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In the last reported quarter, RJF’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited primarily from an increase in revenues to record levels and robust growth in the assets under administration balance. However, higher expenses were the undermining factor.
Raymond James has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 6.67%.
Raymond James Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.28, unchanged over the past week. The figure indicates an increase of 5.5% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for sales of $4.19 billion suggests 12.3% year-over-year growth.
Management expects fiscal third-quarter asset management and related administrative fees to grow 11% sequentially, driven by higher Private Client Group assets and fee-based accounts balance at quarter end.
Factors to Influence Raymond James’ Q4 Earnings
Investment Banking (IB) Fees: After an impressive performance in the last few quarters, global deal-making activity moderated in the September quarter, weighed down by elevated interest rates, persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainties that complicated valuations and deal negotiations. Still, strategic buyers continued to pursue acquisitions to strengthen scale, operational resilience and supply-chain security amid a challenging business environment. So, overall global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) volume and value were muted as only a handful of big transactions dominated the space. This is expected to have hurt RJF’s advisory fees in the quarter.
IPO activity remained robust in the to-be-reported quarter, with proceeds climbing to a five-year high, despite a year-over-year decline in the number of deals. Meanwhile, global equity and debt issuance activity lost momentum as geopolitical uncertainties, persistent inflation and fluctuating energy prices dampened investor risk appetite. So, RJF’s underwriting fees are expected to have declined on a year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s total IB fees for the fiscal fourth quarter is pegged at $300.5 million, indicating a 4.9% decrease on a year-over-year basis.
Trading Revenues: The performance of RJF’s trading business is expected to have been strong in the to-be-reported quarter, supported by increased client activity and market volatility. Trading conditions were shaped by evolving expectations surrounding artificial intelligence, ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflationary pressures and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. These factors contributed to heightened volatility across equities and other asset classes, including commodities, fixed income and foreign exchange.
Net Interest Income (NII): In the to-be-reported quarter, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% for the first time in more than three years because of persistently high inflation. However, this is less likely to have affected Raymond James’ NII numbers much in the quarter.
The lending scenario is likely to have normalized in the September-end quarter, which, along with stabilizing funding/deposit costs, is expected to have offered much-needed support to RJF’s NII.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $567.1 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 2.9%.
Based on static interest rates and assuming unchanged quarter-end balances and net of the fiscal fourth-quarter fee billing collection of $2.1 billion, the company expects the aggregate of NII and Raymond James Bank Deposit Program (RJBDP) third-party fees in the fourth fiscal quarter to be flat sequentially.
Expenses: Raymond James consistently hires advisors and invests in franchises. Thus, overall expenses are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter. Due to a highly competitive environment and inflationary pressure, expenses are likely to have risen.
For fiscal 2026, management expects non-compensation expenses, excluding the bank loan loss provision for credit losses, unexpected legal and regulatory items, and non-GAAP adjustments to be $2.3 billion, representing 8% year-over-year growth.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for Raymond James
According to our proven model, the chances of RJF beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Raymond James is -0.82%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Finance Stocks Worth Considering
Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
Quarterly earnings estimates for Invesco have been revised marginally upward to 75 cents over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares (PB - Free Report) is +0.04%, and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prosperity Bancshares’ quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.63 per share.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Robust Trading Performance to Drive RJF's Q4 Earnings, IB to Hurt
Key Takeaways
Raymond James (RJF - Free Report) is set to announce fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 (ended Sept. 30) results on Oct. 28, after market close. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have risen on a year-over-year basis.
In the last reported quarter, RJF’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited primarily from an increase in revenues to record levels and robust growth in the assets under administration balance. However, higher expenses were the undermining factor.
Raymond James has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 6.67%.
Raymond James Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Raymond James Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Raymond James Financial, Inc. Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.28, unchanged over the past week. The figure indicates an increase of 5.5% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for sales of $4.19 billion suggests 12.3% year-over-year growth.
Management expects fiscal third-quarter asset management and related administrative fees to grow 11% sequentially, driven by higher Private Client Group assets and fee-based accounts balance at quarter end.
Factors to Influence Raymond James’ Q4 Earnings
Investment Banking (IB) Fees: After an impressive performance in the last few quarters, global deal-making activity moderated in the September quarter, weighed down by elevated interest rates, persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainties that complicated valuations and deal negotiations. Still, strategic buyers continued to pursue acquisitions to strengthen scale, operational resilience and supply-chain security amid a challenging business environment. So, overall global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) volume and value were muted as only a handful of big transactions dominated the space. This is expected to have hurt RJF’s advisory fees in the quarter.
IPO activity remained robust in the to-be-reported quarter, with proceeds climbing to a five-year high, despite a year-over-year decline in the number of deals. Meanwhile, global equity and debt issuance activity lost momentum as geopolitical uncertainties, persistent inflation and fluctuating energy prices dampened investor risk appetite. So, RJF’s underwriting fees are expected to have declined on a year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s total IB fees for the fiscal fourth quarter is pegged at $300.5 million, indicating a 4.9% decrease on a year-over-year basis.
Trading Revenues: The performance of RJF’s trading business is expected to have been strong in the to-be-reported quarter, supported by increased client activity and market volatility. Trading conditions were shaped by evolving expectations surrounding artificial intelligence, ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflationary pressures and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. These factors contributed to heightened volatility across equities and other asset classes, including commodities, fixed income and foreign exchange.
Net Interest Income (NII): In the to-be-reported quarter, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% for the first time in more than three years because of persistently high inflation. However, this is less likely to have affected Raymond James’ NII numbers much in the quarter.
The lending scenario is likely to have normalized in the September-end quarter, which, along with stabilizing funding/deposit costs, is expected to have offered much-needed support to RJF’s NII.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $567.1 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 2.9%.
Based on static interest rates and assuming unchanged quarter-end balances and net of the fiscal fourth-quarter fee billing collection of $2.1 billion, the company expects the aggregate of NII and Raymond James Bank Deposit Program (RJBDP) third-party fees in the fourth fiscal quarter to be flat sequentially.
Expenses: Raymond James consistently hires advisors and invests in franchises. Thus, overall expenses are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter. Due to a highly competitive environment and inflationary pressure, expenses are likely to have risen.
For fiscal 2026, management expects non-compensation expenses, excluding the bank loan loss provision for credit losses, unexpected legal and regulatory items, and non-GAAP adjustments to be $2.3 billion, representing 8% year-over-year growth.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for Raymond James
According to our proven model, the chances of RJF beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Raymond James is -0.82%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Finance Stocks Worth Considering
Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
Invesco (IVZ - Free Report) is scheduled to announce quarterly numbers on Oct. 27. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.10% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Quarterly earnings estimates for Invesco have been revised marginally upward to 75 cents over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares (PB - Free Report) is +0.04%, and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prosperity Bancshares’ quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.63 per share.