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Beat the Market the Zacks Way: Valero Energy, Hagerty, Palantir in Focus
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Key Takeaways
Valero Energy gained 29.7% after its Zacks Rank upgrade, while Paylocity returned 14.2%.
Hagerty rose 20% and Talos Energy advanced 14% following Zacks Recommendation upgrades.
Palantir Technologies surged 40.5% over 12 weeks, while Shopify gained 37.2% in the same period.
The U.S. economy showed mixed signals last week as Wall Street struggled with rising inflation, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.1%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.9%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.29%, suggesting that investors favored traditional blue-chip stocks over technology shares. The sharp tech sell-off reflects investor concerns about high AI valuations, rising borrowing costs and the sustainability of heavy AI investments.
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, while annual headline and core inflation reached 3.7% and 2.6%, respectively. Producer prices increased 1.3%, pointing to persistent cost pressures. Rising oil prices have sent Brent crude prices above $106 per barrel, adding to inflation concerns amid escalating Middle East tensions. Initial jobless claims remained low at 199,000, suggesting the labor market is still holding up. Higher energy prices and persistent inflation could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, increasing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favored relatively quick policy tightening, while other officials urged caution. The New York Fed’s services index fell sharply to -20.7, signaling weakness in regional business activity. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.8% in September and 6.3% year over year, showing that consumer spending remained resilient. For investors, the key concern is whether the economy can maintain growth without triggering another inflation wave. Strong retail sales are encouraging, but rising living costs and pressure on businesses could weigh on future growth.
Regardless of market conditions, we, here at Zacks, provide investors with unbiased guidance on how to beat the market.
As usual, Zacks Research guided investors over the past three months with its time-tested methodologies. Given the prevailing market uncertainty, you may want to look at our feats to prepare better for your next action.
Here are some of our key achievements:
Valero Energy and Paylocity Following Zacks Rank Upgrade
Shares of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) have gained 29.7% (versus the S&P 500’s 1.9% decrease) since it was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on August 14.
Another stock, Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY - Free Report) , which was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) on August 11, has returned 14.2% (versus the S&P 500’s 1.3% decline) since then.
Zacks Rank, our short-term rating system, has earnings estimate revisions at its core. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
A portfolio of Zacks # 1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks has outperformed the S&P 500 index by 3.9 percentage points this year. Through October 5th this year, the Zacks # 1 Rank portfolio returned 16.9%, which compares to a 13% gain for the S&P 500 index and an 8.1% gain for the equal-weight version of the index in the same time period.
Since its inception in 1988, this portfolio of Zacks # 1 Rank stocks has outperformed the market by 12.2 percentage points. The average annual return for this portfolio of Zacks # 1 Rank stocks since inception in 1988 was 23.8% through October 5th, which compares to an 11.6% gain for the S&P 500 index and an 11.2% gain for the equal-weight version of the index.
Zacks Recommendation Upgrades Hagerty and Talos Energy
Shares of Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY - Free Report) and Talos Energy Inc. (TALO - Free Report) have advanced 20% (versus the S&P 500’s 1.2% decrease) and 14% (versus the S&P 500’s 1.3% decrease) since their Zacks Recommendation was upgraded to Outperform on August 13 and August 11, respectively.
While the Zacks Rank is our short-term rating system that is most effective over the one- to three-month holding horizon, the Zacks Recommendation aims to predict performance over the next 6 to 12 months.
Through October 5th, 2026, the Zacks Outperform-rated stocks produced +14.2% return, which compares to +13% return for the S&P 500 index.
Zacks Focus List Stocks Palantir Technologies, Shopify Shoot Up
Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Focus List, have gained 40.5% over the past 12 weeks. The stock was added to the FocusList on March 26, 2024. Another Focus List holding, Shopify Inc. (SHOP - Free Report) , which was added to the portfolio on September 6, 2022, has returned 37.2% over the past 12 weeks. The S&P 500 has advanced 2.7% over this period.
The 50-stock Focus List portfolio returned +13.78% in the year-to-date period (through September 30th, 2026) vs. +12.75% for the S&P 500 index and +10.03% for the equal-weight version of the index.
