It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO Quick QuoteAVO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 6.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mission Produce due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Mission Produce, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

AVO Q3 Earnings Beat on Farming Strength and Calavo Contribution

Mission Produce posted third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, wherein the top and bottom lines surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Meanwhile, earnings declined while revenues increased year over year.

The company reported adjusted earnings of 18 cents per share compared with 26 cents in the year-ago quarter and surpassed the consensus estimate of 10 cents. The beat came as results benefited from stronger-than-expected International Farming performance and encouraging contributions from Calavo.

Insight Into AVO’s Q3 Performance

Revenues of $450 million rose 25.8% year over year and topped the $368 million consensus estimate by 22.3%. Avocado volume increased 37.7% to 252.7 million pounds, reflecting the Calavo acquisition and higher legacy Mission Produce volume.

Average avocado sales price declined 9.2% year over year to $1.58 per pound as elevated industry supply pressured pricing. Management said U.S. retail avocado volume grew about 9% year over year even as the average retail price increased about 15% sequentially.

U.S. avocado consumption remained above 10 pounds per capita year to date, up 12% from last year, while household penetration increased about 50 basis points. Legacy Mission Produce also increased its estimated U.S. retail market share by about 60 basis points year to date.

Gross profit was $44.7 million compared with $45.1 million a year ago. Gross margin fell 270 basis points to 9.9%, as lower International Farming pricing offset benefits from Calavo in Marketing & Distribution.

SG&A, excluding transaction advisory and integration costs, increased to $31.6 million from $24 million, mainly due to Calavo's cost structure. Transaction advisory and integration costs were $12.6 million, while acquired inventory step-up amortization totaled $5.2 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was $32.4 million versus $32.6 million last year and exceeded the high end of Mission Produce's prior $28 million to $32 million fiscal third-quarter guidance range. The outperformance reflected stronger-than-anticipated International Farming results and solid Calavo performance.

Avocado operating metrics: 252.7 million pounds sold (up 15% y/y) at an average sales price of $1.58 per pound (down 35.5% y/y from $2).

AVO’s Segment Mix Highlights

Marketing & Distribution sales increased 20.4% year over year to $414.3 million, helped by higher avocado volume. Segment adjusted EBITDA rose 23.5% to $24.7 million, primarily reflecting higher gross margin from Calavo's post-acquisition contribution.

Prepared Foods, now reported separately following the acquisition, generated $15.5 million in sales and $0.2 million in adjusted EBITDA for the post-acquisition period. Management noted that the results cover only part of the quarter and are not representative of a full-quarter run rate.

International Farming sales declined 6.5% year over year to $45.8 million, while segment adjusted EBITDA fell 37.2% to $7.6 million. Lower average avocado sales prices weighed on the comparison, though stronger-than-expected sales returns drove results above management's expectations.

Mission Produce expects 120 million to 130 million pounds of exportable avocado production from its owned Peru farms this season, up from 105 million pounds last year. About 53 million pounds had been sold through the end of the fiscal third quarter, leaving a greater concentration of sales for the fiscal fourth quarter.

Blueberries segment sales rose 20.0% to $5.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $0.1 million compared with an income of $0.5 million a year ago. Most blueberry sales and profitability are concentrated in the fourth and first quarters.

AVO’s Other Financials

Cash and cash equivalents were $47.1 million as of July 31, 2026, down from $64.8 million as of Oct. 31, 2025. Total long-term debt, including the current portion and net debt issuance costs, was about $400.3 million, while quarterly interest expense increased to $5.1 million from $2.4 million.

Net cash used in operating activities was $25.9 million for the first nine months, compared with $21.4 million of cash provided a year earlier. Capital expenditures totaled $32 million versus $39.8 million last year, and Mission Produce repurchased $9.4 million of common stock during the period.

AVO’s Near-Term Outlook

Mission Produce reaffirmed second-half fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $84 million to $88 million. Management expects fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $52 million to $55 million, supported by later Peru avocado sales, higher blueberry activity, a full quarter of Calavo and improved avocado margin dynamics.

For the fiscal fourth quarter, industry avocado volumes are expected to rise about 10% year over year, while pricing is projected to decline about 10% from the prior-year average of $1.39 per pound. Mission Produce also raised its annualized Calavo synergy target to more than $30 million from at least $25 million, with savings expected to begin contributing in the fiscal fourth quarter and build through fiscal 2027.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted 8.2% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Mission Produce has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. It comes with little surprise Mission Produce has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.