marketing calendar, with the revised Best Deal Ever promotion adding Stuffed Crust and a new pizza product planned for the fiscal third quarter. These initiatives are expected to have supported customer traffic and create additional ordering occasions.
The company also expects the ticket headwind from the prior-year Stuffed Crust promotion to ease in the third quarter. The lower impact from the prior-year promotional mix is likely to support a better balance between order growth and ticket.
For the fiscal third quarter, our model predicts comps at the U.S. company-owned and franchise stores to grow 3.4% and 5.3%, respectively, year over year. Also, we expect international comps to decrease 0.1% year over year.
However, competitive pressure and a challenging macroeconomic environment are likely to have remained headwinds. The company expects competitive pressures to continue, while macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty might have weighed on international operations.
Our model predicts total U.S. store revenues to decline 8.4% from the year-ago levels to $340.2 million. The decline is likely to have reflected the impact of refranchising, while underlying demand is expected to have benefited from order growth, value-focused promotions and continued expansion of the aggregator channel. The company’s focus on driving order counts and adding new stores also supports the underlying U.S. business.
Per our model, supply-chain revenues are likely to rise 6.2% from the prior-year actuals to $740.1 million. International Franchise Royalties and Fees are expected to increase 2.9% year over year to $80.9 million.
Margins & Earnings
Domino’s fiscal third-quarter earnings are likely to have benefited from higher order counts and continued growth in the aggregator channel. The company has also been focused on maintaining profitable growth in the aggregator business, with pricing designed to protect franchisee profitability. The improved ticket mix in the fiscal third quarter is likely to have provided additional support to profitability.
Our model forecasts fiscal third-quarter EBITDA and operating margins to expand 50 basis points and 30 basis points, respectively, to 21.7% and 19.8%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Domino's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.
DPZ’s Earnings ESP: Domino's has an Earnings ESP of +0.19%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Domino's Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale you may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.75% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAKE’s earnings are expected to rise 30.9% year over year. CAKE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 10.1%.
Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, SHAK’s earnings are expected to register an 11.1% year-over-year decline. SHAK’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average negative surprise of 10.6%.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Starbucks’ earnings are expected to register a 38.5% year-over-year increase. Starbucks’ earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 8.4%.