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PBF Energy Surges 189.4% in a Year: Should Investors Buy the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
PBF Energy shares surged 189.4% in a year, outperforming industry peers and the sub-industry's 137% return.
PBF's Martinez refinery restart, stronger diesel margins and cost savings support its earnings recovery.
PBF's 2026 earnings are projected to skyrocket 698%, while its 5.69X EV/EBITDA trails the industry's 6.25X.
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF - Free Report) has delivered an impressive performance over the past year, with shares skyrocketing 189.4%. The stock comfortably outperformed Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK - Free Report) and HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO - Free Report) , which have surged 123.7% and 133.9%, respectively. PBF also surpassed the sub-industry’s 137% return during the same period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The strong rally raises a key question: does PBF still offer an attractive buying opportunity? Before concluding, let us examine the company’s operating outlook, earnings prospects and valuation.
Can Stronger Refining Margins Offset Higher Oil Prices?
Elevated crude oil prices, driven by Middle East conflicts and supply disruptions, present both challenges and opportunities for PBF. Per the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), WTI crude prices are projected to average $88.21 per barrel in 2026, up from $65.40 in 2025. Since PBF Energy purchases crude oil to manufacture gasoline, diesel and other fuels, higher oil prices increase its feedstock costs.
However, refining profitability depends primarily on crack spreads, the difference between refined-product prices and crude oil costs, along with throughput, crude sourcing and operating expenses. Rising gasoline and diesel prices can support earnings when they increase sufficiently relative to input costs. PBF identifies favorable crack spreads and crude oil differentials as important drivers of refining margins.
The EIA expects tight distillate supplies to keep diesel crack spreads elevated through 2027, supporting PBF’s earnings. Capturing that opportunity will depend on reliable refinery operations and effective cost management.
PBF restarted the fire-affected units at its Martinez refinery in May 2026, restoring production of its full product slate. West Coast throughput increased to 269,900 barrels per day in the second quarter from 203,500 a year earlier. The recovery gives PBF greater operating capacity to capture favorable regional refining margins.
This improvement is particularly relevant in California, where the company estimated gasoline imports at 250,000 barrels per day, representing nearly one-third of demand. Such dependence on imported fuel reinforces the competitive importance of PBF’s operating California refineries when international product supplies are constrained.
Cost Improvements Provide Additional Support
PBF’s Refining Business Improvement initiative offers another potential earnings catalyst. The company reported a 20% reduction in purchased natural gas on a per-barrel, price-adjusted basis compared with the 2024 baseline. The company also expects $60 million in annual procurement savings through contract renegotiations and rebidding.
Lower energy consumption and purchasing costs could improve profitability per barrel and strengthen PBF’s competitiveness across refining cycles. Meanwhile, moving the scheduled fourth-quarter turnarounds at Toledo and Chalmette into 2027 preserves operating availability during late 2026. Martinez’s hydrocracker turnaround was scheduled to finish in October, while Paulsboro’s crude-unit turnaround remained planned for late fall.
Strong Earnings Growth Expected in 2026
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBF’s 2026 earnings stands at $24.69 per share, indicating 698% whopping year-over-year growth. This projected improvement adds support to the company’s investment appeal as restored production and cost initiatives strengthen its earnings capacity.
PBF’s expected earnings growth also exceeds that of its peers. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Delek and HF Sinclair indicate surges of 135.6% and 258.7%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PBF’s Valuation Remains Attractive
Despite its substantial share-price appreciation, PBF continues to trade at a discount to the industry and its peers. The stock carries a trailing 12-month enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 5.69X, below the industry average of 6.25X.
HF Sinclair and Delek trade at trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiples of 6.67X and 6.13X, respectively. PBF’s lower multiple, combined with its projected earnings recovery, strengthens its relative valuation appeal.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Should Investors Buy PBF Stock?
PBF’s restored Martinez operations, ongoing cost improvements and exposure to potentially favorable diesel crack spreads support its earnings outlook. Although higher feedstock costs and refinery maintenance remain factors to watch, the company’s strong projected earnings growth and discounted valuation provide compelling reasons to consider the stock.
