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Boeing Stock Before Q3 Earnings Release: To Buy or Not to Buy?
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Key Takeaways
Boeing is expected to report a Q3 loss of 21 cents per share and 5.4% revenue growth to $24.53 billion.
Rising deliveries and services demand could boost results, but 787 engine delays threaten revenues.
Negative ROIC, $2.78 billion in cancellations and supply-chain issues weigh on Boeing's outlook.
The Boeing Company (BA - Free Report) is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 27, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of 21 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pinned at $24.53 billion, indicating growth of 5.4% from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BA’s Earnings Surprise History
The company beat on earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other three, delivering an average negative surprise of 113.46%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Boeing this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -6.11%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Currently, Boeing has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Some stocks in the same industry that have the combination of factors indicating an earnings beat are Howmet Aerospace (HWM - Free Report) and General Dynamics (GD - Free Report) . Howmet Aerospace and General Dynamics have an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and +1.44%, respectively. HWM sports a Zacks Rank #1 and GD carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Factors That Might Have Impacted BA’s Q3 Performance
Boeing's commercial aircraft business could have been a key positive driver for third-quarter 2026 performance due to production stabilization and increased delivery volumes. The 737 program began transitioning toward a production rate of 47 aircraft per month, and Boeing continued working toward its target of delivering 500 737s during 2026. If production and deliveries progressed as planned in the third quarter, higher volumes could have supported revenue growth, better factory utilization and improved operating performance.
Rising international air travel increased aircraft utilization, driving higher demand for commercial jet maintenance, repairs, and related services, which likely supported sales volumes for Boeing’s commercial services. Growing defense needs must have boosted government spending on aftermarket aircraft repair, support, and upgrades, lifting demand for government jet services. Stronger commercial services revenues, combined with the typically higher margins of government services, are expected to have supported both top-line growth and operating earnings at Boeing Global Services in the third quarter.
Management expects third-quarter free cash flow to remain positive in the low hundreds of millions of dollars, even after a planned $700 million payment to the U.S. Department of Justice. If Boeing meets these expectations in the upcoming results, this would demonstrate greater financial stability and progress toward reducing debt.
During the third quarter, Boeing and GM completed the sale of HRL Laboratories, LLC, which was a 50/50 joint venture between Boeing and GM, to IBM. This could help management prioritize aircraft production, manufacturing quality and the execution of major customer programs during the quarter.
In the quarter under review, Boeing’s commercial aircraft deliveries grew 0.6% year over year, reflecting continued recovery in production and delivery momentum. On the defense side, shipments increased 3.1% from the prior-year period’s level. Improved deliveries should have bolstered both top and bottom-line performances of Boeing’s commercial and defense business segments in the third quarter.
During the second quarter, management said 787 engine deliveries had fallen behind plan in the first half of the year and that corrective actions were being coordinated with GE. The company also noted that outstanding seat certifications could make 787 deliveries uneven throughout the remainder of 2026. Engine availability and supplier readiness are important for increasing production rates and meeting annual delivery targets. Any further delays could push deliveries and cash receipts into later periods, weakening quarterly revenues. Although management anticipated engine deliveries to resume in the third quarter, uncertainty remained over whether the underlying supply-chain challenges would be fully resolved.
BA Stock Price Performance
Over the past month, the stock has lost 3.9% compared with the industry’s decline of 4.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BA Stock Trading at a Discount
Boeing is currently trading at a discount compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
General Dynamics is also trading at a discount, while Howmet Aerospace is trading at a premium compared to their industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis.
BA Stock’s Poor ROIC
The image below shows that BA stock’s trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) not only lags the peer group’s average return but also reflects a negative figure. This suggests that the company's investments are not yielding sufficient returns to cover its expenses.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Boeing remains one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world in terms of revenues, orders and deliveries, particularly in the commercial aerospace industry. BA benefited from a significant first-mover advantage, having established itself as one of the pioneers of modern commercial aviation. Over decades, Boeing has built deep relationships with airlines, aircraft lessors, governments and defense customers, creating a broad installed base that generates recurring demand for maintenance, spare parts, pilot training and fleet upgrades.
The order book is growing, but slow production, delayed deliveries and ongoing inspections could be turning customers away from Boeing’s commercial airplanes, leading to recent order cancellations. Aircraft order cancellations during the six months ended June 30, 2026, totaled $2.78 billion and primarily relate to 737 aircraft. Additionally, the 777X program has suffered repeated postponements and significant cost overruns.
End Note
Boeing is likely to have benefited from sustained growth in international air travel and robust demand for commercial aircraft, although persistent supply-chain constraints may have partially offset these gains during the quarter.
