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Natera Gains 118.1% in a Year: What's Driving the Rally?
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Key Takeaways
Natera shares surged 118.1% in a year, outperforming the industry's 11.2% gain and the S&P 500's 18.1% rise.
Signatera adoption fueled 56% growth in second-quarter MRD testing volume to approximately 283,000 units.
NTRA raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $2.85-$2.91 billion, supported by growth across testing franchises.
Natera (NTRA - Free Report) has witnessed strong momentum over the past year. Shares of the company have risen 118.1%, outperforming the industry’s 11.2% growth. The S&P 500 composite has increased 18.1% during the same time frame.
With healthy fundamentals and strong growth opportunities, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company appears to be a solid wealth creator for its investors at the moment.
Headquarter at Austin, TX, Nater applies proprietary molecular and bioinformatics technology to disease management, focusing on cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing. The company operates laboratories certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) in Austin, San Carlos and Boulder. Its single reportable segment covers development and commercialization of molecular testing in oncology, women's health and organ health.
Factors Favoring NTRA’s Share Price Growth
Natera’s share price is trending upward, prompted by the increasing adoption of Signatera, which detects circulating tumor DNA for molecular residual disease (MRD). This is supported by clinical evidence, guideline inclusion, regulatory validation and commercial execution.
In the second quarter, Clinical MRD volume reached about 283,000 units, up 56% year over year, marking the largest quarterly increase to date. Growth was broad-based across tumor types, with colorectal and breast cancer remaining the largest indications, while new accounts and new patient starts were also elevated.
Investors are also encouraged by Natera’s growing reliance on multiple franchises and product cycles to drive growth, reducing its dependence on oncology alone. Total tests processed rose from 234,000 in second-quarter 2020 to 1.04 million in second-quarter 2026, while revenues increased from $86 million to $753 million over the same period. Women's health delivered high-single-digit year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2026 despite normal seasonality, aided by Fetal Focus and the enhanced Panorama launch.
Organ health also has a clearer reimbursement catalyst after the final Medicare LCD expanded Prospera surveillance to six kidney tests and 12 heart or lung tests in the first year, followed by four annual tests across all three organs in each of the next two years. These drivers broaden the volume base supporting Natera’s raised 2026 revenue outlook of $2.85-$2.91 billion.
From a solvency viewpoint, Natera exited the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaling $1.09 billion, up from $1.08 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025. Second-quarter 2026 gross margin improved to 64.5% from 63.4% in second-quarter 2025. The company continues to expect positive cash flow for 2026 despite maintaining R&D guidance of $800-$900 million and SG&A guidance of $1.13-$1.23 billion. This combination of substantial liquidity, margin expansion and positive cash generation should support continued investment in clinical trials, new products and capacity while preserving balance sheet flexibility.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors That May Offset NTRA’s Gains
Natera faces rising competition in oncology as rivals expand their MRD testing offerings. Maintaining Signatera’s edge requires continued investment in clinical evidence, test performance and commercial execution. Stronger rival data or broader reimbursement could slow market-share gains and pressure margins.
The company’s heavy investment also poses a risk to near-term profitability. Second-quarter 2026 R&D expenses rose 55.8% year over year to $228.1 million, with full-year spending projected to be in the band of $800-$900 million. Early cancer detection programs and newer products are adding costs before generating meaningful returns. Although losses narrowed, continued spending could delay operating leverage and limit earnings visibility.
A Look at NTRA’s Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 loss per share has remained unchanged at $1.10 in the past 30 days.
The company has an estimated 2027 EPS growth rate of 100.9% compared with the industry’s 15.7%.
Veracyte has an earnings yield of 4.7% against the industry’s negative 1.4% yield. Shares of the company have risen 28.2% against the industry’s 3.8% decline. VCYT’s earnings outpaced estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 41.8%.
OPKO Health, sporting a Zacks Rank of 1 at present, has an estimated 2026 earnings growth rate of 23.3% compared with the industry’s 16.6% growth. Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 95.1%. OPK shares have rallied 27.3% against the industry’s 3.8% decline over the past year.
Teleflex, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), has an estimated long-term earnings growth rate of 20.7% compared with the industry’s 14.5% growth. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 3.2%. TFX shares have gained 4% against the industry’s 3.7% decline over the past year.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Natera Gains 118.1% in a Year: What's Driving the Rally?