The portfolio returned +22.1% in 2025 vs. +17.9% for the S&P 500 index and +11.4% for the equal-weight version of the index.
The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned +18.41% in 2024 vs. +25.04% for the S&P 500 index and +13% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. The portfolio returned +29.54% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index and +13.61% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. In 2022, the portfolio returned -15.2% vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.
Through September 30th, 2026, the portfolio’s rolling returns on a one-year, three-year, five-year, ten-year, and since 2004 have been +17.49% (vs. +15.74% for the S&P 500 index), +24.4% (vs. +22.9%), +13.5% (vs. +13.8%), +16.4% (vs. +15.3%) and +12.4% vs. (+10.9%), respectively.
Unlock all of our powerful research, tools and analysis, including the Focus List, Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research Reports, Zacks Earnings ESP Filter, Premium Screener and more, as part of Zacks Premium. Gain full access now >>
Zacks ECAP Stocks Thermo Fisher Scientific and FactSet Research Systems Surge
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO - Free Report) , a component of our Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), has jumped 29.6% over the past 12 weeks. FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS - Free Report) followed Thermo Fisher Scientific with 16.9% returns.
The Zacks Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), which consists of 30 concentrated, ultra-defensive, long-term Buy-and-Hold stocks, returned -4.7% in 2026 (through September 30th, 2026) vs. +12.75% for the S&P 500 index.
For 2025, the portfolio returned -1.67% vs. a +17.9% gain for the S&P 500 index. For the year 2024, the portfolio returned +16.26% vs. +24.89% for the S&P 500 index (SPY ETF). In 2023, the portfolio returned +12.17% vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index. The portfolio returned -4.7% in 2022 vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.
The ECAP and many other model portfolios are available as part of Zacks Advisor Tools, a cloud-based solution to access Zacks award-winning stock, mutual fund and ETF research. Click here to schedule a demo.
Zacks ECDP Stocks Amgen and Coca-Cola Outperform Peers
Amgen Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) , which is part of our Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP), has returned 18.1% over the past 12 weeks. Another ECDP stock, The Coca-Cola Company (KO - Free Report) , has climbed 15.1% over the same time frame. Of course, the inclination of investors toward quality dividend stocks to secure an income stream amid heightened market volatility contributed to this performance.
With an extremely low beta and a history of minimum earnings variability over the last 20+ years, this 25-stock portfolio helps to significantly mitigate risk.
The Zacks Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) returned +2.01% in the year-to-date period (through September 30th) vs. +12.75% for the S&P 500 index.
The portfolio returned -0.6% in 2025 vs. a +6.8% gain for the Dividend Aristocrats ETF. For the full year 2024, the portfolio returned +6.95% vs. +24.89% for the S&P 500 index and +6.72% for NOBL. The portfolio returned -0.9% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index and +8.11% for NOBL. The portfolio returned -2.3% in 2022 vs. -17.96% for the S&P 500 index and -8.34% for NOBL.
Zacks Top 10 Stock McKesson Delivers Solid Returns
McKesson Corporation (MCK - Free Report) , from the Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2026, has jumped 22% since the list was released on January 5, 2026, compared with the S&P 500 index’s 11.7% increase during this period.
The Top 10 portfolio returned +8.34% in the year-to-date 2026 period (through September 30th) vs. +12.75% for the S&P 500 index and +10.03% for the equal-weight version of the index.
The Top 10 portfolio returned +22.6% in 2025 vs. +17.9% for the S&P 500 index and +11.4% for the equal-weight version of the index.
The Top 10 portfolio returned +62.98% in 2024, vs. +25.04% for the S&P 500 index and +13% for the equal-weight version of the index. The portfolio returned +25.15% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index.