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PBF Energy Surges 189.4% in a Year: Should Investors Buy the Stock?
Key Takeaways
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF - Free Report) has delivered an impressive performance over the past year, with shares skyrocketing 189.4%. The stock comfortably outperformed Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK - Free Report) and HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO - Free Report) , which have surged 123.7% and 133.9%, respectively. PBF also surpassed the sub-industry’s 137% return during the same period.
The strong rally raises a key question: does PBF still offer an attractive buying opportunity? Before concluding, let us examine the company’s operating outlook, earnings prospects and valuation.
Can Stronger Refining Margins Offset Higher Oil Prices?
Elevated crude oil prices, driven by Middle East conflicts and supply disruptions, present both challenges and opportunities for PBF. Per the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), WTI crude prices are projected to average $88.21 per barrel in 2026, up from $65.40 in 2025. Since PBF Energy purchases crude oil to manufacture gasoline, diesel and other fuels, higher oil prices increase its feedstock costs.
However, refining profitability depends primarily on crack spreads, the difference between refined-product prices and crude oil costs, along with throughput, crude sourcing and operating expenses. Rising gasoline and diesel prices can support earnings when they increase sufficiently relative to input costs. PBF identifies favorable crack spreads and crude oil differentials as important drivers of refining margins.
The EIA expects tight distillate supplies to keep diesel crack spreads elevated through 2027, supporting PBF’s earnings. Capturing that opportunity will depend on reliable refinery operations and effective cost management.
Restored Operations Strengthen PBF’s Earnings Potential
PBF restarted the fire-affected units at its Martinez refinery in May 2026, restoring production of its full product slate. West Coast throughput increased to 269,900 barrels per day in the second quarter from 203,500 a year earlier. The recovery gives PBF greater operating capacity to capture favorable regional refining margins.
This improvement is particularly relevant in California, where the company estimated gasoline imports at 250,000 barrels per day, representing nearly one-third of demand. Such dependence on imported fuel reinforces the competitive importance of PBF’s operating California refineries when international product supplies are constrained.
Cost Improvements Provide Additional Support
PBF’s Refining Business Improvement initiative offers another potential earnings catalyst. The company reported a 20% reduction in purchased natural gas on a per-barrel, price-adjusted basis compared with the 2024 baseline. The company also expects $60 million in annual procurement savings through contract renegotiations and rebidding.
Lower energy consumption and purchasing costs could improve profitability per barrel and strengthen PBF’s competitiveness across refining cycles. Meanwhile, moving the scheduled fourth-quarter turnarounds at Toledo and Chalmette into 2027 preserves operating availability during late 2026. Martinez’s hydrocracker turnaround was scheduled to finish in October, while Paulsboro’s crude-unit turnaround remained planned for late fall.
Strong Earnings Growth Expected in 2026
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBF’s 2026 earnings stands at $24.69 per share, indicating 698% whopping year-over-year growth. This projected improvement adds support to the company’s investment appeal as restored production and cost initiatives strengthen its earnings capacity.
PBF’s expected earnings growth also exceeds that of its peers. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Delek and HF Sinclair indicate surges of 135.6% and 258.7%, respectively.
PBF’s Valuation Remains Attractive
Despite its substantial share-price appreciation, PBF continues to trade at a discount to the industry and its peers. The stock carries a trailing 12-month enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 5.69X, below the industry average of 6.25X.
HF Sinclair and Delek trade at trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiples of 6.67X and 6.13X, respectively. PBF’s lower multiple, combined with its projected earnings recovery, strengthens its relative valuation appeal.
Should Investors Buy PBF Stock?
PBF’s restored Martinez operations, ongoing cost improvements and exposure to potentially favorable diesel crack spreads support its earnings outlook. Although higher feedstock costs and refinery maintenance remain factors to watch, the company’s strong projected earnings growth and discounted valuation provide compelling reasons to consider the stock.
With these operating and valuation advantages, investors should consider buying PBF Energy, which currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.