It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Casey's General Stores (CASY Quick QuoteCASY - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Casey's due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Casey's General Stores, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

CASY Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Inside and Fuel Gains

Casey’s General Stores posted first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings of $7.37 per share, which increased 27.7% year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.60. Revenues rose 24.3% to $5,678.3 million, beating the $5,624 million consensus mark.

Higher inside and fuel gross profit supported the quarter, partly offset by increased operating expenses. Inside same-store sales rose 3.2%, while fuel same-store gallons slipped 0.3%.

CASY's Inside Sales Gain on Prepared Food Demand

Total inside sales increased 5.6% year over year to $1,777.5 million. Prepared food and dispensed beverage same-store sales advanced 4.8%, driven mainly by positive traffic, led by whole pizzas. Grocery and general merchandise same-store sales increased 2.7%, helped by non-alcoholic beverages.

Inside gross profit rose 6.3% to $749.8 million, while inside margin expanded about 30 basis points to 42.2%. Prepared food and dispensed beverage margin improved to 59.3% from 58%, reflecting favorable mix and cost-of-goods management, while grocery and general merchandise margin eased to 35.6% from 35.9%.

Casey's Fuel Profit Climbs on Margin Strength

Total fuel gallons sold increased 2.5% to 934.2 million gallons as a larger store base more than offset the modest same-store decline. Fuel gross profit climbed 19.6% to $446.9 million.

Fuel margin, excluding credit card fees, widened to 47.8 cents per gallon from 41 cents a year earlier. Management said its fuel capabilities helped the company navigate a volatile environment and produce strong results during the quarter.

CASY's Costs Rise as Store Base Expands

Operating expenses increased 8% to $754.1 million. Operating 64 more stores than a year earlier accounted for about 2% of the increase, while higher same-store credit card fees added roughly 1.5%.

Same-store employee expense contributed about 1% of the increase, primarily because of higher labor rates, while labor hours were nearly flat. Insurance accounted for another roughly 1% of the increase.

Casey's Earnings Growth Outpaces Expense Increase

Net income advanced 27.1% year over year to $273.7 million. EBITDA increased 17.1% to $485.1 million as higher inside and fuel gross profit outweighed part of the cost pressure.

Cash provided by operating activities totaled $384.1 million compared with $372.4 million a year ago. Casey’s spent $194.4 million on property and equipment and ended July with about $1.4 billion of available liquidity, including $524.1 million in cash and cash equivalents.

CASY Expands Store Base and Returns Cash

Casey’s ended the quarter with 2,959 stores, up from 2,944 at the start of the fiscal year. The company added nine newly constructed stores and 12 acquired locations while closing or divesting six stores.

The company repurchased about $45.6 million of shares during the quarter and had approximately $973 million remaining under its authorization. The board also approved a quarterly dividend of 65 cents per share, payable on Nov. 13, 2026.

Casey's Keeps Fiscal 2027 Outlook Unchanged

For fiscal 2027, Casey’s continues to expect inside same-store sales growth of 2%-5%, with inside margin above 42%. Same-store fuel gallons are projected to range from down 1% to up 1%, while operating expenses are expected to increase 5%-7%.

The company continues to target EBITDA growth of 8%-10% and plans to open at least 120 stores through acquisitions and new construction. Casey’s also expects about $800 million of capital spending and roughly $95 million of net interest expense.

CASY's Three-Year Plan Adds a Longer Growth Runway

Casey’s new three-year plan calls for at least 400 additional stores during fiscal 2027 through fiscal 2029 through a mix of new builds and acquisitions. The investor plan also targets roughly $2 billion of free cash flow over the period and continued inside-store margin expansion.

The strategy pairs unit growth with operating-efficiency initiatives intended to keep operating-expense growth below EBITDA growth. Identified workstreams include store simplification, supply-chain efficiency, kitchen optimization, centralized procurement and a scalable support model as the store network expands.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

At this time, Casey's has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Casey's has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.