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Lower Expenses & Higher NII to Support PNC Financial's Q3 Earnings
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Key Takeaways
PNC is set to report Q3'26 earnings on Oct. 15, with NII expected to rise 3%-3.5% sequentially.
PNC expects average loans to grow 1%-2% sequentially in Q3'26, supporting higher net interest income.
PNC expects adjusted expenses to fall 2%-3% sequentially, while fee income is projected to decline 5%-5.5%.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 15, before market open. The company’s revenues and earnings are expected to have improved on a year-over-year basis.
In the second quarter of 2026, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by higher net interest income (NII) and fee income. Solid loan growth further supported the results, while higher expenses and lower deposit balances acted as headwinds.
PNC has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.79%.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc Price and EPS Surprise
NII & Loans: In mid-September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, citing persistently elevated inflation. However, as rates remained unchanged for most of the third quarter, the hike is unlikely to have a significant impact on PNC Financial’s NII growth during the quarter.
Management expects NII to increase 3%-3.5% sequentially in the third quarter of 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII of $4.2 billion implies a sequential increase of 2.9%.
Loan growth momentum is likely to have moderated in the third quarter of 2026 following solid lending activity in the first half of the year. Per the Fed’s latest data, commercial and industrial loan growth remained strong in the third quarter of 2026, while consumer and real estate lending remained broadly stable. As such, stabilized funding costs and continued loan demand are expected to have supported PNC’s lending activity in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $564.2 billion, indicating a sequential increase of 1.6%. Meanwhile, management expects average loans to rise 1%-2% sequentially in the third quarter of 2026.
Non-Interest Revenues: In the third quarter of 2026, mortgage rates remained elevated near 7%, while affordability continued to be strained. Purchase activity and refinancing demand likely faced persistent headwinds from high borrowing costs and affordability constraints. As a result, PNC Financial’s residential and commercial mortgage revenues are likely to have faced pressure during the quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for residential and commercial mortgage revenues is pegged at $137 million, indicating a sequential decline of 4.8%.
Client activity and market volatility remained elevated in the third quarter of 2026, supported by shifting expectations surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), persistent geopolitical tensions, lingering inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy stance. Volatility across equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, fixed income and foreign exchange, is likely to have supported client activity. As a result, PNC Financial's asset management and brokerage income is likely to have improved in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $448.4 million, indicating a 1.9% rise sequentially.
Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity slowed considerably in the third quarter of 2026 following a record-setting first half, as rising interest rates and persistent inflation weighed on valuations and deal negotiations. Although strategic buyers remained active, pursuing acquisitions to enhance scale, resilience and supply-chain security, overall global M&A volume and value remained muted, with a handful of large transactions dominating the market. This subdued deal-making environment is likely to have weighed on PNC Financial’s capital markets and advisory revenues in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company's capital markets and advisory income is pegged at $467.6 million, indicating a sequential decline of 18.9%.
Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for card and cash management revenues is pegged at $764.9 million, indicating a sequential decline of nearly 1%. The consensus estimate for lending and deposit services is pegged at $338.5 million, indicating an increase of 1.8% from the previous quarter's actual.
Management expects fee income to decline 5%-5.5% sequentially in the third quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income stands at $2.34 billion, implying a sequential decline of 15.3%.
Expenses: The company's expenses remained elevated in the first half of 2026, primarily due to FirstBank integration costs and continued investments in franchise expansion, technology and digitalization. While these factors may have continued to weigh on expenses in the third quarter, savings from the 2026 Continuous Improvement Program are likely to have provided some relief during the quarter to be reported.
Management expects adjusted non-interest expenses to decline nearly 2%-3% sequentially in the third quarter of 2026.
Asset Quality: PNC Financial is likely to have maintained elevated reserves, particularly in its commercial lending portfolio, amid persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. Additionally, the Fed's stance on interest rates and the possibility of further rate hikes are expected to have prompted the company to remain cautious and set aside substantial provisions for potential credit losses in the third quarter of 2026.
Management expects net charge-offs to be around $225 million, largely unchanged from the $226 million reported in the second quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets is pegged at $2.31 billion, indicating an increase of 7.6% from the previous quarter. Also, the consensus estimate for non-performing loans is pegged at $2.23 billion, implying a sequential rise of 9.9%.
What Our Model Unveils for PNC
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for PNC Financial this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: PNC Financial has an Earnings ESP of +0.80%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
PNC Financial’s Q3 Earnings & Sales Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share has been revised downward to $4.97 over the past seven days. This implies a year-over-year rise of 14.3%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues of $6.60 billion indicates an 11.1% year-over-year increase.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 16, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB's quarterly earnings has been revised downward to $4.98 per share.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 19, 2026. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for FITB have remained unchanged at $1.09 per share over the past week.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Lower Expenses & Higher NII to Support PNC Financial's Q3 Earnings
Key Takeaways
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 15, before market open. The company’s revenues and earnings are expected to have improved on a year-over-year basis.