Key Takeaways
Natera (NTRA - Free Report) has witnessed strong momentum over the past year. Shares of the company have risen 118.1%, outperforming the industry’s 11.2% growth. The S&P 500 composite has increased 18.1% during the same time frame.
With healthy fundamentals and strong growth opportunities, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company appears to be a solid wealth creator for its investors at the moment.
Headquarter at Austin, TX, Nater applies proprietary molecular and bioinformatics technology to disease management, focusing on cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing. The company operates laboratories certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) in Austin, San Carlos and Boulder. Its single reportable segment covers development and commercialization of molecular testing in oncology, women's health and organ health.
Factors Favoring NTRA’s Share Price Growth
Natera’s share price is trending upward, prompted by the increasing adoption of Signatera, which detects circulating tumor DNA for molecular residual disease (MRD). This is supported by clinical evidence, guideline inclusion, regulatory validation and commercial execution.
In the second quarter, Clinical MRD volume reached about 283,000 units, up 56% year over year, marking the largest quarterly increase to date. Growth was broad-based across tumor types, with colorectal and breast cancer remaining the largest indications, while new accounts and new patient starts were also elevated.
Investors are also encouraged by Natera’s growing reliance on multiple franchises and product cycles to drive growth, reducing its dependence on oncology alone. Total tests processed rose from 234,000 in second-quarter 2020 to 1.04 million in second-quarter 2026, while revenues increased from $86 million to $753 million over the same period. Women's health delivered high-single-digit year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2026 despite normal seasonality, aided by Fetal Focus and the enhanced Panorama launch.
Organ health also has a clearer reimbursement catalyst after the final Medicare LCD expanded Prospera surveillance to six kidney tests and 12 heart or lung tests in the first year, followed by four annual tests across all three organs in each of the next two years. These drivers broaden the volume base supporting Natera’s raised 2026 revenue outlook of $2.85-$2.91 billion.
From a solvency viewpoint, Natera exited the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaling $1.09 billion, up from $1.08 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025. Second-quarter 2026 gross margin improved to 64.5% from 63.4% in second-quarter 2025. The company continues to expect positive cash flow for 2026 despite maintaining R&D guidance of $800-$900 million and SG&A guidance of $1.13-$1.23 billion. This combination of substantial liquidity, margin expansion and positive cash generation should support continued investment in clinical trials, new products and capacity while preserving balance sheet flexibility.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors That May Offset NTRA’s Gains
Natera faces rising competition in oncology as rivals expand their MRD testing offerings. Maintaining Signatera’s edge requires continued investment in clinical evidence, test performance and commercial execution. Stronger rival data or broader reimbursement could slow market-share gains and pressure margins.
The company’s heavy investment also poses a risk to near-term profitability. Second-quarter 2026 R&D expenses rose 55.8% year over year to $228.1 million, with full-year spending projected to be in the band of $800-$900 million. Early cancer detection programs and newer products are adding costs before generating meaningful returns. Although losses narrowed, continued spending could delay operating leverage and limit earnings visibility.
A Look at NTRA’s Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 loss per share has remained unchanged at $1.10 in the past 30 days.
The company has an estimated 2027 EPS growth rate of 100.9% compared with the industry’s 15.7%.
Stocks to Consider
Some better-ranked stocks in the broader medical space are Veracyte (VCYT - Free Report) , OPKO Health (OPK - Free Report) and Teleflex (TFX - Free Report) .
Veracyte has an earnings yield of 4.7% against the industry’s negative 1.4% yield. Shares of the company have risen 28.2% against the industry’s 3.8% decline. VCYT’s earnings outpaced estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 41.8%.
VCYT sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
OPKO Health, sporting a Zacks Rank of 1 at present, has an estimated 2026 earnings growth rate of 23.3% compared with the industry’s 16.6% growth. Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 95.1%. OPK shares have rallied 27.3% against the industry’s 3.8% decline over the past year.
Teleflex, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), has an estimated long-term earnings growth rate of 20.7% compared with the industry’s 14.5% growth. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 3.2%. TFX shares have gained 4% against the industry’s 3.7% decline over the past year.