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Goldman Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?
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Key Takeaways
Goldman is expected to report Q3'26 revenues of $16.87 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 11.1%.
GS' IB revenues are expected to rise 3.8% to $2.76 billion, supported by advisory and underwriting activity.
GS expects non-compensation expenses to increase by more than $500 million sequentially in Q3'26.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 13, before the opening bell.
GS delivered impressive first-half 2026 performance, driven by strong investment banking (IB) and trading activity within Global Banking & Markets (“GBM”), alongside solid revenue growth in Asset & Wealth Management (“AWM”).
Goldman has a strong history of earnings surprises. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 20.42%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let us see how GS is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $16.87 billion, calling for an 11.1% rise from the year-ago quarter.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has been revised downward to $12.90 per share. The projection suggests an increase of 5.3% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Shape Goldman’s Q3 Results
Market-Making Revenues: Client activity and market volatility remained strong in the third quarter, with trading conditions influenced by shifting expectations around artificial intelligence (AI), persistent geopolitical tensions, lingering inflation concerns and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
At the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference, Goldman CEO David Solomon indicated that trading activity in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) had softened in the third quarter, following a strong first-half performance. On the other hand, equity trading continued to perform strongly, providing a potential cushion against softer FICC activity. Therefore, Goldman's market-making revenues are likely to have witnessed a marginal rise in the quarter to be reported.
Investment Banking (IB) Fees: In the third quarter of 2026, global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity slowed considerably after a strong first half, as geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, valuation gaps and elevated borrowing costs continued to weigh on deal-making. Nevertheless, strategic buyers continued to pursue acquisitions to expand their scale and strengthen resilience amid a challenging operating environment. Meanwhile, the stronger U.S. dollar made European acquisitions more attractive to U.S. companies, while expectations of faster economic growth encouraged foreign investors to explore opportunities in the United States. These cross-border opportunities, combined with Goldman’s leading position in M&A advisory, are likely to have supported its advisory fees in the quarter to be reported.
IPO activity remained healthy in the third quarter of 2026, with proceeds reaching a five-year high, driven by blockbuster offerings in the AI and technology sectors, despite lower deal volumes year over year. Meanwhile, global equity and bond issuance moderated from first-half record levels amid geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns and shifting energy costs. Nevertheless, continued IPO activity and solid debt issuance are likely to have supported Goldman’s underwriting revenues, contributing to overall IB revenue growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IB revenues is pegged at $2.76 billion, suggesting a 3.8% rise from the year-ago quarter.
Net Interest Income (NII): The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.75-4.00%. However, the rate hike is unlikely to have affected Goldman’ NII in the third quarter.
Following strong lending activity in the first half of 2026, loan growth is likely to have moderated during the quarter under review. Per the Fed’s latest data, commercial and industrial loan demand was steady in the first two months of the quarter, while real estate and consumer lending remained healthy. This, coupled with trends in deposit and funding costs, is expected to have supported Goldman’s NII.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $3.89 billion, suggesting a 1.1% rise from the year-ago quarter.
Expenses: Goldman’s operating expenses are likely to have increased in the third quarter of 2026, driven by higher transaction-based expenses amid elevated client activity and accelerated technology investments.
Management expects non-compensation expenses to increase by more than $500 million sequentially in the third quarter of 2026.
What Our Model Unveils for Goldman Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for GS this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here, as you can see below.
GS’ Earnings ESP: Goldman has an Earnings ESP of -5.88%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
In the third quarter of 2026, Goldman’s shares lost 12.2% compared with the industry’s decline of 6.8%. Its close peers JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) also fell 5.8% and 10.5%, respectively, during the quarter.
Third-Quarter Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JPMorgan is scheduled to report its quarterly results on Oct. 13, while Morgan Stanley is set to announce its results on Oct. 14.
Let us look at the value GS offers investors at the current levels.
Goldman is trading at 12.30X forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E). Meanwhile, the industry’s forward earnings multiple sits at 12.61X. The company’s valuation looks inexpensive compared with the industry average.
