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In the last reported quarter, earnings per share (EPS) were $2.48, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.38 by 4.2%. Earnings declined 18.2% from $3.03 in the prior-year quarter. Total revenues (Homebuilding & Financial Services) of $3.983 billion edged past the consensus mark of $3.980 billion by 0.1% but fell 9.6% year over year.
PulteGroup’s earnings topped the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average surprise of 2.7%.
Trend in PHM Stock’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PHM’s third-quarter EPS has decreased to $2.62 from $2.63 over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates an 11.5% decrease from the year-ago EPS of $2.96.
The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $4.13 billion, implying a 6.2% year-over-year decline.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped PulteGroup’s Q3 Earnings
Topline: PulteGroup's third-quarter 2026 revenues are likely to have been weighed down by persistent affordability challenges, mortgage-rate volatility and cautious homebuyer sentiment. Elevated home prices and borrowing costs have continued to constrain purchasing power, particularly among first-time buyers. Intense competition across the housing market likely compelled the company to offer pricing incentives and mortgage-rate buydowns to stimulate demand, putting pressure on average selling prices (ASPs).
Furthermore, softer housing demand in Western markets, including California and the Pacific Northwest, likely constrained sales momentum, while uneven demand conditions across regions may have affected the mix of home closings. The company's ongoing transition toward a higher build-to-order mix and a disciplined approach to speculative inventory could also have limited near-term deliveries, as build-to-order homes generally require more time to complete.
Although expanding community count and relatively resilient demand in Florida, the Midwest and select Southeast markets likely provided some support, these positives may not have fully offset the broader housing market challenges. Our model predicts home closings to decline 2.9% year over year to 7,308 units, while ASP is expected to decrease 2.4% to $550,426, weighing on third-quarter home sale revenues.
Management guided for 7,000-7,400 home closings, with ASPs of $550,000-$560,000. Community count is expected to increase 3-5% year over year.
Margins: Margins are likely to have remained under pressure amid elevated incentives, higher land costs and competitive pricing. Management expects third-quarter home sale gross margin of 24.5-25%.
Our model projects home sale gross margin of 24.6%, down from 26.2% in the year-ago period. SG&A expenses, as a percentage of home sale revenues, are expected to be 8.9%, down 50 basis points year over year.
Lower construction costs and disciplined inventory management are likely to have provided some relief.
Orders & Backlogs: Our model expects net new orders to increase 7% year over year to 7,102 units. Total backlog is projected to rise 8.8% to 10,760 units, while backlog value is expected to increase 8% to $6.73 billion.
What Our Model Unveils for PHM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PulteGroup this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
PHM’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.51%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of PHM: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Here are other companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Argan, Inc. (AGX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Argan’s earnings beat estimates in all of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 44.2%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 53.9% year over year.
United Rentals (URI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.17% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
United Rentals’ earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 1%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter are expected to increase 18.2% year over year.
Quanta Services (PWR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.66% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Quanta Services’ earnings beat estimates in all of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 17%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 50.5% year over year.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
PulteGroup Q3 Earnings Preview: Can Closings and Margins Hold Up?
Key Takeaways
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM - Free Report) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 22, before the opening bell.
In the last reported quarter, earnings per share (EPS) were $2.48, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.38 by 4.2%. Earnings declined 18.2% from $3.03 in the prior-year quarter. Total revenues (Homebuilding & Financial Services) of $3.983 billion edged past the consensus mark of $3.980 billion by 0.1% but fell 9.6% year over year.
PulteGroup’s earnings topped the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average surprise of 2.7%.
Trend in PHM Stock’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PHM’s third-quarter EPS has decreased to $2.62 from $2.63 over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates an 11.5% decrease from the year-ago EPS of $2.96.
The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $4.13 billion, implying a 6.2% year-over-year decline.
PulteGroup, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
PulteGroup, Inc. price-eps-surprise | PulteGroup, Inc. Quote
Factors Likely to Have Shaped PulteGroup’s Q3 Earnings
Topline: PulteGroup's third-quarter 2026 revenues are likely to have been weighed down by persistent affordability challenges, mortgage-rate volatility and cautious homebuyer sentiment. Elevated home prices and borrowing costs have continued to constrain purchasing power, particularly among first-time buyers. Intense competition across the housing market likely compelled the company to offer pricing incentives and mortgage-rate buydowns to stimulate demand, putting pressure on average selling prices (ASPs).
Furthermore, softer housing demand in Western markets, including California and the Pacific Northwest, likely constrained sales momentum, while uneven demand conditions across regions may have affected the mix of home closings. The company's ongoing transition toward a higher build-to-order mix and a disciplined approach to speculative inventory could also have limited near-term deliveries, as build-to-order homes generally require more time to complete.
Although expanding community count and relatively resilient demand in Florida, the Midwest and select Southeast markets likely provided some support, these positives may not have fully offset the broader housing market challenges. Our model predicts home closings to decline 2.9% year over year to 7,308 units, while ASP is expected to decrease 2.4% to $550,426, weighing on third-quarter home sale revenues.
Management guided for 7,000-7,400 home closings, with ASPs of $550,000-$560,000. Community count is expected to increase 3-5% year over year.
Margins: Margins are likely to have remained under pressure amid elevated incentives, higher land costs and competitive pricing. Management expects third-quarter home sale gross margin of 24.5-25%.
Our model projects home sale gross margin of 24.6%, down from 26.2% in the year-ago period. SG&A expenses, as a percentage of home sale revenues, are expected to be 8.9%, down 50 basis points year over year.
Lower construction costs and disciplined inventory management are likely to have provided some relief.
Orders & Backlogs: Our model expects net new orders to increase 7% year over year to 7,102 units. Total backlog is projected to rise 8.8% to 10,760 units, while backlog value is expected to increase 8% to $6.73 billion.
What Our Model Unveils for PHM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PulteGroup this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
PHM’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.51%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of PHM: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are other companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Argan, Inc. (AGX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Argan’s earnings beat estimates in all of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 44.2%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 53.9% year over year.
United Rentals (URI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.17% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
United Rentals’ earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 1%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter are expected to increase 18.2% year over year.
Quanta Services (PWR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.66% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Quanta Services’ earnings beat estimates in all of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 17%. The company’s earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 50.5% year over year.