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CSX Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Key Takeaways

  • CSX is set to report Q3 earnings on Oct. 21, with EPS estimated to be 53 cents, up 20.45% year over year.
  • CSX's Q3 revenues are likely to rise 10.35% to $3.96 billion, aided by coal, fuel surcharge and merchandise.
  • High labor costs and rail network disruptions may weigh on CSX's Q3 performance.

CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, after market close.

CSX has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), delivering an average beat of 3.97%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s see how things have shaped up for CSX this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced CSX’s Q3 Performance

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CSX’s third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 1.85% in the past 60 days to 53 cents per share. However, the consensus mark implies a 20.45% upside from the year-ago actual.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Rail network issues from headwinds such as locomotive or crew/labor shortages and other service disruptions pose a major challenge for CSX. Network issues or supply chain constraints are likely to have to adversely impacted service levels, in turn hurting operating efficiency or volume of shipments. High labor costs and elevated operating expenses are hurting the bottom line. Management expects sequential service improvement, but sustained volume growth could continue to test network fluidity and execution.

The coal business remains subject to secular pressures from greener alternatives, which is leading to the planned retirement of coal units. Management expects stable-to-positive conditions, yet the domestic market has declined over the last decade, and export coal remains volatile.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CSX’sthird-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $3.96 billion, indicating a 10.35% uptick year over year. The top line is likely to have been aided by strength across the majority of its segments in coal revenues, fuel surcharge and merchandise volume.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Merchandise revenues is pegged at $2.45 billion, indicating 110.8% growth from the year-ago reported figure as well as above our estimate of $2.43 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Intermodal revenues is pegged at $659 million, indicating 25% uptick from the year-ago reported figure as well as above our estimate of $640.9 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Coal revenues is pegged at $532 million, indicating 8.5% growth from the year-ago reported figure and above our estimate of $523 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Trucking revenues is pegged at $206 million, indicating a 0.5% decline from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus mark lies above our estimate of $195 million.

What Our Model Says About CSX

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CSX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CSX has an Earnings ESP of -2.23% and a Zacks Rank #3.

CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

CSX Corporation price-eps-surprise | CSX Corporation Quote

Highlights of CSX’s Q2 Earnings

CSX reported second-quarter 2026 results, with earnings per share and revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly earnings per share of 54 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents and increased 22.7% on a year-over-year basis.

Total revenues of $3.94 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.82 billion. The top line increased 10.1% year over year, driven by higher fuel surcharge revenues, volume growth and pricing across merchandise, intermodal and coal. These were partially offset by a decrease in export coal revenues, including the impact of lower benchmark rates.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ODFL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 0.63% over the past 60 days. ODFL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, with the average beat being 6.71%.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.46% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 1.82% to $1.68 per share over the past 60 days. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and met the mark on the other occasion. The average beat is 8.11%.

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