Given its current execution risks, consistent supply-chain issues and negative ROIC, it is advisable to avoid the stock at present.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Boeing Stock Before Q3 Earnings Release: To Buy or Not to Buy?
Key Takeaways
The Boeing Company (BA - Free Report) is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 27, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of 21 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pinned at $24.53 billion, indicating growth of 5.4% from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BA’s Earnings Surprise History
The company beat on earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other three, delivering an average negative surprise of 113.46%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Boeing this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -6.11%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Currently, Boeing has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks Worth a Look
Some stocks in the same industry that have the combination of factors indicating an earnings beat are Howmet Aerospace (HWM - Free Report) and General Dynamics (GD - Free Report) . Howmet Aerospace and General Dynamics have an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and +1.44%, respectively. HWM sports a Zacks Rank #1 and GD carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Factors That Might Have Impacted BA’s Q3 Performance
Boeing's commercial aircraft business could have been a key positive driver for third-quarter 2026 performance due to production stabilization and increased delivery volumes. The 737 program began transitioning toward a production rate of 47 aircraft per month, and Boeing continued working toward its target of delivering 500 737s during 2026. If production and deliveries progressed as planned in the third quarter, higher volumes could have supported revenue growth, better factory utilization and improved operating performance.
Rising international air travel increased aircraft utilization, driving higher demand for commercial jet maintenance, repairs, and related services, which likely supported sales volumes for Boeing’s commercial services. Growing defense needs must have boosted government spending on aftermarket aircraft repair, support, and upgrades, lifting demand for government jet services. Stronger commercial services revenues, combined with the typically higher margins of government services, are expected to have supported both top-line growth and operating earnings at Boeing Global Services in the third quarter.
Management expects third-quarter free cash flow to remain positive in the low hundreds of millions of dollars, even after a planned $700 million payment to the U.S. Department of Justice. If Boeing meets these expectations in the upcoming results, this would demonstrate greater financial stability and progress toward reducing debt.
During the third quarter, Boeing and GM completed the sale of HRL Laboratories, LLC, which was a 50/50 joint venture between Boeing and GM, to IBM. This could help management prioritize aircraft production, manufacturing quality and the execution of major customer programs during the quarter.
In the quarter under review, Boeing’s commercial aircraft deliveries grew 0.6% year over year, reflecting continued recovery in production and delivery momentum. On the defense side, shipments increased 3.1% from the prior-year period’s level. Improved deliveries should have bolstered both top and bottom-line performances of Boeing’s commercial and defense business segments in the third quarter.
During the second quarter, management said 787 engine deliveries had fallen behind plan in the first half of the year and that corrective actions were being coordinated with GE. The company also noted that outstanding seat certifications could make 787 deliveries uneven throughout the remainder of 2026. Engine availability and supplier readiness are important for increasing production rates and meeting annual delivery targets. Any further delays could push deliveries and cash receipts into later periods, weakening quarterly revenues. Although management anticipated engine deliveries to resume in the third quarter, uncertainty remained over whether the underlying supply-chain challenges would be fully resolved.
BA Stock Price Performance
Over the past month, the stock has lost 3.9% compared with the industry’s decline of 4.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BA Stock Trading at a Discount
Boeing is currently trading at a discount compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
General Dynamics is also trading at a discount, while Howmet Aerospace is trading at a premium compared to their industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis.
BA Stock’s Poor ROIC
The image below shows that BA stock’s trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) not only lags the peer group’s average return but also reflects a negative figure. This suggests that the company's investments are not yielding sufficient returns to cover its expenses.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Boeing remains one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world in terms of revenues, orders and deliveries, particularly in the commercial aerospace industry. BA benefited from a significant first-mover advantage, having established itself as one of the pioneers of modern commercial aviation. Over decades, Boeing has built deep relationships with airlines, aircraft lessors, governments and defense customers, creating a broad installed base that generates recurring demand for maintenance, spare parts, pilot training and fleet upgrades.
The order book is growing, but slow production, delayed deliveries and ongoing inspections could be turning customers away from Boeing’s commercial airplanes, leading to recent order cancellations. Aircraft order cancellations during the six months ended June 30, 2026, totaled $2.78 billion and primarily relate to 737 aircraft. Additionally, the 777X program has suffered repeated postponements and significant cost overruns.
End Note
Boeing is likely to have benefited from sustained growth in international air travel and robust demand for commercial aircraft, although persistent supply-chain constraints may have partially offset these gains during the quarter.
Given its current execution risks, consistent supply-chain issues and negative ROIC, it is advisable to avoid the stock at present.