Price-to-Earnings F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Likewise, GS is trading at a discount to JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. At present, JPMorgan is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 13.28X and Morgan Stanley is trading at 14.45X.
How to Play Goldman Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
Goldman continues to sharpen its focus on core businesses, particularly GBM and AWM, while reducing its reliance on balance-sheet-intensive activities. Its “One Goldman Sachs” strategy strengthens collaboration across these businesses, deepens client relationships and expands cross-selling opportunities. Together with disciplined expense management, this approach aims to diversify revenue streams and improve long-term profitability.
Expanding AWM remains a key part of this strategy. In August 2026, the company agreed to acquire NEOS Investments, broadening its options-based exchange-traded fund offerings, and LCN Capital Partners, adding specialized private real estate investment capabilities. These acquisitions are expected to expand its investment offerings, attract third-party assets and strengthen recurring fee income. Separately, in September 2026, it entered a strategic collaboration with IG Wealth Management, under which its asset-management team will manage five multi-asset portfolios for Canadian clients. The partnership is expected to extend its distribution reach and create additional opportunities for AWM growth.
The company’s liquidity position also supports shareholder returns and continued investment in core businesses. Following the Fed’s 2026 stress test, it increased the quarterly common stock dividend by 11% to $5 per share, effective in the third quarter of 2026. Operational efficiency also remains another key driver of GS’ profitability. Investments in technology, automation and AI, combined with an integrated operating model and expense discipline, are expected to improve operating leverage.
Given Goldman’s continued focus on expanding AWM, strengthening client relationships and improving operational efficiency, its long-term earnings prospects remain encouraging. However, softer FICC trading activity, a slowdown in deal-making and higher operating expenses could weigh on near-term performance. Investors may prefer to wait for third-quarter results before initiating new positions, as management’s commentary on trading activity, the IB pipeline, AWM growth and expenses could provide better visibility into its earnings outlook. However, existing shareholders may consider holding their positions, given the potential for continued business diversification and improved operating efficiency to support long-term profitability.
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Goldman Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?
Key Takeaways
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 13, before the opening bell.
GS delivered impressive first-half 2026 performance, driven by strong investment banking (IB) and trading activity within Global Banking & Markets (“GBM”), alongside solid revenue growth in Asset & Wealth Management (“AWM”).
Goldman has a strong history of earnings surprises. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 20.42%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let us see how GS is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $16.87 billion, calling for an 11.1% rise from the year-ago quarter.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has been revised downward to $12.90 per share. The projection suggests an increase of 5.3% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Shape Goldman’s Q3 Results
Market-Making Revenues: Client activity and market volatility remained strong in the third quarter, with trading conditions influenced by shifting expectations around artificial intelligence (AI), persistent geopolitical tensions, lingering inflation concerns and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
At the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference, Goldman CEO David Solomon indicated that trading activity in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) had softened in the third quarter, following a strong first-half performance. On the other hand, equity trading continued to perform strongly, providing a potential cushion against softer FICC activity. Therefore, Goldman's market-making revenues are likely to have witnessed a marginal rise in the quarter to be reported.
Investment Banking (IB) Fees: In the third quarter of 2026, global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity slowed considerably after a strong first half, as geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, valuation gaps and elevated borrowing costs continued to weigh on deal-making. Nevertheless, strategic buyers continued to pursue acquisitions to expand their scale and strengthen resilience amid a challenging operating environment. Meanwhile, the stronger U.S. dollar made European acquisitions more attractive to U.S. companies, while expectations of faster economic growth encouraged foreign investors to explore opportunities in the United States. These cross-border opportunities, combined with Goldman’s leading position in M&A advisory, are likely to have supported its advisory fees in the quarter to be reported.
