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Progressive's Q3 Earnings Top Estimates on Higher Premiums

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Key Takeaways

  • Progressive's Q3 earnings rose 13.6% to $4.60 per share, beating estimates by 3.1% on higher premiums.
  • Net premiums written increased 4% to $22.3 billion, while the combined ratio improved 80 bps to 88.7.
  • September revenues grew 5.2% to $7.7 billion, while Personal Lines policies rose 6% to 39.2 million.

The Progressive Corporation’s (PGR - Free Report) third-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.60 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.1%. The bottom line increased 13.6% year over year.

Behind the Headlines

Net premiums written were $22.3 billion in the quarter, up 4% from $21.4 billion a year ago. 

Net premiums earned grew 5% to $21.9 billion. The reported figure met the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Net realized loss on securities was $170 million, versus a $295 million gain in the year-ago quarter.

Combined ratio improved 80 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 88.7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 89.4.

The Progressive Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Progressive Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Progressive Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Progressive Corporation Quote

September Numbers in Details

Operating revenues grew 5.2% year over year to $7.7 billion, driven by 4.9% higher net premiums earned, a 13.2% increase in net investment income, a 5% rise in fees and other revenues and 6.7% higher service revenues. 

Total expenses decreased 5.6% to $6.6 billion, largely attributable to the absence of policyholder credit expense in the current month.

September Policies in Force

Policies in force were strong in the Personal Lines segment, up 6% from 39.2 million in the year-ago month. Progressive’s Commercial Lines segment policies rose 5% year over year to 1.3 million.  

In the Personal Lines segment, Agency Auto increased 7% year over year to 11.3 million, while Direct Auto increased 8% to 16.8 million. Special Lines improved 6% to 7.4 million. 

The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, flat year over year.

Financial Update

Progressive’s book value per share was $59.51 as of Sept. 30, 2026, down 1.6% from $60.45 as of Sept. 30, 2025.

Return on equity in June 2026 was 25.7%, down from 37.1% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio deteriorated 330 bps to 19.6.

Zacks Rank

PGR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Upcoming Releases

The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 16, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $7.01, suggesting a decrease of 13.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

TRV’s earnings beat estimates in the last four quarters.

Chubb Limited (CB - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 20, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $6.42, indicating a decrease of 14.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

CB’s earnings beat estimates in the last four quarters.

W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 19, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.14, suggesting an increase of 3.6% from the year-ago quarter reported figure.

WRB’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, while missing in one.

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