U.S. Bancorp (USB Quick QuoteUSB - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 15, 2026, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have witnessed year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s results were supported by higher net interest income (NII) and solid fee revenue growth. However, a rise in provisions was concerning.

USB has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in the trailing four quarters, the surprise being 6.19%, on average.

U.S. Bancorp Price and EPS Surprise

U.S. Bancorp price-eps-surprise | U.S. Bancorp Quote

Factors Influencing U.S. Bancorp’s Q3 Performance

NII: In September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, citing persistently elevated inflation. As interest rates remained unchanged for most of the quarter, the recent hike is less likely to have significant impacts on USB’s NII and margin in the third quarter of 2026.

Management expects NII on a fully taxable equivalent basis to rise 4-6% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $4.48 billion, indicating a 6.2% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

Loans: Following solid lending activity in the first half of 2026, loan growth momentum likely moderated during the to-be-reported quarter. Per the Fed’s latest data, commercial and industrial loan demand remained healthy in the third quarter, while consumer and real estate lending stayed steady. As a result, USB’s lending activity is expected to have seen a decent improvement.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $636 million for average earning assets indicates a 2.9% year-over-year increase.

Non-Interest Income:  Client activity and market volatility were strong in the third quarter. Trading conditions were influenced by shifting expectations around AI, persistent geopolitical tensions, lingering inflation concerns and a hawkish stance from the Fed. Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. This is anticipated to have aided USB’s capital markets’ revenue growth in the third quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capital markets revenues is pegged at $642.2 million, indicating a rise of 47.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The third quarter was challenging for the mortgage banking business as mortgage rates hovered around 7% and affordability was low. Both origination volume and refinance activity faced persistent headwinds from inventory constraints and a higher-for-longer rate regime. As a result, USB’s mortgage banking fees are expected to have witnessed a decline in the quarter to be reported. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $166.6 million, which indicates a decline of 7.4% from the prior-year quarter's reported figure.

The consensus mark for income from card revenues is pegged at $441.2 million, indicating a slight rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust and investment management fees is pegged at $802.1 million, indicating a 9.9% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Overall, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $3.51 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 14.1%. Management expects the metric to increase 12-14% year over year. On a core basis (excluding BTIG), fee revenues are projected to grow 6-7%.

Expenses: Although the company has been implementing expense-management actions, higher costs related to compensation and employee benefits, net occupancy, and ongoing investments in technology-led initiatives are likely to have kept the expense base elevated.

Management expects total non-interest expenses to increase 8% year over year.

Asset Quality: USB is likely to have set aside a decent amount for potential loan delinquencies, given the modest improvement in the operating environment, reflecting heightened credit risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, volatile oil prices, persistent inflation and elevated interest rates.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is pegged at $1.46 billion, indicating a decline of 9.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for USB

Per our proven model, the chances of U.S. Bancorp beating estimates this time are low. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: U.S. Bancorp has an Earnings ESP of -0.08%.

Zacks Rank: USB currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of $1.32 has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 8.2% from the year-ago reported number.

The consensus estimate for third-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $8.01 billion, suggesting a rise of 9.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

Bank Stocks to Consider

Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time: 

The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank (MTB Quick QuoteMTB - Free Report) is +0.73% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 16, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB's quarterly earnings has been revised downward to $4.98 per share.

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB Quick QuoteFITB - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 19, 2026. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Quarterly earnings estimates for FITB have been unchanged at $1.09 per share over the past week.