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American Express Company (AXP - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 23, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $4.47 per share, and the same for revenues is pinned at $20.13 billion.
The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed two downward revisions over the past seven days against no upward movements. The bottom-line prediction indicates a year-over-year increase of 8%. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 9.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Express’ revenues is pegged at $79.47 billion, implying a rise of 10% year over year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for full-year EPS is pegged at $17.65, implying growth of 14.8% on a year-over-year basis.
AXP beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 3.3%.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a likely earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
AXP has an Earnings ESP of -0.17% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
American Express is expected to see a rise in network volumes during the third quarter, likely attributable to the resilient consumer spending of its premium customer base, which is less impacted by economic volatility. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter total network volumes indicates 8.6% year-over-year growth from $479.20 billion.
Discount revenues, a key source of AXP’s top line, are expected to have benefited from rising network volumes. The consensus mark for third-quarter Discount revenues indicates 8% year-over-year growth. Billed businesses in U.S. Consumer Services and Commercial Services are expected to witness growth of 9.6% and 3.5% year over year, respectively.
Cards-in-force are expected to increase in the quarter on the back of expanding product offerings and stronger market penetration. The consensus projection for third-quarter total cards-in-force indicates 3.8% year-over-year growth. The estimate for the Average fee per card also implies a 12.3% year-over-year increase.
AXP’s interest income, another major revenue contributor, is expected to rise on higher loan receivables. The estimate for net interest income implies an upside of 11% from the year-ago reported figure.
The above factors are expected to support year-over-year growth in the quarter to be reported. However, higher customer engagement and operating costs could limit the upside. Third-quarter client engagement costs are expected to have increased due to expanding Card Member spending and higher usage of travel and lifestyle-related benefits.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax income from Commercial Services indicates a 12.8% decline, while pre-tax income from U.S. Consumer Services indicates a 9% year-over-year decrease.
AXP’s Price Performance & Valuation
AXP stock has declined 9.5% over the past year, outperforming the industry’s fall of 27.2%. During this time, Visa Inc. (V - Free Report) has gained 16.9%, and Mastercard Incorporated (MA - Free Report) has risen 9.8%. The S&P 500 Index has climbed 16.7% during the same period.
Price Performance – AXP, V, MA, Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Now, let’s look at the value American Express offers investors at current levels.
Currently, AXP is trading at 15.93X forward 12-month earnings, above the industry’s average of 14.61X, marking it overvalued. However, it is much cheaper compared to its peers like Visa and Mastercard, which are valued at 22.90X and 25.44X F12M P/E, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play American Express Stock Now?
AXP presents a balanced investment case, supported by resilient spending among affluent consumers, expanding card adoption and rising interest income. Its integrated payments model, strong brand recognition and growing appeal among younger consumers strengthen its competitive position. Premium offerings, travel-related benefits and disciplined capital management further support long-term growth prospects.
However, rising customer engagement expenses, elevated credit provisions and increasing debt levels remain concerns. Higher operating costs could constrain profitability despite improving business volumes. Moreover, AXP's premium valuation relative to the industry may limit near-term upside, particularly amid prevailing economic uncertainties.
Although the stock has demonstrated relative resilience against its industry, these challenges warrant a cautious approach. Existing investors may consider retaining their positions, while prospective investors could await more attractive entry points or clearer signs of margin improvement and sustainable earnings growth.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Will Rising Expenses Affect American Express' Q3 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
American Express Company (AXP - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 23, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $4.47 per share, and the same for revenues is pinned at $20.13 billion.
The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed two downward revisions over the past seven days against no upward movements. The bottom-line prediction indicates a year-over-year increase of 8%. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 9.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Express’ revenues is pegged at $79.47 billion, implying a rise of 10% year over year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for full-year EPS is pegged at $17.65, implying growth of 14.8% on a year-over-year basis.
AXP beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 3.3%.
American Express Company Price and EPS Surprise
American Express Company price-eps-surprise | American Express Company Quote
Q3 Earnings Whispers for American Express
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a likely earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
AXP has an Earnings ESP of -0.17% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What Is Shaping AXP’s Q3 Results?
American Express is expected to see a rise in network volumes during the third quarter, likely attributable to the resilient consumer spending of its premium customer base, which is less impacted by economic volatility. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter total network volumes indicates 8.6% year-over-year growth from $479.20 billion.
Discount revenues, a key source of AXP’s top line, are expected to have benefited from rising network volumes. The consensus mark for third-quarter Discount revenues indicates 8% year-over-year growth. Billed businesses in U.S. Consumer Services and Commercial Services are expected to witness growth of 9.6% and 3.5% year over year, respectively.
Cards-in-force are expected to increase in the quarter on the back of expanding product offerings and stronger market penetration. The consensus projection for third-quarter total cards-in-force indicates 3.8% year-over-year growth. The estimate for the Average fee per card also implies a 12.3% year-over-year increase.
AXP’s interest income, another major revenue contributor, is expected to rise on higher loan receivables. The estimate for net interest income implies an upside of 11% from the year-ago reported figure.
The above factors are expected to support year-over-year growth in the quarter to be reported. However, higher customer engagement and operating costs could limit the upside. Third-quarter client engagement costs are expected to have increased due to expanding Card Member spending and higher usage of travel and lifestyle-related benefits.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax income from Commercial Services indicates a 12.8% decline, while pre-tax income from U.S. Consumer Services indicates a 9% year-over-year decrease.
AXP’s Price Performance & Valuation
AXP stock has declined 9.5% over the past year, outperforming the industry’s fall of 27.2%. During this time, Visa Inc. (V - Free Report) has gained 16.9%, and Mastercard Incorporated (MA - Free Report) has risen 9.8%. The S&P 500 Index has climbed 16.7% during the same period.
Price Performance – AXP, V, MA, Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Now, let’s look at the value American Express offers investors at current levels.
Currently, AXP is trading at 15.93X forward 12-month earnings, above the industry’s average of 14.61X, marking it overvalued. However, it is much cheaper compared to its peers like Visa and Mastercard, which are valued at 22.90X and 25.44X F12M P/E, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play American Express Stock Now?
AXP presents a balanced investment case, supported by resilient spending among affluent consumers, expanding card adoption and rising interest income. Its integrated payments model, strong brand recognition and growing appeal among younger consumers strengthen its competitive position. Premium offerings, travel-related benefits and disciplined capital management further support long-term growth prospects.
However, rising customer engagement expenses, elevated credit provisions and increasing debt levels remain concerns. Higher operating costs could constrain profitability despite improving business volumes. Moreover, AXP's premium valuation relative to the industry may limit near-term upside, particularly amid prevailing economic uncertainties.
Although the stock has demonstrated relative resilience against its industry, these challenges warrant a cautious approach. Existing investors may consider retaining their positions, while prospective investors could await more attractive entry points or clearer signs of margin improvement and sustainable earnings growth.