IPO activity remained healthy in the third quarter of 2026, with proceeds reaching a five-year high, driven by blockbuster offerings in the AI and technology sectors, despite lower deal volumes year over year. Meanwhile, global equity and bond issuance moderated from first-half record levels amid geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns and shifting energy costs. Nevertheless, continued IPO activity and solid debt issuance are likely to have supported Goldman’s underwriting revenues, contributing to overall IB revenue growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IB revenues is pegged at $2.76 billion, suggesting a 3.8% rise from the year-ago quarter.
Net Interest Income (NII): The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.75-4.00%. However, the rate hike is unlikely to have affected Goldman’ NII in the third quarter.
Following strong lending activity in the first half of 2026, loan growth is likely to have moderated during the quarter under review. Per the Fed’s latest data, commercial and industrial loan demand was steady in the first two months of the quarter, while real estate and consumer lending remained healthy. This, coupled with trends in deposit and funding costs, is expected to have supported Goldman’s NII.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $3.89 billion, suggesting a 1.1% rise from the year-ago quarter.
Expenses: Goldman’s operating expenses are likely to have increased in the third quarter of 2026, driven by higher transaction-based expenses amid elevated client activity and accelerated technology investments.
Management expects non-compensation expenses to increase by more than $500 million sequentially in the third quarter of 2026.
What Our Model Unveils for Goldman Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for GS this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here, as you can see below.
GS’ Earnings ESP: Goldman has an Earnings ESP of -5.88%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of Goldman: GS carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
GS’ Price Performance & Valuation
In the third quarter of 2026, Goldman’s shares lost 12.2% compared with the industry’s decline of 6.8%. Its close peers JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) also fell 5.8% and 10.5%, respectively, during the quarter.
Third-Quarter Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JPMorgan is scheduled to report its quarterly results on Oct. 13, while Morgan Stanley is set to announce its results on Oct. 14.
Let us look at the value GS offers investors at the current levels.
Goldman is trading at 12.30X forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E). Meanwhile, the industry’s forward earnings multiple sits at 12.61X. The company’s valuation looks inexpensive compared with the industry average.
Price-to-Earnings F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Likewise, GS is trading at a discount to JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. At present, JPMorgan is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 13.28X and Morgan Stanley is trading at 14.45X.
How to Play Goldman Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
Goldman continues to sharpen its focus on core businesses, particularly GBM and AWM, while reducing its reliance on balance-sheet-intensive activities. Its “One Goldman Sachs” strategy strengthens collaboration across these businesses, deepens client relationships and expands cross-selling opportunities. Together with disciplined expense management, this approach aims to diversify revenue streams and improve long-term profitability.
Expanding AWM remains a key part of this strategy. In August 2026, the company agreed to acquire NEOS Investments, broadening its options-based exchange-traded fund offerings, and LCN Capital Partners, adding specialized private real estate investment capabilities. These acquisitions are expected to expand its investment offerings, attract third-party assets and strengthen recurring fee income. Separately, in September 2026, it entered a strategic collaboration with IG Wealth Management, under which its asset-management team will manage five multi-asset portfolios for Canadian clients. The partnership is expected to extend its distribution reach and create additional opportunities for AWM growth.
The company’s liquidity position also supports shareholder returns and continued investment in core businesses. Following the Fed’s 2026 stress test, it increased the quarterly common stock dividend by 11% to $5 per share, effective in the third quarter of 2026. Operational efficiency also remains another key driver of GS’ profitability. Investments in technology, automation and AI, combined with an integrated operating model and expense discipline, are expected to improve operating leverage.
Given Goldman’s continued focus on expanding AWM, strengthening client relationships and improving operational efficiency, its long-term earnings prospects remain encouraging. However, softer FICC trading activity, a slowdown in deal-making and higher operating expenses could weigh on near-term performance. Investors may prefer to wait for third-quarter results before initiating new positions, as management’s commentary on trading activity, the IB pipeline, AWM growth and expenses could provide better visibility into its earnings outlook. However, existing shareholders may consider holding their positions, given the potential for continued business diversification and improved operating efficiency to support long-term profitability.