In the second quarter of 2026, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by higher net interest income (NII) and fee income. Solid loan growth further supported the results, while higher expenses and lower deposit balances acted as headwinds.
PNC has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.79%.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc Price and EPS Surprise
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc price-eps-surprise | The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc Quote
Factors to Impact PNC Financial’s Q3 Earnings
NII & Loans: In mid-September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, citing persistently elevated inflation. However, as rates remained unchanged for most of the third quarter, the hike is unlikely to have a significant impact on PNC Financial’s NII growth during the quarter.
Management expects NII to increase 3%-3.5% sequentially in the third quarter of 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII of $4.2 billion implies a sequential increase of 2.9%.
Loan growth momentum is likely to have moderated in the third quarter of 2026 following solid lending activity in the first half of the year. Per the Fed’s latest data, commercial and industrial loan growth remained strong in the third quarter of 2026, while consumer and real estate lending remained broadly stable. As such, stabilized funding costs and continued loan demand are expected to have supported PNC’s lending activity in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $564.2 billion, indicating a sequential increase of 1.6%. Meanwhile, management expects average loans to rise 1%-2% sequentially in the third quarter of 2026.
Non-Interest Revenues: In the third quarter of 2026, mortgage rates remained elevated near 7%, while affordability continued to be strained. Purchase activity and refinancing demand likely faced persistent headwinds from high borrowing costs and affordability constraints. As a result, PNC Financial’s residential and commercial mortgage revenues are likely to have faced pressure during the quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for residential and commercial mortgage revenues is pegged at $137 million, indicating a sequential decline of 4.8%.
Client activity and market volatility remained elevated in the third quarter of 2026, supported by shifting expectations surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), persistent geopolitical tensions, lingering inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy stance. Volatility across equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, fixed income and foreign exchange, is likely to have supported client activity. As a result, PNC Financial's asset management and brokerage income is likely to have improved in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $448.4 million, indicating a 1.9% rise sequentially.
Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity slowed considerably in the third quarter of 2026 following a record-setting first half, as rising interest rates and persistent inflation weighed on valuations and deal negotiations. Although strategic buyers remained active, pursuing acquisitions to enhance scale, resilience and supply-chain security, overall global M&A volume and value remained muted, with a handful of large transactions dominating the market. This subdued deal-making environment is likely to have weighed on PNC Financial’s capital markets and advisory revenues in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company's capital markets and advisory income is pegged at $467.6 million, indicating a sequential decline of 18.9%.
Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for card and cash management revenues is pegged at $764.9 million, indicating a sequential decline of nearly 1%. The consensus estimate for lending and deposit services is pegged at $338.5 million, indicating an increase of 1.8% from the previous quarter's actual.
Management expects fee income to decline 5%-5.5% sequentially in the third quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income stands at $2.34 billion, implying a sequential decline of 15.3%.
Expenses: The company's expenses remained elevated in the first half of 2026, primarily due to FirstBank integration costs and continued investments in franchise expansion, technology and digitalization. While these factors may have continued to weigh on expenses in the third quarter, savings from the 2026 Continuous Improvement Program are likely to have provided some relief during the quarter to be reported.
Management expects adjusted non-interest expenses to decline nearly 2%-3% sequentially in the third quarter of 2026.
Asset Quality: PNC Financial is likely to have maintained elevated reserves, particularly in its commercial lending portfolio, amid persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. Additionally, the Fed's stance on interest rates and the possibility of further rate hikes are expected to have prompted the company to remain cautious and set aside substantial provisions for potential credit losses in the third quarter of 2026.
Management expects net charge-offs to be around $225 million, largely unchanged from the $226 million reported in the second quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets is pegged at $2.31 billion, indicating an increase of 7.6% from the previous quarter. Also, the consensus estimate for non-performing loans is pegged at $2.23 billion, implying a sequential rise of 9.9%.
What Our Model Unveils for PNC
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for PNC Financial this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: PNC Financial has an Earnings ESP of +0.80%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
PNC Financial’s Q3 Earnings & Sales Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share has been revised downward to $4.97 over the past seven days. This implies a year-over-year rise of 14.3%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues of $6.60 billion indicates an 11.1% year-over-year increase.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank (MTB - Free Report) is +0.73% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 16, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB's quarterly earnings has been revised downward to $4.98 per share.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 19, 2026. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for FITB have remained unchanged at $1.09 per share over the past week.