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Guide to Magnificent Seven ETF investing

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Key Takeaways

  • Mag 7 stocks offer powerful AI and growth opportunities.
  • Rising AI capex is pressuring free cash flow across the group.
  • ETFs offer diversified exposure to the Mag 7 theme.

The "Magnificent Seven" typically refers to the 1960 Western film, but today's stock market investors recognize the term as the set of seven big tech stocks, namely Apple (AAPL - Free Report) , Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) , Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) , Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) , Meta Platforms META and Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) .

This group has made the S&P 500 more concentrated than ever, which means this key U.S. equity gauge's further boom or doom depends on these seven stars. At the current level, the S&P 500 ETF — SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - Free Report) — invests about 35% in Magnificent Seven stocks.

Inside the Winning Attributes of Magnificent Seven

Apple dominates over half of the U.S. smartphone market. Plus, the Services portfolio, which includes revenues from cloud services, App Store, Apple Music, AppleCare, Apple Pay, and licensing and other services, has now become the cash cow.

The company’s AI push, including its new Siri AI, could unlock another major growth avenue. Meanwhile, its still-low AI capital spending preserves free cash flow while peers face massive infrastructure costs. Apple is known for its powerful ecosystem, loyal global customer base and strong pricing power.

Microsoft dominates the PC software market with more than 70% of the market share for desktop operating systems. Microsoft stands out for its dominant position in cloud computing through Azure.

Microsoft monetizes AI through Azure, Copilot, GitHub, security, and Office, creating a powerful recurring-revenue ecosystem. Its investments in OpenAI, data centers and AI infrastructure are positives.

Alphabet stands out for its dominant search and digital advertising business. Google Cloud is gaining from AI adoption and offers an increasingly important growth engine. Gemini, TPUs, Cloud, subscriptions, and ads give Alphabet multiple ways to monetize AI across its ecosystem.

Meta benefits from a massive ecosystem across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, supporting its powerful advertising business. AI is improving ad targeting, engagement and monetization. Meta’s Muse could act as a strong future catalyst. The main risk is heavy AI capex, which could pressure margins and free cash flow.

NVIDIA dominates the AI chip market, giving it a powerful position in the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure industry. Its high-performance GPUs, networking products and software ecosystem create strong competitive advantages.

Massive AI spending by cloud providers and technology companies supports demand, while strong margins and cash generation offer financial flexibility. A $150 billion buyback authorization is another plus.

Amazon benefits from its dominant e-commerce platform and fast-growing AWS cloud business, which provides a key AI growth engine. Its advertising business adds another high-margin revenue stream. The main risk is heavy AI capex, but AWS pricing power and a large backlog strengthen Amazon’s long-term Mag 7 thesis.

Tesla’s long-term appeal extends beyond EVs, with growth opportunities in autonomous driving, robotaxis, energy storage, AI chips and robotics. Expanding AI and software capabilities could create new high-margin revenue streams, supporting Tesla’s long-term growth potential.

Mag-7 Stocks’ Heavy Capex & Free Cash Flow

The Magnificent Seven are projected to spend more than $700 billion on capex in 2026, largely on AI chips, data centers and networking. Microsoft’s projection at about $175 billion, Amazon’s at about $220 billion, Alphabet’s estimate at about $195 billion to $205 billion and Meta Platforms expecting 2026 capital expenditures between $130 billion and $145 billion point to Big Tech’s massive spending spree.

The Mag 7’s free-cash-flow advantage is, however, weakening as AI capex absorbs more operating cash. Still positive on a trailing basis, but Q2 FCF of Alphabet turned negative at $5.9 billion. Meta’s FCF has fallen dramatically as AI investment accelerates. Amazon’s FCF also turned negative. Tesla too slipped into negative territory.  Microsoft is still positive, but on a declining trend. Apple and NVIDIA are still positive.

Inside the Valuation of Magnificent Seven

Microsoft's forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 26.73X. Apple's P/E stands at 34.89X.Meta's P/E is 23.64X. Alphabet's P/E stands at 16.86X. Amazon's P/E is 19.29X. Tesla's P/E is high at 215.19X. NVIDIA's forward P/E is at 25.84X.

This shows that Tesla is the priciest stock. Alphabet is the least expensive one, followed by Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple.

Risks to “Magnificent Seven” Investing

The Magnificent Seven face growing antitrust, privacy and content-moderation risks, with stricter regulations potentially hurting their business models and revenue growth. Meanwhile, the massive spending on AI infrastructure raises concerns about an AI bubble. If AI investments fail to generate expected returns, an eventual bubble bust could trigger sharp declines across these highly valued tech stocks.

ETFs in Focus

Since some of the stocks look overvalued, some of the stocks are capex-heavy, and some are capex-light, investors may turn to the exchange-traded fund (ETF) approach, as the basket form lowers the company-specific risks.

Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS - Free Report)

It is a pure-play ETF on the "Magnificent Seven." It charges 30 bps in fees.

Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK - Free Report)

Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF tracks the CRSP US Mega Cap Growth Index. "Magnificent Seven" collectively accounts for close to 60% of the total assets. The fund charges 5 bps in fees.

Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG - Free Report)

The fund measures the cap-weighted performance of 50 of the largest companies on the S&P 500 Index. It holds 55 stocks in its basket, and the "Magnificent Seven" accounts for about a combined 50% share. The fund charges 20 bps in fees.

iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF - Free Report)

iShares S&P 100 ETF offers exposure to the 101 largest U.S. companies. "Magnificent Seven" accounts for a combined 42% share. The fund charges 20 bps in fees.

Invesco QQQ (QQQ - Free Report)

This tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 ETF puts about 35% of the assets in Mag-7 stocks. The fund charges 18 bps in fees.


 

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