Through the end of September 2026, the Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +2,706.5% since 2012 vs. +645.9% for the S&P 500 index and +453.8% for the equal-weight version of the index. The portfolio has produced an average annual return of +25.1% in the period 2012 through September 30th, 2026, vs. +13.5% for the S&P 500 index and +10.8% for the equal-weight version of the index.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Beat the Market the Zacks Way: Valero Energy, Hagerty, Palantir in Focus
Key Takeaways
The U.S. economy showed mixed signals last week as Wall Street struggled with rising inflation, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.1%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.9%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.29%, suggesting that investors favored traditional blue-chip stocks over technology shares. The sharp tech sell-off reflects investor concerns about high AI valuations, rising borrowing costs and the sustainability of heavy AI investments.
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, while annual headline and core inflation reached 3.7% and 2.6%, respectively. Producer prices increased 1.3%, pointing to persistent cost pressures. Rising oil prices have sent Brent crude prices above $106 per barrel, adding to inflation concerns amid escalating Middle East tensions. Initial jobless claims remained low at 199,000, suggesting the labor market is still holding up. Higher energy prices and persistent inflation could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, increasing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favored relatively quick policy tightening, while other officials urged caution. The New York Fed’s services index fell sharply to -20.7, signaling weakness in regional business activity. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.8% in September and 6.3% year over year, showing that consumer spending remained resilient. For investors, the key concern is whether the economy can maintain growth without triggering another inflation wave. Strong retail sales are encouraging, but rising living costs and pressure on businesses could weigh on future growth.
Regardless of market conditions, we, here at Zacks, provide investors with unbiased guidance on how to beat the market.
As usual, Zacks Research guided investors over the past three months with its time-tested methodologies. Given the prevailing market uncertainty, you may want to look at our feats to prepare better for your next action.
Here are some of our key achievements:
Valero Energy and Paylocity Following Zacks Rank Upgrade
Shares of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) have gained 29.7% (versus the S&P 500’s 1.9% decrease) since it was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on August 14.
Another stock, Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY - Free Report) , which was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) on August 11, has returned 14.2% (versus the S&P 500’s 1.3% decline) since then.
Zacks Rank, our short-term rating system, has earnings estimate revisions at its core. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
A portfolio of Zacks # 1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks has outperformed the S&P 500 index by 3.9 percentage points this year. Through October 5th this year, the Zacks # 1 Rank portfolio returned 16.9%, which compares to a 13% gain for the S&P 500 index and an 8.1% gain for the equal-weight version of the index in the same time period.
Since its inception in 1988, this portfolio of Zacks # 1 Rank stocks has outperformed the market by 12.2 percentage points. The average annual return for this portfolio of Zacks # 1 Rank stocks since inception in 1988 was 23.8% through October 5th, which compares to an 11.6% gain for the S&P 500 index and an 11.2% gain for the equal-weight version of the index.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here >>>
Check Valero Energy’s historical EPS and Sales here>>>
Check Paylocity’s historical EPS and Sales here>>>
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Recommendation Upgrades Hagerty and Talos Energy
Shares of Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY - Free Report) and Talos Energy Inc. (TALO - Free Report) have advanced 20% (versus the S&P 500’s 1.2% decrease) and 14% (versus the S&P 500’s 1.3% decrease) since their Zacks Recommendation was upgraded to Outperform on August 13 and August 11, respectively.
While the Zacks Rank is our short-term rating system that is most effective over the one- to three-month holding horizon, the Zacks Recommendation aims to predict performance over the next 6 to 12 months.
Through October 5th, 2026, the Zacks Outperform-rated stocks produced +14.2% return, which compares to +13% return for the S&P 500 index.
Zacks Focus List Stocks Palantir Technologies, Shopify Shoot Up
Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Focus List, have gained 40.5% over the past 12 weeks. The stock was added to the FocusList on March 26, 2024. Another Focus List holding, Shopify Inc. (SHOP - Free Report) , which was added to the portfolio on September 6, 2022, has returned 37.2% over the past 12 weeks. The S&P 500 has advanced 2.7% over this period.
The 50-stock Focus List portfolio returned +13.78% in the year-to-date period (through September 30th, 2026) vs. +12.75% for the S&P 500 index and +10.03% for the equal-weight version of the index.
The portfolio returned +22.1% in 2025 vs. +17.9% for the S&P 500 index and +11.4% for the equal-weight version of the index.
