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Invesco Q3 Earnings Coming Up: Will AUM Growth Drive Results Higher?

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Key Takeaways

  • Invesco's Q3 earnings are projected to rise 21.3% y/y, with revenues expected to grow 17.3%.
  • IVZ''s AUM grew 2.7% sequentially to $2.54 trillion, potentially boosting investment management fees.
  • Higher compensation costs and $15 million in Alpha implementation expenses may weigh on results.

Invesco (IVZ - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 27, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have witnessed a rise on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, IVZ’s adjusted earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The results primarily benefited from an increase in adjusted revenues and growth in assets under management (AUM) balance. Record net long-term inflows also supported results. However, an increase in adjusted expenses was a headwind.

Invesco has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.5%.

Invesco Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Invesco Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Invesco Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Invesco Ltd. Quote

Invesco’s Key Q3 Estimates & Factors to Note

Per the monthly metrics data published by Invesco, its preliminary total AUM as of Sept. 30, 2026, was $2.54 trillion, up 2.7% from the previous quarter’s end. During the third quarter, equity markets generally benefited from resilient corporate earnings and sustained investor interest in growth-oriented sectors. These trends, along with demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), index-based strategies and fixed-income products, are likely to have supported Invesco’s asset base. Given that investment management fees are largely tied to average AUM, the higher asset levels are expected to have positively impacted fee income in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment management fees is pegged at $1.55 billion, indicating a rise of 5.8% from the previous quarter’s reported figure.

The growing adoption of ETFs and other investment solutions, along with increased market activity, is likely to have supported Invesco’s service and distribution revenues. However, the continued shift toward lower-fee passive investment products might have exerted some pressure on fee realization. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for service and distribution fees of $337 million indicates an 8.7% increase from the previous quarter’s reported number.

Further, improved market conditions and higher investment-related activity are likely to have supported other revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $57 million, suggesting a 14% sequential rise.

Performance fees are likely to have benefited from favorable investment performance across certain actively managed and alternative investment strategies. However, these fees remain inherently volatile and depend on the timing of performance recognition and the achievement of contractual benchmarks. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter performance fees of $7.15 million indicates a 93.2% rise from the previous quarter’s actual.

On the expense front, Invesco’s ongoing cost-saving initiatives, operational streamlining and technology investments are expected to have supported efficiency. However, higher compensation-related expenses, including performance-linked incentives amid improved market conditions, along with increased marketing and distribution costs to support product growth, are likely to have exerted upward pressure on overall expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.

Management expects one-time Alpha implementation costs of approximately $15 million in the third quarter of 2026.

What Our Model Predicts for IVZ

According to our proven model, the chances of Invesco beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Invesco is -0.19%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Invesco’s Q3 Earnings & Sales Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Invesco’s earnings of 74 cents per share has been revised lower over the past seven days. Nevertheless, the figure indicates a rise of 21.3% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. 

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $1.39 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 17.3%.

Finance Stocks Worth Considering

Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

Associated BancCorp (ASB - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 22. The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.71% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Quarterly earnings estimates for ASB have been unchanged at 76 cents per share over the past week.

The Earnings ESP for Ameriprise Financial (AMP - Free Report) is +0.35%, and it carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMP’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $11.60 per share.

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