The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned +18.41% in 2024 vs. +25.04% for the S&P 500 index and +13% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. The portfolio returned +29.54% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index and +13.61% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. In 2022, the portfolio returned -15.2% vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.
Through September 30th, 2026, the portfolio’s rolling returns on a one-year, three-year, five-year, ten-year, and since 2004 have been +17.49% (vs. +15.74% for the S&P 500 index), +24.4% (vs. +22.9%), +13.5% (vs. +13.8%), +16.4% (vs. +15.3%) and +12.4% vs. (+10.9%), respectively.
Unlock all of our powerful research, tools and analysis, including the Focus List, Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research Reports, Zacks Earnings ESP Filter, Premium Screener and more, as part of Zacks Premium. Gain full access now >>
Zacks ECAP Stocks Thermo Fisher Scientific and FactSet Research Systems Surge
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO - Free Report) , a component of our Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), has jumped 29.6% over the past 12 weeks. FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS - Free Report) followed Thermo Fisher Scientific with 16.9% returns.
The Zacks Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), which consists of 30 concentrated, ultra-defensive, long-term Buy-and-Hold stocks, returned -4.7% in 2026 (through September 30th, 2026) vs. +12.75% for the S&P 500 index.
For 2025, the portfolio returned -1.67% vs. a +17.9% gain for the S&P 500 index. For the year 2024, the portfolio returned +16.26% vs. +24.89% for the S&P 500 index (SPY ETF). In 2023, the portfolio returned +12.17% vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index. The portfolio returned -4.7% in 2022 vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.
The ECAP and many other model portfolios are available as part of Zacks Advisor Tools, a cloud-based solution to access Zacks award-winning stock, mutual fund and ETF research. Click here to schedule a demo.
Zacks ECDP Stocks Amgen and Coca-Cola Outperform Peers
Amgen Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) , which is part of our Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP), has returned 18.1% over the past 12 weeks. Another ECDP stock, The Coca-Cola Company (KO - Free Report) , has climbed 15.1% over the same time frame. Of course, the inclination of investors toward quality dividend stocks to secure an income stream amid heightened market volatility contributed to this performance.
Check Amgen‘s dividend history here>>>
Check Coca-Cola's dividend history here>>>
With an extremely low beta and a history of minimum earnings variability over the last 20+ years, this 25-stock portfolio helps to significantly mitigate risk.
The Zacks Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) returned +2.01% in the year-to-date period (through September 30th) vs. +12.75% for the S&P 500 index.
The portfolio returned -0.6% in 2025 vs. a +6.8% gain for the Dividend Aristocrats ETF. For the full year 2024, the portfolio returned +6.95% vs. +24.89% for the S&P 500 index and +6.72% for NOBL. The portfolio returned -0.9% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index and +8.11% for NOBL. The portfolio returned -2.3% in 2022 vs. -17.96% for the S&P 500 index and -8.34% for NOBL.
Click here to access this portfolio on Zacks Advisor Tools.
Zacks Top 10 Stock McKesson Delivers Solid Returns
McKesson Corporation (MCK - Free Report) , from the Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2026, has jumped 22% since the list was released on January 5, 2026, compared with the S&P 500 index’s 11.7% increase during this period.
The Top 10 portfolio returned +8.34% in the year-to-date 2026 period (through September 30th) vs. +12.75% for the S&P 500 index and +10.03% for the equal-weight version of the index.
The Top 10 portfolio returned +22.6% in 2025 vs. +17.9% for the S&P 500 index and +11.4% for the equal-weight version of the index.
The Top 10 portfolio returned +62.98% in 2024, vs. +25.04% for the S&P 500 index and +13% for the equal-weight version of the index. The portfolio returned +25.15% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index.
Through the end of September 2026, the Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +2,706.5% since 2012 vs. +645.9% for the S&P 500 index and +453.8% for the equal-weight version of the index. The portfolio has produced an average annual return of +25.1% in the period 2012 through September 30th, 2026, vs. +13.5% for the S&P 500 index and +10.8% for the equal-weight version of the index.